London Playbook: Resignation watch — Forbes implodes — Chopper’s off

 

London Playbook: Resignation watch — Forbes implodes — Chopper’s off

BY ROSA PRINCE

FEBRUARY 21, 2023 8:03 AM CET

https://www.politico.eu/newsletter/london-playbook/resignation-watch-forbes-implodes-choppers-off/

 

London Playbook

By ROSA PRINCE

 

Big lobby news: Christopher “Chopper” Hope is departing The Telegraph after two decades to join GB News as head of politics and political editor.

 

DRIVING THE DAY

NO DEAL YET: It was supposed to be the day Rishi Sunak briefed his Cabinet on his successful Northern Ireland protocol deal before announcing the plan in triumph to the rest of the world. Instead, his top team gathers today in a rather unsettled mood, with negotiations in a holding pattern since the weekend and the timetable for resolving the remaining issues at risk of slipping into next week.

 

Resignation watch: The POLITICO team looks this morning at how it’s all gone a bit 2019 in the last 72 hours, with Tory MPs on tenterhooks waiting for a deal, and Westminster on resignation watch. Tory veterans of brutal Brexit battles of recent years fear serious trouble could lie ahead if Sunak tries to bounce colleagues into a deal that won’t wash with the Democratic Unionist Party.

 

Steven Swinford and colleagues in The Times and Newsnight’s Nick Watt also hear that one or more Cabinet minister is prepared to walk. Home Secretary Suella Braverman’s call for Sunak to rethink his inclination to scrap Boris Johnson’s Northern Ireland Protocol Bill, currently stalled in the Lords, has flushed out the real prospect of a Cabinet split.

 

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Sound familiar? The PM held meetings throughout the day with MPs, including, Playbook’s Eleni Courea hears, Jacob Rees-Mogg and other members of the European Research Group (ERG). One former government adviser closely involved in previous Brexit negotiations tells Annabelle Dickson: “He’s repeating the tactics that were used by [David] Cameron in negotiating the package prior to the referendum, and by Theresa May, and there is risk in that.”

 

Line by line: Inside The Times, another very detailed story by the team of Swinford, Oliver Wright and Henry Zeffman suggests attempts by officials who have flown into Belfast to win over the DUP by going through the deal line by line are so far not bearing fruit, with concern remaining over the application of EU regulations in Northern Ireland without oversight from local politicians and the role of the EU’s court system. With the ERG watching the DUP closely, a government source tells The Times: “We don’t need them to say yes, we just need them not to say no.”

 

If not now, when? The Sun suggests hopes are fading that a deal can be achieved, while, in contrast, PolHome’s Adam Payne reckons all will be done and dusted by Thursday. A senior Tory MP tells him No. 10 mishandled the DUP by failing to properly engage, saying: “There’s rolling the pitch and then there’s bouncing someone into something.” Meanwhile, Sky’s Beth Rigby hears that if there’s no deal by tomorrow, the EU side will want to push the negotiations into next week, to allow space for the one-year anniversary of the Ukraine conflict and a U.N. minister meet-up, both on Friday.

 

Always a Boris angle: After Johnson was slapped down by George Osborne over his not-so-helpful intervention at the weekend in defense of the Northern Ireland Bill, his former director of comms Guto Harri told The News Agents podcast that Osborne “loathes” Johnson.

 

Now read this: A thoughtful piece from former NI Sec Brandon Lewis in The Telegraph, calling for an overhaul of the Good Friday Agreement. He argues that having served its purpose in ensuring peace for nearly 25 years, the accord is now failing to keep up with the realities on the ground. He underlines the point that under current rules, the non-sectarian Alliance Party, despite growing in support, can never take on a leadership role in the Assembly.

 

FEELING THE LOVE: Talk of fresh Cabinet splits over the Tories’ old fault line of Europe doesn’t seem to have dampened Michael Gove’s spirits; The Sun has a video of his latest epic 2 a.m. dancefloor boogie.

 

JOINED-UP GOVERNMENT: Political journalists were yesterday loving the new Five Priorities banner, which appears to have popped up at the top of all government press releases.

 

SNP LAND

CRASH AND BURN: SNP MPs, activists, Scottish journalists, political opponents and, well, the world, really, took to social media last night to declare Kate Forbes’ candidacy in the Scots Nat leadership race dead in the water. Her (politically at least) ill-judged assertion that she would have opposed gay marriage had she been in the Scottish parliament when the law was passed seems to have gone down like a lead balloon north of the border.

