London Playbook: Screaming blue murder — Tough at
the top — Balls, balls, balls
BY EMILIO
CASALICCHIO
July 12,
2022 8:00 am
POLITICO
London Playbook
By EMILIO
CASALICCHIO
Good
Tuesday morning. This is Emilio Casalicchio. Eleni Courea will be in the hot
seat for the rest of the week.
DRIVING THE
DAY
SCREAMING
BLUE MURDER: The official starting gun for the Conservative leadership race
emits a dramatic bang this morning as nominations open, three candidates
(including frontrunner Rishi Sunak) host make-or-break launch events, and
rivals prepare for their first hustings showdown. The gaggle of top Tories who
want the levers of power in their sweating mitts each need 20 nominations from
colleagues before sundown. It means the pool of prime ministerial hopefuls will
undergo some ruthless draining before the credits roll on Love Island. And just
as the debauched dreamworld of Casa Amor must come crashing home in tears and
recriminations to the monogamous villa, the fun and games are about to get
brutal.
Scores on
the doors: As of this morning, and with half of Conservative MPs having
declared their preferences, three candidates are over the threshold of 20
nominations to move on to the next stage of the race: Sunak, Penny Mordaunt and
Tom Tugendhat. Liz Truss is not far off on 16, Jeremy Hunt and Kemi Badenoch
have 14, Suella Braverman has 11, Sajid Javid has 12 and Grant Shapps has 8.
Truss edges
toward the line: The foreign sec won the backing of new Education Secretary
James Cleverly last night, who issued a stinging rebuke against Sunak in the
Times, accusing the former chancellor of taking a Labour approach to public
spending and “plotting” against Boris Johnson (God forbid!) while in
government. The same paper notes that fellow Cabinet Ministers Jacob Rees-Mogg
and Nadine Dorries are set to back Truss too — neither of which were denied to
Playbook last night.
What it
means: The big Cabinet names coming out for Truss could magnetize other MPs
toward her momentum or leave them wondering whether association with the more
eccentric corners of the movement is indeed something to be proud of. At the
same time, some are seeing the endorsement from vociferous supporters of Boris
Johnson as the PM sticking two fingers up to his former chancellor.
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What it
also means: The Conservative hard right (as opposed to the apparent soft right
of Brexit-original Thatcherite Rishi Sunak) might want to get its ducks in a
row if it wants to be sure one of its representatives makes the final two.
Truss, Badenoch, Braverman and (still undeclared) Priti Patel are thought to be
fishing in the same pool; at risk of splitting the vote and letting Sunak fight
a more moderate opponent.
This is
going well: Playbook hears Braverman and Patel have been locked in talks about
a deal while both attempt to court Euroskeptic MPs. But Braverman refuses to
quit and Patel refuses to confirm she won’t stand — hence the impasse. One
Braverman supporter said it was “insane” that Patel won’t back down and shared
this beautiful piece of modern art that has been doing the rounds among
Braverfans.
Getting
serious: “We are watching Rishi sail past before anyone’s got their pants on,”
one Conservative voice on the right lamented to the Guardian team. Charles
Hymas and Chris Hope have the best of the right-wing psychodrama in the
Telegraph. Truss allies are meanwhile urging MPs to back her or get Sunak — a
warning that makes the front page of the Mail.
Watch out
for … the candidate self-styled Conservative godfather and ex-hard liquor
salesman David Frost throws his weight behind. His pals make it clear on page
eight of the Daily Mail that it won’t be Sunak — as if his appearance on GB
News and subsequent tweets weren’t enough.
ICYMI:
Conservative bosses last night signed off on the rules of the contest, which
will see the first ballot tomorrow and candidates needing at least 30 votes to
reach the next round. After further rounds before recess and a campaign over
the summer for the final two to spend £300,000 killing each other, we’ll find
out who the next PM is on September 5, with that person taking over the next
day, September 6. Let’s hope it’s a good one. Playbook’s Eleni Courea has a
full write-up.
Guessing
games: It’s hard to predict who makes it onto the final two, but this bloke
reckons it will be Sunak and Mordaunt, and he called it good in 2019.
