Electric and hybrid car sales to rise to new
global record in 2024
International Energy Agency says 17m vehicles will be
sold this year, up more than 20% compared with 2023
Jasper
Jolly
Tue 23 Apr
2024 07.00 CEST
Electric
and plug-in hybrid car sales will jump to a new global record in 2024 despite
slowing growth in some markets, according to forecasts from the influential
International Energy Agency (IEA).
The
Paris-based forecaster said that 17m battery electric vehicles and plug-in
hybrid electric vehicles will be sold in 2024, up more than 20% compared with
2023.
The IEA
also said most electric cars will cost the same as petrol equivalents by 2030
as prices drop. Tesla lowered prices over the weekend as it fights to retain
its market share amid fierce competition from Chinese rivals such as BYD, its
closest contender as the world’s largest producer of battery electric cars.
Carmakers
have complained that growth in demand for electric cars is slowing, forcing
them to offer discounts to compete. While this could damage some carmakers,
lower prices are also likely to accelerate the transition, the IEA said.
Fatih
Birol, the energy economist who heads the IEA, acknowledged that sales are
stronger in some countries than others, but added that there was clear momentum
for the transition.
“Rather
than tapering off, the global EV revolution appears to be gearing up for a new
phase of growth,” he said.
“The wave
of investment in battery manufacturing suggests the EV supply chain is
advancing to meet automakers’ ambitious plans for expansion. As a result, the
share of EVs on the roads is expected to continue to climb rapidly.”
In the
first quarter of 2024 there were more sales of electric and plug-in hybrids
(which combine a petrol engine with a battery) than in the whole of 2020, the
IEA said.
Hybrids
still emit large amounts of CO2 when in use, although some in the car industry
argue that – if used correctly – they are a necessary step to lower emissions
until public charging infrastructure improves.
Some
countries have concentrated on encouraging electric vehicle adoption:
four-fifths of all cars sold in Norway in 2023 were electric. However, policies
vary widely, with China and richer European countries generally ahead of the
rest of the world, including the US.
The UK was
Europe’s biggest electric car market over the first three months of 2023 for
the first time, according to Matthias Schmidt, an independent analyst.
The timing
of the adoption of electric cars in Europe is heavily influenced by the
regulations, as carmakers try to eke out profits from their petrol and diesel
models while avoiding fines for failing to sell enough electric cars.
Schmidt
said he expected UK electric sales in 2024 to remain equal to or slightly
higher than Germany, which has a bigger population. Schmidt said German sales
were suffering due to subsidy cuts, and because manufacturers are deliberately
holding back sales until 2025, when tougher rules on average CO2 emissions come
in.
“That delay
will give Chinese manufacturers a small window to manipulate, because from 2025
the traditional manufacturers will really begin their electric vehicle push in
earnest,” Schmidt said.
In the UK
the government removed subsidies from privately bought electric cars in 2022.
The Society
of Motor Manufacturers and Traders on Tuesday raised concerns about the
separate grants for zero-emissions lorries. The lobby group said the grants
were not being used because it takes too long to certify that trucks produce
zero emissions.
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