In Bavaria, Black is the new Green

In Bavaria, Black is the new Green

Bavaria’s premier Markus Söder sees the political upside in talking about the environment.

By LAURENZ GEHRKE 8/23/19, 10:00 AM CET Updated 9/8/19, 8:56 AM CET

https://www.politico.eu/article/bavaria-csu-goes-green-markus-soder-climate-conversion/

Markus Söder, leader of Bavaria's CSU, seems to have undergone a conversion on ecological issues | Christof Stache/AFP via Getty Images

MUNICH — Bavaria’s conservative state premier wants voters to believe he’s seen the light on climate protection.

In recent weeks, Markus Söder has voiced support for efforts to enshrine climate protection in Germany's constitution and announced plans to plant 30 million trees. He wants to introduce a series of eco-friendly measures in September, including a climate budget and car tax reform, and even called for a faster exit from coal.

All that marks a sharp deviation from the traditional approach of his Christian Social Union (CSU), Bavaria's sister party to Chancellor Angela Merkel's governing Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and a regional powerhouse that has dominated post-war politics in Germany's wealthiest state.

Climate protection hasn't been much of a priority for the party in the past and Söder's eco-shift stands in stark contrast to his campaign ahead of the 2018 Bavarian election, during which the CSU moved to the right. Its manifesto included no mention of climate change.

Less than a year later, Söder has changed his tune. "It's simply urgent," he said at his annual summer press conference in Berlin. "We need to take decisions now to save Creation," he added, using a biblical reference aimed at his party's Christian base.

But his political rivals question the depth of his conversion.

Green skepticism

"It's important to understand that it's not the CSU that has changed its tune, it's just Söder," Hans Urban, a Green lawmaker in the Bavarian state parliament, told POLITICO. "And he had big problems communicating that within his party," he added. "Many in the party could hardly choke back their anger."

While a handful of his party colleagues, such as former Transport Minister Alexander Dobrindt, have also pitched in with ideas, plenty of CSU members were less enthusiastic about Söder's sudden green shift, and his suggestion of a faster coal phase-out prompted a rebuke from Berlin.

Many environmentalists aren't impressed either. While welcoming the Bavarian premier's greater focus on climate change, Greens have criticized Söder's proposals as either going not far enough — the CSU chief remains opposed to a carbon tax, for instance — or as empty promises.

Urban pointed to the Bavarian government's restriction on wind power stations as an example. "His pledge to build 200 windmills in Bavaria is simply not credible because he's not removing the rule to build them far away from houses," he said. "That means there just won't be enough space."

Cows graze on a meadow in front of wind turbines near a Bavarian village | Christof Stache/AFP via Getty Images

According to the so-called 10-H rule introduced under Söder's predecessor Horst Seehofer — who now serves as federal interior minister — wind turbines must be built at least 10 times their own height from any habitation — which works out to more than 2 kilometers. However, there are only few spots in Bavaria that meet this requirement, making the development of new installations difficult.

Meanwhile, Söder's attempts to forge a greener image could be upended by an ongoing court case.

The NGO Deutsche Umwelthilfe wants to hold the Bavarian premier personally responsible for failing to implement court-ordered measures to tackle endemic levels of cars pollution in parts of Munich.

The NGO's leader Jürgen Resch accused Söder and other senior Bavarian politicians of ignoring the court decisions, and wants them held in jail for contempt of court. Söder denies he's done anything wrong.

The European Court of Justice held a hearing in the case on Tuesday. One of the court’s lawyers will issue an opinion November 14 ahead of a final decision.

Electoral threat

Some of Söder's critics view his ecological U-turn as a ploy to win back votes from the Greens. His 2018 attempt to pull the CSU to the right to stop losing votes to the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) failed. The CSU won 37 percent in the state election, a historic low, the Greens surged to second place with 18 percent while the AfD took a record 10 percent.

On a federal level, the Greens are within touching distance of the CDU/CSU alliance at around 25 percent, according to recent polls. In May's European Parliament election the Greens were in second place in Bavaria with 19 percent of the vote, although far behind the still-dominant CSU, which took 41 percent.

Since outlining the green plan, Söder's personal popularity has soared, rising by 17 percentage points to overtake the Greens' national co-leader Robert Habeck, according to one nationwide poll.

"The green element is going to have to remain an integral part of the party program" — Heinrich Oberreuter, professor of political science and CSU member

Söder's green shift is creating expectations of a change in environmental policy among many voters, which is leading to  tensions with the CSU's traditional backers.

The Bavarian government has already been forced to move on environmental politics this spring following a mass petition calling for a new conservation law. The state now has Germany's strictest rules aimed at protecting bees and other insects, irritating the powerful agriculture lobby BBV, an old ally.

"It means yet more rules for Bavarian farmers," said Georg Wimmer, the BBV's deputy secretary-general.

Heinrich Oberreuter, professor emeritus of political science at the University of Passau — and a CSU member — said the petition's success "marked a painful setback for the CSU."

"It's good if more and more politicians put climate change on their agenda" — Climate change protester

Oberreuter said his party's reorientation is an attempt to connect with the prevalent political mood. "Climate change and the environment are topics of the future," he said, adding that it is important to address such issues to reach young voters left cold by the CSU's more traditional conservative policies.

"The green element is going to have to remain an integral part of the party program," Oberreuter added. He said that Söder's strategy may well succeed in winning back voters from the Greens if the CSU "manages to convey the message that a one-topic approach is unsustainable and that a balance needs to be struck between ecological objectives and the economy."

Such a centrist stance doesn't strike a chord with climate activists, however.

"It's good if more and more politicians put climate change on their agenda," one protester at a Fridays for Future demonstration in Munich's historic center said on a particularly quiet day in mid-August that saw the activists outnumbered by tourists waiting for the famous Glockenspiel.

Markus Söder attends an outdoor cabinet meeting focused on environmental issues in Munich's Hofgarten | Lino Mirgeler/AFP via Getty Images

"But it's not enough," he added. Yet to him, even the Greens aren't going far enough — he criticized the party as "hypocrites," citing a picture posted by a Greens leader showing her eating ice cream with a plastic spoon in California.

Despite such criticism, the Greens' rise in Bavaria continues. Recent polls put them at 22 percent, with the CSU's support at 37 percent.

Many voters, meanwhile, eye Söder's green about-face with skepticism. Half of Bavarians don't believe his change of heart to be genuine, according to one poll, while in a nationwide survey, only 28 percent of Germans described Söder's climate policy announcements as credible.

Additional reporting by Joshua Posaner.

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