 

TikTok: Playbook makes it exactly seven hours, 24 minutes from Forbes launching her slick campaign video to publication of her surely fatal interview with the Scotsman in which she declared her position “as a matter of conscience.”

 

Ouch: The response was swift — and brutal. The Scotsman’s Alexander Brown heard from a member of Forbes’ own team that she had, how shall we put this, messed up her campaign. Hannah Bardell wasn’t impressed either. Nor was Pete Wishart, who seemed to have been considering voting for Forbes before her disastrous media round. Stewart McDonald, Richard Lochhead, Paul O’Kane, and Tory peer Ruth Davidson all took to Twitter overnight to sound the death knell for her candidacy. Carol Monaghan was one of the few to defend Forbes.

 

Headscratcher: It does beg the question of why the SNP finance minister hadn’t prepared something defter in response to questions on such issues as LGBTQ rights which, given her much-discussed upbringing in the ultra-socially conservative “wee frees” church, she must have known were coming.

 

All hail King Humza: Rival Humza Yousaf couldn’t believe his luck when Forbes’ controversial comments began to circulate — and must have considered the response karma, after his own campaign launch earlier in the day was torpedoed by Forbes’ entry into the race. Speaking on LBC’s Tonight with Andrew Marr, he made clear his own stance on the matter: “I’m a supporter of equal marriage … I’m a Muslim. I’m somebody who’s proud of my faith … But what I don’t do is, I don’t use my faith as a basis of legislation.”

 

A funny old game: Yousaf must now be considered a hot favorite to beat the other declared candidate, outsider Ash Regan, and succeed Nicola Sturgeon, despite having been written off at the start of the race, checks notes, five days ago, as widely considered to have made a poor fist of his handling of COVID and the health brief.

 

Set your alarm: Forbes is due to appear on Good Morning Scotland at 8.05 a.m. and Times Radio at 8.15 a.m. this morning.

 

DOWN ON THE FARM

NFU CONFERENCE AGENDA: Sunak opens the National Farmers’ Union conference today with a five-minute video address at 10.40 a.m. before Environment Minister Mark Spencer gives the keynote speech followed by a Q&A. Keir Starmer delivers a second keynote speech at 2 p.m. and will also be taking questions. The whole thing is chaired by NFU President Minette Batters, and Confederation of British Industry chief Tony Danker is putting in an appearance too.

 

Help for farmers: In his speech, Spencer is set to announce more than £160 million in grants for farmers this year to support food production and protect the environment.

 

Labour’s take: Starmer will make an audacious bid to steal the farming vote by seeking to capitalize on the NFU’s concerns about post-Brexit trade deals potentially undercutting British suppliers. He will promise to forge a new trading relationship with “our friends” in the EU, adding: “We want to remove barriers to exporters, not put them up. We want to protect high British standards, not water them down.”

 

Ee ba gum: If the mission is to reach out to rural communities, then the party will be thrilled to see Starmer’s words splash the Tory-inclined Yorkshire Post. Acknowledging that Labour hasn’t traditionally been the natural home for the farming vote, he’ll tell the convention: “We’re a changed party — from top to bottom. A party that is fit to serve, that is compassionate and competent, that aspires to govern for every corner of our country. And that seeks a new relationship with the countryside and farming communities on this basis.”

 

LABOUR LAND

DOES THE GUY NEVER SLEEP? It was a Lou Reed-esque Perfect Day (minus the heroin) yesterday for Starmer, who began his Monday with a four-hour away day on an upper floor of the Canary Wharf Tower with “terrific views,” before hosting the Ukrainian ambo at the PLP — more on that later — and rounding off the night recording Matt Forde’s podcast. How can the NFU conference beat all that?

 

Shad Cab: Eleni hears staffers were strategically positioned outside Canary Wharf tube to ensure shadow ministers didn’t get lost on the way to the tower. The shad cab met for around four hours with presentations from Starmer as well as Rachel Reeves, Wes Streeting, Ed Miliband, Yvette Cooper and Bridget Phillipson (whose portfolios cover the five “national missions” that Starmer is planning to unveil on Thursday, per last weekend’s Sunday Times).

 

Talking of Rach: Reeves is giving a speech today at the Association of British Insurers’ annual conference, where she will discuss how her own experience working in the financial services sector has given her an appreciation for our economic institutions, as well as the importance and value of fiscal responsibility. A spokesperson said she’ll be “pressing home Labour’s ambition to make Britain the post-Brexit, homegrown start-up hub of the world.”

