Fears of
no-deal chaos as ministers forced to publish secret Brexit papers
Operation
Yellowhammer documents predict public disorder, rising prices and disruptions
to food and medicines
Heather
Stewart and Peter Walker
Wed 11 Sep
2019 21.03 BSTLast modified on Wed 11 Sep 2019 21.20 BST
A no-deal
Brexit could result in rising food and fuel prices, disruption to medicine supplies
and public disorder on Britain’s streets, according to secret documents the
government was forced by MPs to publish on Wednesday.
A five-page
document spelling out the government’s “planning assumptions” under Operation
Yellowhammer – the government’s no-deal plan – was disclosed in response to a
“humble address” motion.
The content
of the document was strikingly similar to the plan leaked to the Sunday Times
in August, which the government dismissed at the time as out of date.
That
document was described as a “base case”; but the new document claims to be a
“worst-case scenario”.
Led by
former attorney-general Dominic Grieve, and passed by the House of Commons on
Monday night as Boris Johnson prepared to suspend parliament, the motion
demanded the publication of the documents, large sections of which had been
leaked in August.
At the
time, Downing Street claimed the document had been superseded, and government
sources suggested it had been leaked by disaffected former ministers. Former
chancellor Philip Hammond later demanded an apology from Johnson, when it
emerged the date on the document was August, after the PM took power.
The
document, which says it outlines “reasonable worst case planning assumptions”
for no deal Brexit, highlights the risk of border delays, given an estimate
that up to 85% of lorries crossing the Channel might not be ready for a new
French customs regime.
“The lack of trader readiness combined with
limited space in French ports to hold ‘unready’ HGVs could reduce the flow rate
to 40%-60% of current levels within one day as unready HGVs will fill the ports
and block flow,” it warns.
This
situation could last for up to three months, and disruption might last
“significantly longer”, it adds, with lorries facing waits of between 1.5 days
and 2.5 days to cross the border.
The
reliance of medical supplies on cross-Channel routes “make them particularly
vulnerable to severe extended delays”, the report says, with some medicines
having such short shelf lives they cannot be stockpiled. A lack of veterinary
medicines could increase the risk of disease outbreaks, it adds.
On food
supplies, supplies of “certain types of fresh food” would be reduced, the
document warns, as well as other items such as packaging.
It says:
“In combination, these two factors will not cause an overall shortage of food
in the UK but will reduce availability and choice of products and will increase
price, which could impact vulnerable groups.”
Later, it
adds: “Low income groups will be disproportionately affected by any price rises
in food and fuel.”
On law and
order it warns: “Protests and counter-protests will take place across the UK
and may absorb significant amounts of police resource. There may also be a rise
in public disorder and community tensions.”
The
documents also outline a potential impact on cross-border financial services
and law enforcement information sharing.
It says
Gibraltar could face significant delays on its border with Spain, with
four-hour waits likely “for at least a few months”.
The
document also concedes that there will be a return to some sort of hard Irish
border despite a UK insistence it will not impose checks: “This model is likely
to prove unsustainable due to significant economic, legal and biosecurity risks
and no effective unilateral mitigations to address this will be available.”
The
expectation, it adds, is that some businesses will move to avoid tariffs, and
others will face higher costs
The
government refused to comply with the second part of MPs’ request, which
demanded the release of messages relating to the suspension of parliament sent
by Johnson’s senior adviser, Dominic Cummings and various other aides on
WhatsApp, Facebook, other social media and both their personal and professional
phones.
In a letter
to Grieve, Michael Gove, the chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster, said the
request was “inappropriate in principle and in practice, would on its own terms
purport to require the government to contravene the law, and is singularly
unfair to the named individuals”.
Grieve told
MPs on Monday he had information from public officials that the correspondence
contained a “scandal”.
The House
of Commons voted, by 311 to 302, for the government to publish the information,
giving the prime minister a deadline of 11pm on Wednesday to comply.
Gove has
been given the task of ramping up no-deal preparations across government. The
chancellor, Sajid Javid, set aside an extra £2bn at last week’s spending review
for the task, taking the total now allocated to no-deal planning to £8bn.
Johnson has
lost every vote in parliament since he became prime minister in July, including
on his two attempts to trigger a snap general election for next month.
The prime
minister sparked a fierce backlash inside the Tory party last week by removing
the whip from 21 rebels who supported backbench-led legislation to force him to
request a Brexit delay if he fails to pass a new deal through parliament by
mid-October.
Those expelled
include former justice secretary David Gauke, Hammond, and Winston Churchill’s
grandson, Nicholas Soames.
Chief whip
Mark Spencer has now written to some of them, confirming that they are entitled
to appeal the decision – and hinting that future loyalty to the government
could boost their cause.
One of the
21 MPs said: “It was one of the most self-unaware letters I’ve received in some
time. From people who are serially disloyal and decimated their own minority
government. I don’t want it back ...
“All it did
in my local community was confirm that the Conservative party is now led by a
narrow sect who wouldn’t be out of place in the Muppet version of the
Handmaiden’s tale. It’s like being asked by its captain if you want to get back
on the Titanic.”
Senior
Conservatives expect the whips to be less accommodating to those MPs who have
been fiercely critical of the government’s stance.
Sam Gyimah
has received a letter but is not intending to seek to have the whip restored,
the Guardian understands; while Hammond is hoping to challenge the original
suspension in a bid to have it overturned.
