In shadow of Trump, Putin and Orbán, EU struggles
to get its act together on Ukraine
It’s time for EU leaders to strike a deal — with or
without taciturn Hungarian leader — to send cash to Ukraine and a message to
the world.
FEBRUARY 1,
2024 4:00 AM CET
BY BARBARA
MOENS AND JACOPO BARIGAZZI
BRUSSELS —
The European Union still has Ukraine’s back.
That’s the
message the EU wants to send to Kyiv this week, just before the third
anniversary of Russia’s invasion. It wants to send that same message to Moscow,
and even to Donald Trump.
To fulfill
that aim, the EU wants to give Kyiv €50 billion and increase weapons shipments;
slap new sanctions on Russia; and skim off the profits from frozen Russian
assets to support the reconstruction of Ukraine.
“We would
just have to put a nice ribbon on this package and send it to Kyiv,” said one
EU diplomat, granted anonymity to speak freely, as were others in this piece.
Should that
fail, EU leaders are crafting a Plan B — in case Orbán blocks the package. And
that fear seems to be defining this summit.
When EU
leaders meet in Brussels on Thursday, a long-awaited deal on the €50 billion
aid package would ensure Kyiv has “stable, predictable and sustainable
financial support,” according to a text the leaders aim to adopt, seen by
POLITICO. Without Western support for Ukraine’s war-shattered economy, Kyiv
will not be able to keep fighting Russia for long.
But the
pressure is on the EU to act now, with Washington struggling to agree on its
own financial backing for Ukraine. And if Trump returns to the White House
after the November election, Europe could potentially be left on its own in
backing Ukraine and fending off Russia.
Ahead of
the leaders’ meeting, diplomats and officials expressed anxiety, hoping that
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán would drop his opposition to the Ukraine
aid package — a measure that technically needs the agreement of all 27
governments of the EU.
“The level
of nervousness is quite high,” said one senior EU official.
Orbán has
repeatedly stressed he does not believe in a military solution to the conflict
in Ukraine. Sending more money and weapons to Kyiv will only escalate the war
instead of resolving it, the Hungarian leader argues.
Weeks of
negotiating with Budapest, using both carrots and sticks, have so far failed,
with Orbán accusing the EU of “blackmail.” As is often the case with Orbán, a
solution is likely to be found only when he is in the room with his
counterparts.
“We are
looking for a solution with 27,” an Elysée official said. “We hope the
Hungarian prime minister does the same.”
Hungary’s
Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has adamantly opposed the opening of accession
negotiations for Ukraine | John Thys/AFP via Getty Images
Plan B
The leaders
failed to reach a deal in December, and since then EU officials have been
drawing up a plan B: working around Orbán’s objections by agreeing to both the
EU’s long-term budget and the Ukraine aid package — with the backing of 26
countries.
But that’s
far from ideal, the diplomats stressed. Not only is a deal with 26 rather than
27 technically more cumbersome, it also undermines the EU’s unity on Ukraine —
sending a negative signal to Kyiv, Moscow and Washington.
It could
also push the frustration of leaders with
Orbán to another level, triggering discussions on stripping away
Hungary’s EU voting rights.
“The
underlying question is: what does Orbán really want?” said Sander Tordoir of
the Centre for European Reform. “Does he want money? Or does he have bigger
political goals to disrupt the EU, for example to please Putin?”
Orbán may
not be so isolated for long, with polls forecasting a surge in support for
Euroskeptic parties in the EU election this June, which could make the European
Parliament more Russia-friendly.
“Orban’s
support for Putin is becoming more than obvious,” said EU lawmaker Rasa
Juknevičienė from Lithuania. “I hope that all the other 26 countries will show
unity and leadership in finding a solution to what is an existential issue for
Europe. Ukraine is fighting for us too.”
Boosting
defense
Ukraine’s
financial lifeline isn’t the only support measure the EU is struggling with.
A
longstanding ask from Ukraine to use Russia’s frozen assets for its post-war
reconstruction is moving forward — albeit with baby steps. EU countries so far
have only agreed to transfer the profits of frozen Russian assets to a separate
account. That’s despite a push from the United States government to confiscate
not just the profits, but also the assets themselves.
This
weekend, Brussels is also set to kick start discussions on new sanctions
against Russia. But diplomats are playing down any chances for meaty measures.
After the EU sanctioned Russian diamonds in the fall, there are few areas left
to target with big-ticket restrictions.
The war in
Ukraine has also laid bare the EU’s limited arms production capacities, with
Brussels now struggling to catch up after decades of underinvestment. A
potential Trump return puts extra pressure on Europe to beef up its defense
capabilities — especially given his recent vow to strike a “peace deal” with
Russian President Vladimir Putin over the heads of Ukraine and the EU.
“If the
world becomes even more difficult, for example as a result of the possible
election results in the USA, then the European Union must become all the
stronger,” German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said on Wednesday. “And France and
Germany must take on this task so that this is actually possible. … Europe is
the strongest national interest we have.”
On
Thursday, European leaders are also expected to discuss the EU’s military aid
to Ukraine as they struggle to reach a deal on the European Peace Facility —
the off-budget cash pot used to reimburse capitals for arms delivery to
Ukraine.
The leaders
failed to reach a deal in December, and since then EU officials have been
drawing up a plan B | Pool photo by Olivier Hoslet/AFP via Getty Images
The idea is
to sign off as soon as possible on a €5 billion top-up and to move toward joint
European procurement of weapons. Hungary, which was critical of this decision,
has softened its line on setting up a new branch of the peace facility, the
Ukraine Assistance Fund to provide weapons to Ukraine. Still, diplomats said
that more work needs to be done for all European capitals to sign off on it.
Speaking to
reporters in Brussels on Wednesday evening, Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas
summed up the mood when she said: “There’s definitely geopolitical pressure …
Is Europe able to deliver on the promises given?”
“Putin and
Russia … don’t believe in multilateralism, they don’t believe that we are able
to keep this unity. And if we are falling apart, then it’s definitely a win for
the Russian side.”
Gregorio
Sorgi, Nicolas Camut, Claudia Chiappa and Clea Caulcutt contributed reporting.
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