EU watches closely as Putin courts Africa

 

EU watches closely as Putin courts Africa

BY NICHOLAS VINOCUR

JULY 28, 2023 7:00 AM CET

https://www.politico.eu/newsletter/brussels-playbook/eu-watches-closely-as-putin-courts-africa/

 

POLITICO Brussels Playbook

By NICK VINOCUR

with ZOYA SHEFTALOVICH

 

GOOD MORNING. This is Nick Vinocur, bringing you Playbook from a rain-soaked and increasingly empty Brussels. The wetness makes a jarring contrast with reports of extreme heat and out-of-control fires hitting Greece, Italy, Portugal, Croatia and several North African countries. A quick rundown of events …

 

RING OF FIRE: If you look at a map of hot spots around the Mediterranean, it roughly matches Odysseus’ travels in Ulysses, stretching all the way from eastern Anatolia to the Atlantic coast of Portugal.

 

In Sicily, where temperatures this week topped 47C, resorts and hotels around the island have been forced to evacuate their guests. Read Antoaneta Roussi’s harrowing and beautifully told dispatch from Riposto, Sicily. “As the reality sinks in … the theme of our long-awaited Italian break emerges: Dante’s Inferno,” she writes.

 

In western Greece, fires spread to a military barracks on Thursday, causing an ammunition stockpile to explode. Beachgoers were evacuated and even firefighters have left the area, my colleague Nektaria Stamouli reports. Fires continue to rage on the islands of Rhodes, Corfu and Evia, while in Athens a fire broke out in an industrial area.

 

In Croatia, wildfires engulfed hills around the coastal town of Cavtat, south of Dubrovnik, on Thursday, and it took 130 firefighters battling blazes all night to bring the flames under control.

 

And so on. Climate experts warn the wild weather is part of an accelerating pattern, as Zia Weise reports. But beware of parroting reports about the Gulf Stream “shutting down” by 2025 at the holiday apéro. Scientists are still debating what is exactly is going on with ocean currents.

 

PUTIN’S AFRICAN OUTREACH 

YOU’RE NOT WELCOME: Russia will not rejoin a U.N.-brokered pact designed to prevent famines across the developing world as a result of the Kremlin’s war in Ukraine, President Vladimir Putin said Thursday.

 

No means no: Speaking at the Russia-Africa Economic and Humanitarian Forum in St. Petersburg, Putin again said his government would “refuse to extend” the Black Sea grain deal, which has allowed 32.9 million tons of agricultural products to leave Ukraine’s blockaded ports and reach the global market, reports my colleague Gabriel Gavin.

 

Rough justice: Putin, who accused Western nations of receiving the bulk of the deliveries and refusing to lift sanctions on Russia, insisted Moscow would instead move toward “a more just system of resource distribution.”

 

Grains for all: “In the coming three or four months we would be ready to provide to Burkina Faso, Zimbabwe, Mali, Somalia, the Central African Republic and Eritrea up to 50,000 tons of grain each. We will ensure free shipping of these cargo,” Putin said.

 

Theft: Investigations have shown Russia has systematically stolen Ukrainian grain during its occupation of the south of the country and, following Moscow’s withdrawal from the deal, the country’s forces launched strikes against agricultural stores. Kyiv says as much as 60,000 tons of grain were destroyed.

 

BACK IN EUROPE: A question that’s popping up is whether Russia is beating the EU in its engagement with Africa.

 

Officially: The European External Action Service said that the choice to participate in the Russian-Africa summit “is a decision that belongs exclusively to the authorities of each African country and the EU fully respects the sovereign choices of its African partners.”

 

But privately: There was relief around Brussels that the turn-out for Putin’s summit was so low. “Even Russian media is highlighting that fewer leaders are attending this time around,” said one EU diplomat. “It shows that some African leaders are worried about the optics.”

 

Still in the game: A European Commission official also stressed that the EU “is the biggest trading, investment and security partner to Africa as well as its main donor. Facts and figures prove it, despite the massive ongoing disinformation campaigns.”

 

Just one example: A key deal secured with 79 African and Caribbean countries which has been held up since 2020 — initially by Hungary, then by Poland. The so-called post-Cotonou agreement was finally signed off on last week after internal horse-trading between EU ambassadors.

 

Global outreach: Post-Cotonou and the grain deal are “all part of this global outreach: How do we keep as many countries in the world on our side, or at least not on Russia’s side, when it comes to this war?” said a second EU diplomat, who like the first was granted anonymity to speak candidly.

 

Now read this: As the EU haggles over whether to extend import restrictions on Ukrainian agricultural products at the request of Poland, my colleagues Bartosz Brzeziński, Hanne Cokelaere and Camille Gijs examine how the bloc has no easy options left to help Ukraine shift its grain.

 

MEANWHILE, IN ST. PETERSBURG: Yevgeny Prigozhin, head of the Wagner mercenary army, was photographed on the sidelines of Putin’s summit just a month after his failed mutiny. In two pictures circulated on social media Thursday, Prigozhin is shown wearing casual jeans and a white shirt, smiling as he presses the flesh with visiting officials. Here’s the story.

 

TIMING IS EVERYTHING: Prigozhin claimed personal credit for the coup in Niger that took place on the eve of the summit, which threatens to destabilize one of the last Western allies in Africa’s Sahel region. Laura Kayali has more.

 

Borrell’s call: EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell tweeted that he spoke with Niger’s President Mohamed Bazoum, who has been held captive by soldiers since Wednesday. Borrell reiterated the EU’s call for Bazoum’s immediate release.

 

MORE ON RUSSIA’S WAR    

BRUSSELS TO HIT BELARUS WITH FRESH SANCTIONS: EU ambassadors have signed off on a raft of new measures targeting Belarus, Sarah Anne Aarup, Camille Gijs and Jacopo Barigazzi report.

