London Playbook: Walkout Wednesday — Protocol
progress — 1922 centenary dinner
BY ELENI
COUREA
FEBRUARY 1,
2023 8:00 AM CET
London
Playbook
By ELENI
COUREA
WHILE YOU
WERE SLEEPING: Boris Johnson popped up on Fox News and criticized Rishi Sunak’s
decision not to send fighter jets to Ukraine. He told Bret Baier: “Every time
we’ve said it would be a mistake to give such and such an item of weaponry, we
end up doing it and it ends up being the right thing for Ukraine.” Hours
earlier Downing Street followed Joe Biden’s administration in ruling out
sending fighter jets.
Memo to
Beijing: Johnson — who is in Washington D.C. meeting Republican politicians
including Newt Gingrich, Mitch McConnell and Kevin McCarthy — said the West
should not fear Vladimir Putin’s threats of reprisals and that the faster
Russia is forced out of Ukraine “the more powerful the message we send to
people like China that the West … will not tolerate aggressive attempts to
change borders” — a reference to Taiwan.
Tune in for
more: Johnson is speaking to the Atlantic Council at 4.30 p.m. London time
(conveniently timed for the U.K. news cycle). Register to watch that here.
Good
Wednesday morning. This is Eleni Courea.
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from Sainsbury’s: To support customers, colleagues and communities, we’re
investing £550 million by March 2023 to keep prices low. We’re also investing
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DRIVING THE
DAY
STRIKING
OUT: Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer are limbering up for their regular sparring
routine at noon today while the rest of the country grinds to a standstill.
National
day of (in)action: Teachers, university lecturers, train drivers, rail workers,
border officials and civil servants — up to half a million workers in total —
are walking out as part of a TUC-coordinated strike against the minimum
services bill.
What’s most
worrying ministers … is the first set of teachers’ strikes in England and
Wales, which the NEU estimates could disrupt classes in 85 percent of state
schools (we won’t know until this morning). One Tory MP told Playbook: “The
strikes haven’t dealt that much political damage to the government so far. But
schools shutting will be the first time a lot of people feel their impact.”
Air wars:
Education Secretary Gillian Keegan is about to start touring the studios and
will be on the Today program at 8.10 a.m. NEU General Secretary Mary Bousted is
also on the airwaves and is speaking to Today at 7.10 a.m.
Briefing …
A union official told Playbook last night: “There is unprecedented anger
amongst teachers and engagement in union activity the likes of which we’ve
never seen before. There hasn’t been a strike on this scale in a long time.
Today’s Mumsnet survey shows parents support our core argument that education
is in crisis and support us by 62 percent trying to change it. Something must
change.” The NEU has this full-page advert in more than 20 national and
regional papers.
… and
counter-briefing: A government insider told Playbook: “The stakes have never
been higher for children’s education. They’ve gone through several years of
massive disruption and we know the impact that’s had on outcomes among many
other things. Parents, teachers and government have all been pulling in the
same direction to help children catch up and strike action is hugely damaging
to these efforts.” On Tuesday, Keegan accused the NEU of not using strikes as a
last resort.
Protest
position: TUC gen sec Paul Nowak is heading to Storey’s Gate for a photo op and
to take questions from reporters alongside key workers at 9.15 a.m., before
joining a march at 11 a.m. and rally of education workers at 1 p.m. He will
hand a petition against the strikes bill to Downing Street at around 2.15 p.m.
Numbers
galore: The Fairness Foundation has a report out this morning with extensive
new Opinium polling on support for striking workers in different sectors and
among groups of voters. Unsurprisingly, it suggests there’s a real split
between Tory and Labour supporters — but it finds that an overwhelming majority
of Tory voters agree with “fairness” arguments such as that pay gaps are too
large.
HOLD,
SLEAZE
OVER TO
YOU, PM: Here’s a gift to Keir Starmer a few hours before PMQs: The Times’
Chris Smyth and Oli Wright report No. 10 was told of concerns about Dominic Raab’s
behavior before Rishi Sunak made him deputy prime minister in October. Two
sources tell the paper that the Cabinet Office propriety and ethics team
alerted Downing Street to concerns about Raab that had not reached the level of
formal complaints. No. 10 sources insisted that Sunak was not directly told
about this, and that officials never advised against appointing Raab.
On top of
that: A minister who worked alongside Raab tells the Times they witnessed his
“bullying and intimidation” of officials and that “it was more than being a
robust minister.” The paper says Adam Tolley’s probe is expected to take
several more weeks.
More
claims: Staff who worked with Raab tell the Mirror’s John Stevens that it was
like “a controlling and abusive relationship” and that he would moderate his
behavior when ministers were in the room. The story splashes the paper. Raab
declined to comment to the Mirror, but has previously vowed to “thoroughly
rebut and refute” the allegations against him.
