Job Growth Is a Boost for Biden as He Bets on a Lasting Turnaround

 

Job Growth Is a Boost for Biden as He Bets on a Lasting Turnaround

 

President Biden has for months pointed to solid hiring trends as evidence that his agenda has rebuilt the economy after the pandemic shutdowns.

 

Zolan Kanno-Youngs Michael D. Shear

By Zolan Kanno-Youngs and Michael D. Shear

Feb. 3, 2023

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/03/business/economy/jobs-report-january-biden.html

 

PHILADELPHIA — President Biden on Friday seized on what he called “strikingly good news” about the economy, hailing the addition of a half-million jobs and capping a week of presidential swagger about the direction of the country.

 

Just days before he delivers his second assessment of the State of the Union in an address before Congress next week, Mr. Biden has all but dropped the “I feel your pain” message he frequently delivered last year as inflation soared.

 

Instead, Mr. Biden traveled around the country this week, pointing to the real-world impact of legislation he championed to spend billions of dollars on the nation’s crumbling infrastructure and unabashedly taking credit for what he is betting will be a lasting turnaround as the Covid-19 pandemic wanes.

 

In Philadelphia, Mr. Biden boasted about the new bridges that will be built and rusty lead pipes that will be replaced because of his efforts. And he praised the country’s businesses for creating 12 million jobs since he took office.

 

“There’s now 12 million more Americans who can look at their kid and say: ‘It’s going to be OK,’” he told a group of workers at a water treatment plant. “And what it’s done mostly is to provide dignity for those families.”

 

But looking on the bright side has its risks, especially since the red-hot job growth in January has the potential to trigger more aggressive interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve as it tries to keep a lid on high inflation. Prices have still risen at a rate of 6.5 percent, down from last year but well above the average for the last several decades.

 

And economic uncertainty is far from gone as Republicans threaten not to raise the debt limit later this year, a move that economists say would shatter global financial confidence and plunge the nation into recession.

 

Previous presidents who have been too rosy about the economy have been punished by voters who see them as out-of-touch with their real-life issues. President George Bush lost his re-election bid in 1992 after seeming to dismiss the impact of an inflation-driven recession on middle-class workers.

 

“This is the hardest thing to do in politics,” said James Carville, the Democratic strategist who helped Bill Clinton defeat Mr. Bush that year. “In a recovery, when can you say there’s a recovery and things are good? When people don’t think it’s good and you say it’s good, they get angry with you.”

 

That same dynamic hurt Mr. Clinton politically in 1994, Mr. Carville recalled.

 

“Although the economy was doing better, if we said it, the blowback was: ‘The guy is out of touch,’” he said. “That’s the most difficult and vexing problem that any incumbent has.”

 

The White House has also been anxious over a worker shortage as Mr. Biden focuses on the implementation of his infrastructure, economic and climate legislation this year to galvanize voters. The labor market has remained tight; data released this week showed that the number of posted jobs per available unemployed worker rose again in December.

 

But Mr. Biden and his team appear to have decided that it is not a time to hold back.

 

The United States added 517,000 jobs in January alone, the Labor Department said on Friday, and the unemployment rate fell to 3.4 percent, the lowest rate of joblessness since before the first moon landing in the summer of 1969.

 

The 12 million jobs added since Mr. Biden took office amount to “the strongest two years of job growth in history — by a long shot,” Mr. Biden crowed in remarks at the White House, adding that the new jobs report proves that a “chorus of critics” were just plain wrong about his approach to the economy.

 

Those critics often note that the dramatic job growth during Mr. Biden’s term is the result of needed rebuilding after the loss of about 10 million jobs in the country because of pandemic-related shutdowns.

 

Just moments after Friday’s jobs report came out, members of Mr. Biden’s team took to social media. Shalanda Young, the president’s budget director, noted the unemployment rate, saying “@POTUS’s economic plan is delivering.” Ian Sams, the spokesman for the White House Counsel’s Office, criticized Republicans for “political stunt” investigations.

 

“House Rs could instead join @POTUS to focus on issues affecting people’s lives like jobs & work together on this historic progress,” he wrote alongside a chart showing the decline in the unemployment rate since Mr. Biden took office.

 

The president and his team are unlikely to get that kind of cooperation from his adversaries, especially after an announcement on his likely re-election bid, a move expected in the coming weeks or months.

 

Despite his administration’s accomplishments, Mr. Biden remains in a politically perilous situation with voters after two years in office. A recent public opinion survey by NBC News indicated that a plurality of voters do not think he is “honest and trustworthy,” has the “ability to handle a crisis,” is “competent and effective,” or is “uniting the country.”

 

In the survey, 54 percent said Mr. Biden does not have the “necessary mental and physical health to be president.” Only 28 percent said he does.

 

Still, the president’s aides are betting that voters will be more focused on how they experience the economy: Do they have jobs? Can they afford to buy groceries and gas? Do they have the resources to take a vacation or buy a car?

 

A year ago, with gas prices soaring, Mr. Biden went out of his way to make sure Americans knew he felt their financial frustration with the situation, saying “I get it,” and adding: “I know how much it hurts.”

 

On Friday, that sentiment was largely replaced by an unrestrained enthusiasm in the wake of one of the biggest employment increases in months.

 

Mr. Biden has for months pointed to job growth as evidence that his agenda has rebuilt the economy after the coronavirus pandemic shuttered much of the United States. On Friday, he amplified that narrative to draw a contrast between what he says are policies that produced steady growth and the tax and spending plans of some House Republicans.

 

Throughout his time in office, rising consumer prices have been one of the more glaring political vulnerabilities for Mr. Biden. The Fed on Wednesday raised interest rates for an eighth consecutive time in a year in an effort to cool rapid inflation.

 

Republicans have accused the White House of worsening inflation by injecting too much money into the economy and have called for major spending cuts.

 

Asked after his remarks whether he takes responsibility for inflation that remains high, Mr. Biden said he does not.

 

“Because it was already there,” he said. “When I got here, man. Remember what the economy was like? Jobs were hemorrhaging. Inflation was rising? We weren’t manufacturing a damn thing here. We were in real economic difficulty.”

 

“That’s why I don’t,” he said.

 

Zolan Kanno-Youngs is a White House correspondent covering a range of domestic and international issues in the Biden White House, including homeland security and extremism. He joined The Times in 2019 as the homeland security correspondent. @KannoYoungs

 

Michael D. Shear is a veteran White House correspondent and two-time Pulitzer Prize winner who was a member of team that won the Public Service Medal for Covid coverage in 2020. He is the co-author of “Border Wars: Inside Trump's Assault on Immigration.” @shearm