 

Dual-use goods targeted: The sanctions are set to include export restrictions on dual-use goods like drones or computers that can be used on the battlefield against Ukraine, as well as aviation parts.

 

Individuals sanctioned: The latest package also includes new listings against 38 individuals and three entities, according to four EU diplomats who were granted anonymity so they could speak because they weren’t authorized to comment on the record.

 

Bigger picture: A larger discussion over the extent to which President Alexander Lukashenko’s Belarus should be sanctioned in comparison to Russia for its invasion of Ukraine has been ongoing for months.

 

Brace yourself … “After all the headaches for both Belarus and the Ukraine sanctions for the last rounds, I think there will be a moment to reflect on how to do these sanctions in order that … they don’t get ensnared in this horse trading and very bad looking politics before we start moving ahead with new ones,” a fifth EU diplomat said, who was also granted anonymity.

 

ON THE GROUND — COUNTEROFFENSIVE UPDATE: Ukrainian forces reportedly captured the strategic village of Staromaiorske in Ukraine’s Russian-occupied southeast, Reuters reports. “Our defenders are now continuing to clear the settlement,” Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar said, declaring Staromaiorske liberated.

 

US tanks: U.S. Abrams tanks are likely to arrive on the Ukrainian battlefield in September, according to six people familiar with the planning, my colleagues in the U.S. report. The plan is to send a handful of tanks to Germany in August, where they will undergo final refurbishments, before being shipped to Ukraine.

 

GERMAN ECONOMIC ANGST 

GERMAN ECONOMY MINISTER WARNS OF TOUGH YEARS AHEAD: With the International Monetary Fund warning that the German economy will shrink 0.3 percentage points this year, Economy Minister Robert Habeck warned voters to brace for five difficult years ahead as Berlin battles high energy prices and deindustrialization, my colleague Hans von der Burchard reports.

 

Don’t panic! Habeck stressed there was no need to succumb to angst — but then laid on another big helping of it by saying the economic downturn “will put a burden on people.”

 

Cash, please: In an interview with German broadcaster ARD on Wednesday, Habeck reiterated his call for new state subsidies to help companies deal with high energy prices. While his coalition partners have so far blocked the subsidies, the Green Party politician raised the stakes by saying Germany needed to decide between breaking its debt rules and abandoning its vaunted industrial base. “The question is: Do we borrow money or do we no longer have an industry?” Habeck said.

 

Weathering the storm: Habeck’s proposal is to put a cap on electricity prices for energy-intensive companies that compete in international markets. Subsidies would allow companies to “withstand the challenges of the transformation and have enough money to invest,” he said.

 

Why this matters for Europe: Because what happens in Germany will set the tone for Brussels in coming years. The EU has opened the floodgates for state aid amid the war in Ukraine, COVID and the green transition, allowing billions of euros in subsidies to flow under a repeatedly-extended “Transition Framework.” But there is brewing disagreement over how long such exemptions should last, and for what sectors.

 

Zoom in: Germany in particular has opposed a French push to allow subsidies for low-carbon nuclear plants as part of EU electricity market reforms. But if Berlin green-lights new energy subsidies at home, it may have a harder time in Brussels opposing subsidies for its neighbors’ power plants.

 

Now step back: The debate over state support for industry will be central to EU politics for years. Brussels wants to supercharge Europe’s green and tech sectors via subsidy schemes, but billions more euros will be needed if the EU wants to compete with the U.S. or China in what is already a global subsidy race. Whoever is the next president of the European Commission will have to decide how far the EU is ready to go to catch up — orthodoxy be damned.

 

MEDIA FREEDOM 

DAPHNE GALIZIA’S SON CRITICIZES ANTI-SLAPP DIRECTIVE: As the current mandate of the European Commission enters its final stretch, one file expected to get over the finish line is the Commission’s much-fêted anti-SLAPP directive, reports Suzanne Lynch.

 

What is it? The proposal, unveiled by the Commission in 2022, aims to clamp down on lawsuits taken by (usually wealthy and powerful) individuals to muzzle free speech and legitimate criticism, known as strategic lawsuits against public participation (SLAPPs) — a growing problem across the EU.

 

Daphne’s law: The proposal was a response in part to the assassination of Daphne Caruana Galizia, a Maltese investigative journalist who was killed by a car bomb in 2017. But in an interview with POLITICO’s EU Confidential podcast her son Andrew says the proposal falls short — and would not have helped his mother in most of the cases she faced, many of which had a cross-border element. (Caruana Galizia was facing multiple civil and criminal libel suits at the time of her death.)

 

Here’s looking at you, member states: Andrew welcomes the original proposal brought forward by the Commission. Instead his ire is aimed at member states (i.e. the Council) for trying to water-down the directive — specifically around the issues of cross-border cases and the early dismissal of cases.

 

Never-ending cases: “The aim of these lawsuits is to deprive the target of time and resources, and to deter others from taking up the same story,” said Andrew. “So for the claimant, the person who brings the legal case, a SLAPP is effective if it never ends. The most effective kind of vexatious and frivolous lawsuit is one that drags on forever and ever, and in my mother’s case until beyond her grave.”

 

Next steps: Trilogues — negotiations between the Commission, Council and Parliament — have already begun and are expected to conclude by the end of the year. But member states have already dug in, with many, including countries with strong protections for journalists, viewing the Commission’s proposal as overreach into member state competency.

 

Weekend listening: You can listen to Andrew’s full interview on this week’s EU Confidential podcast here. Also on this week’s episode, Suzanne dissects the results of last weekend’s Spanish election with POLITICO’s Aitor Hernández-Morales.

 

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