Triple
trouble: All three permanent secretaries who worked with Raab during his time
in Cabinet have now given evidence to Tolley’s inquiry, the Guardian’s Pippa
Crerar reports. As well as Simon McDonald (ex FCO), Antonia Romeo (MoJ) and
Philip Rycroft (ex DExEU) have both been interviewed, with questions said to
have focused on what they told Raab about his alleged behavior.
100 YEARS,
100 DAYS
NO PARTY
LIKE A TORY PARTY: Conservative MPs will flock to the centenary dinner of the
1922 committee of backbench Tory MPs in central London tonight, where Rishi
Sunak will be the star speaker. It happens to be the eve of his 100th day in
office.
Note to
newsdesks: The centenary is this year because the 1922 committee was founded in
1923 (a mistake Playbook has certainly made in the past). Here’s a potted
history.
Wednesday
night fun: It’s not just the Tories dressing up tonight: Keir Starmer is
hosting a fundraising gala celebrating the South Asian community in Britain,
with over 300 business leaders and party supporters expected to attend.
Comedian and broadcaster Shazia Mirza will be the MC. Playbook is told this is
the first of a series of such gala dinners Labour is hosting in the run-up to
the election.
A MATTER OF
PROTOCOL
REASONS TO
BE POSITIVE: Temperatures in SW1 are about 10 degrees warmer and days are
nearly 25 minutes longer than they were a fortnight ago. Plus if you work in
No. 10, it looks very much like you’re within touching distance of a deal on
the Northern Ireland protocol.
Softly,
softly: One Whitehall official tells Playbook that a draft agreement believed
to meet the DUP’s seven tests has been struck and handed to the PM for consideration
this week. (Downing Street still insists talks are in the scoping phase.) The
Times splashes on the shape of the proposed detail, reporting that while the
customs element has been finalized, the exact role of the Court of Justice of
the EU still needs to be decided — but that Brussels has made a key concession
on that point.
Kudos to:
Bloomberg’s Ellen Milligan and co., who reported negotiators were close to a
deal on most issues including customs, state aid and sanitary checks (but not
governance) on Friday.
Reading
through the lines: What strikes Playbook above all is the degree of government
anxiety seeping through the Times story. “Both sides are anxious about the
political handling of any announcement amid fears that it could ‘unravel,’” Oli
Wright and Patrick Maguire write. “There are concerns in London that if
Brussels emphasises any continuing role for the European court then this could
lead the DUP to reject it. Sunak is also nervous about reaction to the
compromise among Brexit-supporting MPs and in particular any intervention by
Boris Johnson, who agreed to the original protocol with the EU.”
Which
partly explains … why No. 10 has been so keen to play down news of progress in
the talks and tread extremely carefully when it comes to this issue (after all,
the ERG has some experience bringing down prime ministers). The result,
however, is confused messaging, with one source telling the Times the deal
meets the DUP’s seven tests and others telling the paper that there’s nothing
the DUP will sign up to.
More
broadly: It feels like Sunak has been walking on eggshells since he became PM,
with his safety-first reshuffle and three climbdowns in the face of Tory
rebellions over housebuilding, onshore wind and social media regulations. MPs
are arguing that, at some point, he will have to show some steel. “If handled
properly, this could be a win that puts No. 10 back on track with party
management and delivering on priorities,” a government official told Playbook.
Frosty
reception: Policy Exchange publishes a nicely timed report on the NIP today
with a foreword from Johnson’s Brexit negotiator David Frost. The report argues
that the NIP has failed to protect the Good Friday Agreement based on the EU’s
own measures.
He’s
running: Frost told the News Agents’ Emily Maitlis on Tuesday that giving up
his peerage to stand as an MP — and potentially for the Tory leadership — is
something he “could imagine” doing.
**EU
commissioners Paolo Gentiloni and Mairead McGuinness are returning to POLITICO
Live’s Finance Summit, taking place in Paris and online on March 23. Discover
the program and line-up of speakers covering everything from inflation and
green finance to crypto. Find out more.**
TODAY IN
WESTMINSTER
AUSSIE
AGENDA: James Cleverly is meeting Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong (who
has said the U.K. needs to face up to its colonial past) at Carlton Gardens for
a breakfast bilat. Rishi Sunak is planning to drop in to meet Wong today.
EMPTY
CHAIR: Another day without a replacement for Nadhim Zahawi as Tory chair amid
reports by the Telegraph’s Chris Hope and Guardian’s Jess Elgot that none of
the favorites really want the job. The Telegraph reports on a push for Tory
members to be given the power to elect their chair (presumably with candidates’
consent), while on the Express website David Maddox reports on calls to appoint
Priti Patel.
On the
attack: Nonetheless it’s business as usual at CCHQ. The Tories have an attack
story in the Mail pointing out that unions are well-represented on Labour’s
ruling body the NEC.