Chaos is
being normalised. It is all part of Boris Johnson’s pernicious plan
Paul Mason
To expedite
his power grab, the prime minister has brought darkness to our democracy and to
our streets. We must resist
@paulmasonnews
Wed 11 Sep
2019 13.17 BSTLast modified on Wed 11 Sep 2019 13.52 BST
‘The aim of
Boris Johnson is to create a darkest hour in which, though he created the
darkness, he eventually gets to switch on the lights.’ Photograph: Toby
Melville/AFP/Getty Images
On
Saturday, for the first time in living memory, neo-fascists were chanting the
name of the serving prime minister. Supporters of the English Defence League
and the Democratic Football Lads Alliance wandered around Whitehall some drunk,
harassing random remain protesters and shouting into the faces of journalists
until, inevitably, they attacked the police.
It’s part
of an unnerving trend that’s emerged in the past two weeks: the normalisation
of chaos.
We have a
parliament suspended against its will. We have ministers threatening to break
the law. We have allegations that a network of advisers inside Whitehall are
using encrypted messaging to circumvent legal scrutiny. And we have briefings
to selected journalists that the government might suspend the rule of law by
invoking the Emergency Powers Act.
Yet at the
end of the headlines there is always the weather and the same jokey riff
between a presenter and a hapless BBC political correspondent. Nine out of 10
stories on the front pages of news sites remain focused on dating, food fads
and the antics of minor royals.
Nothing in
this bleak and blurry picture is happening by accident. Listen to the reported
promises of Dominic Cummings: he will “wreck” the Labour party conference; he
will “purge” the Tory rebels; he will “smash” Jeremy Corbyn and he reportedly
does not care if Northern Ireland “falls into the sea”.
This is a
power-grab run to a script, whereby every time the government is thwarted by
MPs it simply ups the ante: between now and the European council meeting in
October, it will stage one calculated outrage after another.
One of the
most dangerous factors in this situation is the incomprehension of Britain’s
technocratic elites. At Eton they might ask pupils to write the imaginary
speech they would give while leading a military coup, but on the philosophy,
politics and economics course at Oxford, it is generally assumed you are
heading for a career in the governance of a stable democracy.
Few are
prepared to address the material roots and class dynamics of this crisis,
because nobody taught them to do so. But they are clear.
In Britain,
as in the US, the business elite has fractured into two groups: one wants to
defend the multilateral global order and globalised free trade; another desires
to break the system. Here, as with Trump, that group includes the fracking
bosses, the tax-dodging private equity bosses and the speculative ends of
property and high finance.
‘Listen to
the reported promises of Dominic Cummings: he will ‘wreck’ the Labour party
conference; he will ‘purge’ the Tory rebels; he will ‘smash’ Jeremy Corbyn.’
Here, as
with Trump, the instability they need also suits the geopolitical aims of
Vladimir Putin – whose mouthpieces Sputnik, Ruptly and RT are offering quiet
support for Boris Johnson’s narrative, if not the man himself. But this is also
a transatlantic project of the Trump administration. For Trump, the prize of a
no-deal Brexit on 31 October is a pliant, shattered trading partner and a
potential accomplice for the provocations he is planning against Iran.
The liberal
establishment – found in the corporate boardrooms, among the masters of
Oxbridge colleges, in law and medicine and among the old-money landowners –
does not know what to do. Meanwhile the working class is more divided
culturally than at any point since Oswald Mosley tried to march down Cable
Street.
I don’t
want to encourage paranoia, but as a mental exercise ask yourself: if there was
a single mind coordinating this crisis, what would it be thinking now?
First, that
the fragility of the unwritten constitution is a proven fact. If parliament can
be prorogued once, it can be prorogued again. Second, that parts of the British
media have no stomach for the task of actively defending the rule of law and
the principle of accountability.
Third, that
an atmosphere of weariness is descending on the mass of people. They were
already weary of Brexit and are now getting weary of endless headlines about a
constitutional crisis that never seems to end.
In the
1930s, the psychologist Erich Fromm noted that the ideal conditions for the
rise of dictators and autocrats was a “state of inner tiredness and
resignation”, which he attributed to the pace of life in stressed,
industrialised societies.
Among the
German working class, Fromm observed “a deep feeling of resignation, of
disbelief in their leaders, of doubt about the value of any kind of political
organization and political activity … deep within themselves many had given up
any hope in the effectiveness of political action”.
It is this
above all that we have to fight – like sleep after a night shift – in the next
five weeks. Among the urban, educated and salaried working class this moment
already feels like the start of the poll tax rebellion. But in small town,
deindustrialised communities there is confusion. People in those places thought
that Brexit was a rebellion for democracy against the elite, but here’s the
actual elite – the Queen, Jacob Rees-Mogg and co – shutting down democracy. How
we address that mood will determine the outcome of the situation.
Professional
politics has come to focus on micro-polling and message testing, but the most
instinctive thing to do is get down to a pub this Friday night, in a place you
know there’s going to be support for Johnson, and calmly argue the toss.
The
transparent aim of Johnson is to create a chaotic situation, in which decent
people become too frightened by fascists and football hooligans to protest; in
which the progressive majority of voters are otherised as “luvvies, climate
loons and traitors” – a darkest hour in which, though he created the darkness,
he eventually gets to switch on the lights.
We need now
to reach across party loyalties and demographic differences to explain face to
face: what we’re living through is not normal, nor accidental. It’s a
fabricated chaos. And the road back to normality lies through getting Johnson
out of Downing Street.
• Paul
Mason is a writer and broadcaster on economics and social justice
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