Which is
just as well because … Mordaunt is the grassroots’ favorite to win the race,
according to a shock poll from ConservativeHome last night. She has 20 percent
of support — although Badenoch is just behind on 19 percent. Sunak has 12
percent, while Braverman and Truss are both on 10 percent. Tugendhat is on 7
percent, while the others are 4 percent or below, with Patel and Shapps coming
bottom of the list with almost nothing.
Not having
it: The camps who didn’t come out too well in the poll turned on it, with one
campaign wag noting it was “self-selecting” and a “bogus exercise.” Others
claimed the process might have been rigged, with the better performing
candidates getting their associations to submit answers en masse. Those in
middling positions argued the race was proved to be wide open, while some
pointed to other polls suggesting their candidates have a better chance of
winning.
Keep a
lookout for: ConHome will be publishing further runoff polls from mid-morning
showing who has the best chance of beating whom in the final two.
NOW CHECK
THIS OUT: Playbook’s excellent secret weapon Andrew McDonald has been up all
night compiling data for some shit-hot interactive graphs about which
leadership candidates Conservative MPs are backing. We’ll be launching a web
page later where readers can toggle around with levels of support according to
various metrics such as Brexit allegiance and intake date — but for now here
are three examples to whet Playbook reader appetites.
infographic
IT’S TOUGH
AT THE TOP: Does being in poll position mean it’s time for rivals to start
briefing against Mordaunt? You betcha. One friend of a rival camp told Playbook
last night that the trade minister refused to lead a Westminster Hall debate as
part of her brief during the afternoon, instead leaving brand new Exports Minister
Andrew Griffiths (who had been in the gig for less than 72 hours — including
the weekend) to pick up the slack. Camp Mordaunt insists she was never meant to
lead the debate.
Worth
noting: POLITICO’s Morning Trade U.K. newsletter long ago reported on tensions
within the trade department over allegations Mordaunt swerves tasks she isn’t
interested in. Aside from her pet project U.S. states tours, she is otherwise
said to shirk foreign travel and go to ground in her House of Commons office to
work on her leadership campaign. Her camp didn’t dignify the claims with an
answer.
It doesn’t
end there: Mordaunt was getting it in the neck last night from Braverman
campaign manager and freedom fanatic Steve Baker for voting for Theresa May’s
Brexit deal. He told Andrew Marr on LBC: “I’m sorry, Penny, but where were you
when I needed you? She was supposed to be a Brexiteer. And when I was a
bruised, you know, beaten captain in the trenches, Penny was staying in the
Cabinet along with others.” Baker never does things in halves.
THE CHAT
TONIGHT: The first hustings of the campaign kicks off at 5 p.m. this evening in
committee room 11, hosted by the social justice caucus. Former Conservative leader
Iain Duncan Smith will chair.
THE CHAT
LAST NIGHT: Rivals were wondering what Javid was up to while the rest of them
clinked glasses on the Commons terrace for the 1922 committee summer reception.
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CAMPAIGN
ROUNDUP
TEAM RISHI:
Sunak will seek to get out on the front foot this morning and avoid being
painted as some kind of reincarnation of Karl Marx as he delivers a speech near
Westminster around 10 a.m. He will offer a taster of the bleeding red taxes
meat his colleagues crave with the promise: “Once we have gripped inflation, I
will get the tax burden down. It is a question of ‘when,’ not ‘if.’” He will
contrast himself as the responsible economic manager for tough times, while his
rivals spunk uncosted tax cuts all over the curtains. He makes the FT and Times
splashes.
Grandees
agree: Sunak’s approach wins endorsement from three former chancellors this
morning: Norman Lamont, who insists Margaret Thatcher would have dealt with the
deficit before cutting tax; Ken Clarke, who told Newsnight the breathless
promises of tax cuts were “populist nonsense;” and Philip Hammond, who told the
Times tax cuts would stoke inflation. Former Conservative leader William Hague
meanwhile wrote in the same paper that the tax-slashing pledges risked the
“priceless reputation for disciplined economic management” that Conservatives
like to trumpet.
Perfect
timing: Office for Budget Responsibility Chair Richard Hughes is appearing at
an Institute for Government event this morning. Register to attend or stream
here from 9.30 a.m.
TEAM KEMI:
Badenoch is doing an in-person launch at the Policy Exchange think tank at 11
a.m. Aides said she would do a “short” Q&A — which sounds about right as
she has form for complaining about legitimate questions from journalists. The
event will be streamed on her social media accounts.