 

POLITICAL THEATER: Our own Dan Bloom was in the audience for Starmer’s cozy 80-minute chat with Blairite comedian and “Political Party” podcast host Matt Forde, and reports the following: The Labour leader discussed his “loathing” for Johnson, revealed he had swapped numbers with Sunak and described lurking in a focus group about himself. He also confirmed reports he drew up plans last autumn to have an emergency manifesto ready within a fortnight.

 

On secretly watching a Zoom focus group: “I had to pour a large glass of white wine when they started ‘what did you think of Keir Starmer’ … There was this moment where one woman said ‘well, he’s a bit like David Beckham.’”

 

On Johnson’s personal life: “I really couldn’t give a toss” about being called Crasheroonie Snoozefest, he said. To audience sniggers, he added: “Is there anybody who’s had any relationship with Johnson — you know, in any sense of the word — who hasn’t ended up in the gutter?”

 

On his textual relationship with Sunak: “He phoned me the day he became prime minister, gave me his personal number, and we said we would work together on things like Ukraine and if there was a terrorist incident” — but “we’re not texting about the Southampton/Arsenal scores.”

 

On Angela Rayner: “I’m not pretending we agree on everything, but whenever my back’s against the wall, Angela will get in touch, she’ll be there, absolutely supporting.”

 

On his daughter: “She said to me, ‘if you win the election, would you move into Downing Street? … Just to let you know, I’m not coming.’”

 

BROKEN BRITAIN

STRIKES LATEST: Junior doctors have voted to strike for 72 hours next month, a move Health and Social Care Secretary Steve Barclay described as “deeply disappointing.”

 

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TODAY IN WESTMINSTER

HRT: Hundreds of thousands of women will be able to access cheaper Hormone Replacement Therapy through a new prescription pre-payment certificate from April 1, reducing the cost to £18.70 a year, a saving of more than £200. The move is a boon to campaigners including Labour’s Carolyn Harris. Minister Maria Caulfield will be out on the morning broadcast round — in words briefed overnight, she said: “Reducing the cost of HRT is a huge moment for improving women’s health in this country, and I am proud to be announcing this momentous step forward.”

 

ATOMIC BOWIE: Congrats to Andrew Bowie, who, Playbook can exclusively reveal, is set to be the country’s first-ever nuclear minister in the new Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (DesNez?). A spokesperson for SoS Grant Shapps said: “Grant is the first secretary of state to put money into nuclear since 1986. Not only would it massively boost our own energy security and help reach net-zero targets, but there are massive export opportunities too.”

 

EFFICIENCY: Alison Rose, the CEO of NatWest, has been named co-chair of the government’s Energy Efficiency Taskforce, which aims to help reduce national energy consumption by 15 percent over the next seven years. Chancellor Jeremy Hunt will confirm the appointment at a meeting with nearly 100 representatives from the U.K.’s top green firms in east London. There will be a media huddle afterward.

 

More from Grant: Shapps is also attending the conference in east London, where he will set out his ambition for the U.K. to have the cheapest wholesale electricity prices in Europe by the middle of the next decade.

 

FOUR DAYS FOREVER: Almost every company that took part in the four-day working week pilot decided to continue with it, according to a report by the think tank Autonomy and leading academics. The data showed 92 percent of companies that took part are continuing, with the vast majority of satisfied business performance and productivity were maintained. The full results will be presented to MPs at an event in the parliament hosted by Labour’s Peter Dowd.

 

HEART OVER HEAD: The government has backed recommendations to improve the organ transplant process, which aim to better match donated organs with recipients, increase the number of transplants and improve patient experience. A report by the Organ Utilisation Group recommended developing better systems so more organs are used and sharing best practices to raise standards.

 

IDENTITY PARADE: Large numbers of older voters could be prevented from voting at this year’s local elections after official data showed only 505 people aged 75 or over had applied for free voter identification documents since the scheme launched last month. The Guardian’s Peter Walker writes that fewer than 6 percent of those seeking the document were under 25. A government website showing the running total found just under 21,000 applications had been submitted, 1 percent of the estimated 2 million who do not possess ID.

 

TO THE BARRICADES: An NHS “volunteer army” could help ease pressures on social care services, Civil Service World reports. The magazine suggests DHSC is considering deploying volunteers into adult social-care settings through the NHS volunteer responder program set up during the pandemic, next year.

 

ANY OTHER BUSINESS: Gove publishes the Nationally Significant Infrastructure Projects Reform Action Plan to help speed up the delivery of major infrastructure projects while protecting the environment; DWP announces the Household Support Fund allocations for councils in England – worth £842 million — from April 2023 to March 2024. The Household Support Fund is distributed by councils in England and supports vulnerable households to meet daily needs such as food, clothing and utility costs.

