Bardella
and Farage cast doubt on French and British pledges to Ukraine
Populist
champions in Paris and London are opposed to major troop deployments. They
might be in power soon.
January
15, 2026 5:15 pm CET
By Marion
Solletty, Laura Kayali and Esther Webber
PARIS —
Europe’s security pledges to Ukraine face a potential expiration date.
French
President Emmanuel Macron and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer are pressing
ahead with plans to guarantee Ukraine’s postwar security — including the
possible deployment of French and British troops as peacekeepers. But with
right-wing populist leaders rising fast in both countries, those commitments
could soon come under strain.
Jordan
Bardella of the National Rally is the front-runner to win France’s presidency
next year, while Nigel Farage’s Reform UK now leads the polls in Britain by a
wide margin ahead of an election due by 2029. Both men have cast doubt on
large-scale troop deployments to Ukraine, raising fresh questions about whether
Paris and London can stand by promises made today.
That
uncertainty matters. As Western Europe’s only two nuclear powers, France and
Britain are central to efforts to deter Russia from attacking Ukraine again —
especially as U.S. President Donald Trump insists Europe must bear more of the
burden once a ceasefire is reached. For Kyiv, the worry is not theoretical.
Long-term security guarantees depend on political continuity in Paris and
London — and that continuity looks far from certain.
Asked by
POLITICO this week whether he would honor French commitments to Ukraine’s
security made by Macron if he were elected president, Bardella was evasive.
“We
expressed our reservations about French soldiers being deployed to the
frontline,” the National Rally president said. “The coalition of the willing
that met in Paris put a number of conditions on paper, we support some of them,
for instance drone surveillance of a buffer zone between Ukraine and Russia.”
Farage
last week also said he was only open to Britain being part of a temporary
peacekeeping mission to Ukraine "on rotation." He added British
forces were in "no position" to be part of a major security
commitment like the U.K. army's deployment on the Rhine during the Cold War.
That's
not what Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy wants to hear.
“Of
course we are concerned,” said a Paris-based diplomat, who declined to speak on
the record about a sensitive matter. “My job as diplomat … is to prepare well
enough, to explain to whoever sits in the Élysée that this is actually what
France needs” for its own security.
Zelenskyy
and his allies, particularly from countries that share a border with Russia,
have long warned that Ukraine's security is closely tied to Europe’s, and that
President Vladimir Putin will ramp up his attacks on the continent if the West
fails to show its strength in Ukraine.
Both
Bardella and his mentor Marine Le Pen — who is the party’s official
presidential candidate but is currently under a five-year election ban pending
her appeal trial — have been at pains to detach from their party’s past ties
with Moscow and pledged support to Ukraine. But they also heavily criticized
Macron’s proposals to put boots on the ground, accusing him of warmongering.
The French president "has belligerent tendencies that worry many of our
compatriots," Bardella said on the BFM TV channel in December.
A top
French military officer, speaking on condition of anonymity to talk candidly,
acknowledged that a National Rally win in 2027 would be “a problem” for the
allied camp, but added it would be difficult for the far right to bring home
troops if they are already deployed in Ukraine.
The
officer added that France’s military top brass would likely “tell Marine Le Pen
that the consequences will be disastrous.”
Voters
support Ukraine ... in theory
“Giving
security guarantees when the next elections could change everything is a
problem,” said Jacob Ross, a Paris-based research fellow at the German Council
on Foreign Relations (DGAP) when asked about both France and the U.K.
In
France, he added, the lack of political consensus on deploying French troops in
postwar Ukraine goes beyond the far right's opposition: Any troop deployment
would need parliament approval after four months and it is unlikely there would
be a majority to approve it “even today.”
Surveys
consistently show broad backing for Ukraine in general across the political
spectrum, but National Rally voters are reluctant when it comes to ramping up
support to Kyiv.
In an
exclusive POLITICO poll conducted in November, 52 percent of National Rally
voters said France had given more than enough support to Ukraine, compared with
35 percent in the general population.
The
Farage factor
Things
aren’t looking much better across the English Channel for Ukraine supporters
because populist champion Farage, who recently shook hands with Bardella in
London, has also raised objections to troop deployment.
Reform
UK’s leader said last week he would vote against the government’s plan to put
boots on the ground in Ukraine as it stands.
Farage
said at a press conference that while he was “not a pacifist,” he could not
support the plan without a clearer exit strategy, higher defense spending and
more European allies contributing troops.
However,
the right-wing populist leader has not ruled out making any contribution. Asked
by POLITICO if there were circumstances in which he’d support sending troops to
Ukraine, the Reform leader replied: “Would I be prepared to be part of an
international peacekeeping force? Yes.”
“But our
own engagement with it would be time-restricted and on rotation — then you
might think seriously about saying yes. In these circumstances, no, I don't
believe this has been properly thought through,” he added.
Reform UK
currently has only six MPs in parliament but has been leading Starmer’s Labour
in the polls by a wide margin for months.
A general
election in the U.K. is not due until 2029 — but it is in the prime minister's
power to call one sooner. Starmer's low personal ratings have fueled talk of a
leadership challenge, which may lead to calls for another national poll.
Peter
Ricketts, former U.K. national security adviser and U.K. ambassador to France,
acknowledged there was “uncertainty about continuity of policy, particularly in
France given the election in 2027.”
He added:
“Ukraine can only work with the leaders in power now. Where the U.K. might be
after the next election feels light years away given what Ukraine is coping
with night by night.”
A U.K.
defense official, not authorized to speak publicly, expressed concern that
Farage’s posture undermines Britain’s promises to Ukraine, warning that — if
pursued in government — his approach "could spell disaster for national
and European security.”
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