CRIMINAL
STATS: Labour’s researchers have been busy too digging up some really horrific
crime figures. Offenders on probation have carried out three murders or sex
attacks a week in England and Wales since 2010, Channel 4 and the Mail reported
last night (the story takes out page 4 of the paper). Shadow justice sec Steve
Reed said the Tories had left “our probation services in chaos.” The story also
makes the Times, among others.
NO RABBIT IN
SIGHT: Last night’s 1922 committee meeting with guest speaker Jeremy Hunt was
pretty downbeat by all accounts. As expected, the chancellor came under
pressure from Tory MPs who argue he should cut taxes sooner rather than later,
with Playbook hearing that Bill Wiggin and Edward Leigh were among those making
that point. The Guardian has a write-up from the meeting, reporting that Hunt
warned there would be no “rabbit out of the hat” in his budget.
Worth
reading: The latest thread by More in Common’s Luke Tryl reporting from a focus
group of 2019 Tory voters in Blyth. “I switched to Aldi, batch cook, got an
electric blanket and only do free things for the kids but even that’s not
enough now,” one participant said.
Trussland:
The Guardian’s Bree Allegretti has taken a look at what the Conservative Growth
Group is getting up to. He reports that Truss was considering writing an
“inquest piece” for one of the newspapers that reflects on her downfall but
argues for her emphasis on growth to remain.
TRANSPARENCY
TROVE: Three Russian oligarchs under sanctions own U.K. property via overseas
entities in Cyprus, the British Virgin Islands and Russia, the Guardian’s
Rowena Mason reports after digging through the register of overseas entities.
RACE ROW
DAY 2: Tory peer Rami Ranger has withdrawn comments criticized for being
“racially charged” after a second referral was made about him to the Lords
standards watchdog, the Guardian’s Bree Allegretti and Kiran Stacey report.
Ranger tells the paper his comments were “an over-reaction made in the heat of
the moment.”
ID, PLEASE:
Only around 10,000 people have applied for new government-issued voter IDs, the
Guardian’s Peter Walker reports. According to the government’s own research,
close to 2 million potential voters do not possess adequate photo ID and would
need to either apply for government-issued voter ID or for a new form of photo
ID — which is unlikely to be a quick process in backlog Britain.
HOUSE OF
COMMONS: Sits from 11.30 a.m. with attorney general questions, followed by PMQs
at noon … Alba MP Neale Hanvey will put forward a ten-minute rule bill which
would transfer the powers to hold Indyref2 to Holyrood. Best of luck with that
… Any UQs or statements will follow … and then the two main bits of business
will be the remaining stages of the U.K. Infrastructure Bank and a
backbench-led debate on the state pension age. Tory MP Holly Mumby-Croft will
lead an adjournment debate on sudden cardiac death in young people.
What the
Lib Dems want to talk about: The party is pushing for a vote on the U.K.
Infrastructure Bank Bill, having put forward an amendment to block water
companies from getting taxpayers’ money unless they stop sewage leaks.
COMMITTEE
CORRIDOR: The NI affairs committee will hear from Troubles victims’ and
survivors’ representatives on the impact of continued paramilitary activity
(9.30 a.m.) … Welsh Economy Minister Vaughan Gething and U.K. Tourism Minister
Stuart Andrew appear over two Welsh affairs committee panels on making Wales a
global tourist decision (10 a.m.) … Trade experts will discuss trade war at the
DIT committee (10 a.m.) … The home affairs committee will look at how the
justice committee serves victims and survivors with Criminal Bar Association
Chair Kirsty Brimelow (10.15 a.m.) … The European scrutiny committee will look
at the impact government proposals to amend the NI protocol will have on
business (2.30 p.m.) … and RAF chief Mike Wigston gets a grilling at the
defense committee (2.30 p.m.). Full list here.
LORDS: Sits
from 3 p.m. with questions on new criminal sanctions for people who gain
illegal entry to football matches, the Afghan Citizens Resettlement Scheme and
on criminality within the Metropolitan Police … Watch out for the second
reading of the Online Safety Bill, which will likely signal the level of
opposition to the bill in the second chamber.
BARNIER’S
BACK: U.K. in a Changing Europe is hosting Michel Barnier (who’s doing a bit of
a U.K. media tour at the moment) for a conversation with Anand Menon reflecting
on his time as the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator. Sign up to watch here.
NOT MAD
VLAD: Vladimir Putin isn’t mad and is instead “radically rational” — whatever
that means — according to former French President Francois Hollande. Nick
Vinocur interviewed Hollande for POLITICO here.
CHIP FIGHT:
As nations around the world scramble to secure crucial semiconductor supply
chains over fears about relations with China, the U.K. is falling behind, top
colleagues Graham Lanktree and Annabelle Dickson report.
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from Sainsbury’s: With over 1,500 stores nationwide and 171,000 colleagues, we
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