Romanian
run-off the most crucial on Europe’s ‘Super Sunday’ of elections
A far-right
win is real possibility in eastern European state on same day as votes in
Poland, Portugal and Montenegro
Jon Henley
Europe correspondent
Sun 18 May
2025 06.00 CEST
Romanians
have started voting in a pivotal presidential run-off that could radically
alter their country’s strategic alignment and economic prospects, as voters in
Poland and Portugal also prepare to cast their ballots in a European electoral
“super Sunday”.
The Romanian
contest, the most consequential of the three, pits a brash, EU-critical,
Trump-admiring populist against a centrist independent in a knife-edge vote
that analysts have called most important in the country’s post-communist
history.
George
Simion, a former soccer ultra and ultranationalist agitator who sees his
far-right AUR party as a “natural ally” of the US Maga movement, comfortably
won the 4 May first round with a score of 41%, double that of the Bucharest
mayor, Nicuşor Dan.
Recent polls
have shown the gap between the two candidates closing, with one putting them
neck and neck and another placing Dan – who has described the vote as a battle
between “a pro-western and an anti-western Romania” – ahead.
“This
election isn’t just about the president of Romania but about its entire
direction,” said Siegfried Mureşan, a liberal Romanian MEP. