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Analysis
Hester row and Anderson defection have left Sunak
weaker than ever
Pippa
Crerar
Political
editor
Even centrist Tories are questioning if the PM can
last until autumn after twin blows of donor scandal and rightwinger’s move to
Reform
Sun 17 Mar 2024 18.59 GMT
On the
fringes of cabinet last Tuesday ministers chatted in hushed tones about the
Tory mega-donor Frank Hester’s “clearly racist” remarks about Diane Abbott,
revealed by the Guardian the previous night, but concluded that “we’ve got to
get the money in”.
It took No
10 until the end of the day to condemn his words as “racist and wrong” – 24
hours after the original story broke – while Sunak himself didn’t comment until
prime minister’s questions the next day. “It went on too long,” admits one
cabinet minister.
Downing
Street’s handling of the row had uncomfortable echoes of the dying days of
Boris Johnson’s premiership for some Tory MPs, with the instinctive reaction to
double down and tough it out rather than facing up to the inevitable
consequences.
It was not
the only difficult moment for Sunak, in what was one of the most troubled weeks
since he become prime minister, and which followed a budget that failed to
deliver any shift in the polls.
The former
Tory deputy chair Lee Anderson defected to Reform, angering the right of the
party, who felt he should not have been stripped of the whip, and the rest, who
believed it was a mistake for Sunak to have given him such a high-profile role
in the first place.
The
despondency that has existed for months in Tory ranks turned to despair, and
the anxiety among MPs about their electoral prospects with Sunak at the helm
has led to yet another bout of leadership speculation.
“This is
the weakest Rishi’s been since becoming leader and the most danger he’s been
in,” said one former minister. “Nothing is moving the dial and now No 10’s
judgment has been thrown into question too.”
This has
all led to speculation in recent days that some MPs on the right of the party
want Penny Mordaunt, the leader of the Commons, to act as a “stalking horse”
candidate to trigger a leadership contest before the next general election.
Mordaunt’s
allies deny that she has been involved in any plotting, suggesting that the
briefing has come from her enemies instead. It is widely known in Westminster,
however, that she has been doing the rounds of constituency parties across the
country.
So far,
just a handful of Tory rightwingers appear to want a contest before the
election. Some have majorities of just a few thousand and are fearful of losing
their seats.
Yet for the
first time some figures in the centre of the party are also having doubts that
Sunak can last the course. “How can we get rid of another prime minister this
close to an election but, at the same time, how can we keep him when we all
know what the result will be?” one senior minister pondered.
Many of
those who are downbeat about their prospects at the election still think it
would be madness to try to ditch Sunak.
“The public
has decided, with some justification, that we are out of touch, out of ideas,
out of control and out of time,” a second former minister said. “But a cynical
febrile last-ditch coup as the day of public judgment approaches will just make
it worse.”
Government
insiders say that even Sunak is concerned that, with the mood on the Tory
benches increasingly feverish and the party looking ungovernable, the situation
is not sustainable until November, when he is expected to hold the election.
But the
prime minister has been convinced that the best thing he can do is wait until
the autumn, when the green shoots of economic recovery might have started to
appear. “We need to sit tight and wait for the economy to turn,” said one
senior Tory.
“The vast
majority of MPs want the extra time,” said one No 10 source. “They want us to
be able to make progress on all these positive indicators like inflation and
mortgage rates coming down, the economy starting to grow and giving people the
chance to feel it in their pockets.”
Sunak’s
allies are rallying behind him. The transport secretary, Mark Harper, told MPs
on Sunday to “have some confidence” in the prime minister and remember that
“politics is a team game”.
Another
cabinet minister, who said it would be “absolutely disastrous” for the Tories
to have yet another leadership contest, warned: “If we’re to be a credible
government we need to stop this self-indulgence, fix the bayonets and line up
behind the leader. If we don’t hang together, we’ll hang separately.”
Sunak
himself will get a chance to address his party at the 1922 Committee meeting of
backbenchers on Wednesday, when he is expected to urge them to put on a united
front and “stick with the plan” amid Tory hopes that inflation figures will
continue to fall this week.
He will
also have an opportunity to focus on his Rwanda plan, which returns to the
Commons on Monday, and which the Tory right hopes could help keep the Reform
party at bay, with yet more speculation that Nigel Farage is planning to return
to the political frontline.
The most
perilous moment for Sunak will come at the 2 May local elections, which are
predicted to be disastrous for the Tories. It could be the moment that tips
jittery Tory MPs over the edge, and which could trigger the 53 letters needed
for a confidence vote, albeit accidentally. “If No 10 doesn’t take what the
plotters are doing seriously and have a plan for post-locals, they’re leaving
themselves desperately exposed,” a former minister said.
“Enough
colleagues might start to say ‘maybe we do need change’. I don’t think we have
53 idiots in the party, but rebellions start with a smaller number and grow …
it’s dangerous to underestimate these things.”
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