 

HOUSE OF COMMONS: Sits from 11.30 a.m. with justice questions … the SNP’s Amy Callaghan has a 10-minute rule bill on removing VAT from sunblock products. The main business will see the second reading of the Social Security (Additional Payments) Bill, which authorizes payments from the 2023-24 financial year to help with the increased cost of living. Tory MP Ben Bradley has the adjournment debate on reopening school sports facilities.

 

WESTMINSTER HALL: Debates from 9.30 a.m. on subjects including freeport proposals for Wales (led by Tory MP Virginia Crosbie) … affordability and availability of childcare (headed by Labour’s Ruth Cadbury) … and steroid, image and performance-enhancing drug use (managed by the Tories’ Luke Evans).

 

On committee corridor: The three main civil service unions will be questioned by the Public Administration and Constitutional Affairs Committee about planning for the future of the government’s estates (10 a.m.) … the education committee will hear from childcare providers on the sector’s workforce challenges (10 a.m.) … Business Minister Kevin Hollinrake will be scrutinized by the Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy Committee about post-pandemic economic growth (11.15 a.m.) … Chief Medical Officer for England Chris Whitty is among those questioned by the Health and Social Care Committee about preventing ill health (11.15 a.m.) … and Victoria Prentis appears before a select committee for the first time since being appointed attorney general in October 2022, where she will be questioned, alongside Solicitor General Michael Tomlinson, by the justice committee about their work (3 p.m.).

 

HOUSE OF LORDS: Sits from 2.30 p.m. with oral questions on decriminalizing, soliciting and brothel-keeping laws, reviewing existing defenses for individuals whose offenses are because of domestic abuse and the impact of government policies on people with disabilities … and then the main business will be the third reading of the Public Order Bill and the second reading of the Strikes (Minimum Service Levels) Bill.

 

UKRAINE LATEST

AT THE PLP: Fresh from his trip to Kyiv last week, Starmer introduced Ukrainian ambo Vadym Prystaiko to his MPs. “It was my honor last week to represent our party on a visit to Kyiv,” he said. “I took with me a simple message from every one of us, to every person there. That Labour’s commitment to Ukraine’s freedom, her liberty and her victory is unshakable.” Prystaiko spoke of the need for justice in the form of compensation from and prosecutions of members of the Russian state all the way up to Vladimir Putin.

 

ICYMI: Liz Truss made her debut speech from the backbenches in the Ukraine debate yesterday evening. Selecting a perch beside ally Simon Clark and just in front of her immediate predecessor Johnson, Truss said the West “should have done more” to thwart Putin before the invasion, adding: “We were complacent about freedom and democracy after the Cold War. We were told it was the end of history and that freedom and democracy were guaranteed.” Truss and Johnson both called for Sunak to send fighter jets to Ukraine — their words splash the Telegraph. Noah Keate was watching for POLITICO.

 

BRAVE BIDEN: Photos from Joe Biden’s surprise visit to Ukraine are on a number of the front pages today. The Economist has an interesting piece on the background to his visit, and as the first anniversary of the start of the war approaches, POLITICO asks if Western sanctions against Russia have achieved anything, and we also bring you a fascinating analysis of how Putin is selling his war against “the West.”

 

BRITS HEART UKRAINE: The British people remain deeply invested in the war in Ukraine and are positive about the U.K.’s contribution, according to survey research carried out by Policy Exchange’s Sophia Gaston and Opinium. The poll found 36 percent were keen to see Russia pushed entirely out of Ukraine’s borders; 71 percent thought the U.K. had responded well to the invasion. Asked to identify the No. 1 reason why the U.K. government was investing significant resources into defending Ukraine, Brits were most likely to believe (23 percent) the government was sending a message to Russia that undermining another country’s sovereign territory was not acceptable.

 

THE HOME FRONT: The knock-on effect of the energy crisis stemming from the Ukraine conflict has cost each adult in the U.K. a cool thousand pounds, according to the nonprofit Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit. Alex Lawson in the Guardian has the exclusive.

 

BEYOND THE M25

FRESH EARTHQUAKES: Turkey has suffered two more earthquakes only a fortnight after the quakes that killed more than 40,000 people along with another 6,000 in neighboring Syria. A 6.4 magnitude and 5.8 magnitude quake hit the southern province of Hatay, killing at least three people and wounding 213. A large government hospital in the city of İskenderun in the north of Hatay was evacuating patients. The Guardian’s Ruth Michaelson has the story.

 

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