Populist parties’ divisions jeopardise chances of
setting European agenda
Survey shows supporters of nationalist parties hold
widely differing views on EU membership, migration and support for Ukraine
Jon Henley
Europe correspondent
Thu 21 Mar
2024 05.00 GMT
Populist
and nationalist parties fighting the European elections in June are deeply
divided on almost all key issues, according to a survey, in a finding that
questions their chances of defining the bloc’s agenda even in the event of a
predicted far-right surge.
However,
the report, by the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), also said
pro-EU parties risked mobilising the Eurosceptic vote if they continued to ape
hard-right policies rather than coming up with persuasive alternatives.
“Simply
copying far-right policies can make mainstream parties look inauthentic,” said
the report’s co-author Mark Leonard. “The better alternative is to focus on the
weaknesses of Eurosceptic parties and make a geopolitical case for Europe in
the time of Trump.”
ECFR
polling published last month suggested populist, nationalist and far-right
parties were on track to finish first in nine EU states – including Austria,
France, Italy, the Netherlands and Poland – in the June elections, and second
or third in nine more.
Pro-European
mainstream parties in the parliament’s three big centre-right, centre-left and
liberal groups could still end up in a much better position than many expect –
and even with a workable majority – because of disunity in the anti-EU camp.
Supporters
of nationalist parties are divided on issues as central as their country’s
continuing membership of the EU, migration and support for Ukraine, the polling
showed, while the parties themselves are on radically different trajectories.
Brothers of
Italy, for example, was previously seen as a radical post-fascist party, the
report’s authors noted, but since its leader, Giorgia Meloni, became prime
minister last year it has come to be considered “rather mainstream” by many in
Europe.
Poland’s
Law and Justice (PiS), on the other hand, has evolved from a conservative,
Euro-critical party allied with Britain’s Conservatives to a fiercely
anti-European force, particularly on rule of law issues such as judicial and
media independence.
The
polling, of more than 17,000 people in 12 EU member states representing more
than 70% of the seats in the European parliament, found voter perceptions of
what far-right parties really wanted to achieve varied considerably.
In only
four member states – Austria (58%), Germany (55%), the Netherlands (63%) and
Sweden (59%) – does the electorate as a whole believe that the leader of the
main far-right party in their country aims ultimately to take it out of the EU.
Few
Brothers of Italy voters (15%) and few Italian voters in general (17%) felt
this was Meloni’s aim – so mainstream parties in Italy, but also in Spain and
Portugal, where scores were similar, will struggle to portray a far-right surge
as a danger for the EU.
However,
while only 21% of PiS voters thought “Polexit” was the party’s objective, 52%
of the broader electorate did – giving pro-European forces a chance to mobilise
mainstream voters against the threat PiS could pose to Poland’s EU membership.
Far-right
voters were split on several other major issues. On EU support for Ukraine, PiS
(58%) and Sweden Democrat (52%) voters were supportive, with backers of
Portugal’s Chega (42%) and Spain’s Vox (35%) also moderately in favour.
However,
voters for Hungary’s Fidesz (88%), Austria’s Freedom party (FPO, 70%), and
Germany’s AfD (69%) were opposed to helping Ukraine recover lost territory,
instead believing Europe should push Kyiv towards a negotiated settlement with
Russia.
On
migration, voters for the Dutch PVV (81%), FPO (72%), Sweden Democrats (60%),
AfD and France’s RN (both 59%) were concerned most by immigration; for Brothers
of Italy (54%), Spain’s Vox (53%), Chega (56%), and Fidesz (54%) it was
emigration.
For the
broader electorate, immigration was the leading concern only in Germany and
Austria. Across all 12 countries, barely 15% saw it as the greatest crisis of
the past 10 years, behind the economy, Covid, climate change and the war in
Ukraine.
The survey
showed voters were more interested in what they perceived as politicians’
motivations than in their policies, the report said, warning leaders “not to
focus too much on policy while appearing removed from voters’ core concerns”.
Large
numbers of Europeans – including many mainstream voters – believed pro-EU
leaders are bent on boosting immigration (45%), increasing energy prices to
combat climate change (43%) and transferring more national powers to Brussels
(33%).
The report
identified two key strategies of pro-European parties – copying far-right
policies, notably on migration, and highlighting the EU’s record on Russia’s
war on Ukraine, the climate crisis, and Covid – but said both risked
backfiring.
Many voters
do not recognise the bloc’s success in addressing these challenges, the polling
showed: on the pandemic, for example, only in Portugal (56%) and Spain (42%)
did large numbers of voters see the EU as having played a positive role.
Rather than
adopting far-right policies, the polling showed mainstream parties should
pursue “polarising” tactics to mobilise the pro-EU vote, especially in
countries such as Austria, France, Germany and Poland, where 20% or more of
voters believed far-right parties wanted ultimately to leave the EU, the
authors concluded.
And rather
than vaunting the European Commission’s record, they should make the case for a
stronger, more defence-minded Europe to counter further Russian aggression and
the threat of Donald Trump’s return to power in the US.
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