Just woke
up: Badenoch wrote in the Sun overnight about worthless degrees that laden
students with debt for unclear gain. “Sadly, some universities spend more time
indoctrinating social attitudes instead of teaching lifelong skills or how to
solve problems,” she said in a flourish of her anti-woke credentials. She
pledged to cut subsidies for low-quality degrees and make it easier to get into
nursing without needing to go to uni. The three Conservative MPs who quit the
government alongside her in protest at Boris Johnson, plus former Johnson bag
carrier Alex Burghart, have written in the Express explaining their support for
Badenoch.
Culture
wars: The Department for Culture, Media, Digital and Sport this morning pushes
back on Badenoch’s attacks on the online harms bill with polling suggesting
most adults want social media firms to do more to tackle harmful online
content. The bill is back in the Commons this afternoon.
Mad idea of
the morning: Former Cabinet Minister Michael Gove is working to encourage Sunak
and Badenoch to join forces, according to Kate Ferguson in the Sun. The paper
reckons the team would be named “Kishi.” Westminster is a messed-up place.
TEAM TOM:
Tugendhat is also doing his meatspace launch at 11 a.m. but at 4 Millbank,
where International Trade Secretary Anne-Marie Trevelyan will be introducing
him. He will go big on the war metaphors as he argues tax cuts are needed to
stimulate growth “but they can’t be the only round in the magazine.” He will
argue reductions must be matched with infrastructure spending, and will refuse
to set out a “shopping list” of tax proposals in contrast to rivals. Expect a
Q&A.
THE BAR IS
HIGH: After Team Javid handed out ice creams during his launch at the Cinnamon
Club (and jeez did Javid need one) the three candidates launching this morning
need some serious firepower to impress attendees. Javid didn’t even skimp,
pumping out Cornettos, Magnums and Twisters. Let’s see if the others come up
with the goods.
Speaking of
Javid: His financial affairs continue to trip him up, with the Independent’s
Anna Isaac this morning reporting that he exploited a tax loophole to benefit
from non-dom perks while working as an aide in the Treasury. Camp Saj pointed
out that Javid paid a big tax bill when he dissolved a trust in 2012 that would
have wiped out any accrued non-dom benefits, and has always declared his
finances to the relevant authorities.
Team Saj:
Javid is this morning urging all the other candidates to commit to taking part
in TV debates, after ITV announced it would run one this Sunday night at 7 p.m.
TEAM PENNY:
Mordaunt joins the growing number of candidates who are this morning tempering
the frenzied rush toward tax cuts. In an article for the Telegraph, she insists
debt as a percentage of GDP should fall over time and promises to roll out
“development corporations” which would drive growth and jobs in local areas.
She argues that just “looking at tax rises or cuts is a vast oversimplification
of our economic challenges. We should not just get stuck on the superficial
questions on tax and spending.”
Looking to
the Highlands: Mordaunt also manages to splash the Scottish Mail with a promise
to bust the SNP’s “yellow wall” and an insistence that now is not the time for
a second independence referendum.
TEAM
NADHIM: Zahawi sets out pledges on crime to Matt Dathan in the Times, promising
to confiscate the driving licenses of drug dealers and those who commit
“vehicle-enabled” offenses. He also wants police officers to be able to conduct
interviews on the spot rather than waste time taking suspects back to the
station. Zahawi is on BBC Breakfast this morning and LBC tonight (times below).
TEAMS JEZ
AND GRANT: Both Hunt and Shapps this morning pledge to spend 3 percent of GDP
on defense. In an article for the Times, Shapps doesn’t put a date on the
pledge, but in an announcement overnight Hunt said the target should be reached
by 2028 and also promised to halt cuts to armed personnel. Shapps is on Radio 4
this morning while Hunt will appear on LBC tonight (see times below).
NOW CHECK
THIS OUT: The Mirror team has a big rundown of the policies each candidate has
announced. Well worth a look here later this morning.
What isn’t
in there: Protections for the planet. “Boris Johnson leaves behind a welter of
unfinished climate business at home and abroad — and it’s not clear anyone else
will pick up the baton,” write POLITICO’s Karl Mathiesen and Eleni Courea in a
piece out this morning looking at how the environment has been forgotten in the
leadership race — or left out on purpose. Just as we head toward a dangerous
weekend of scorching heat, too.
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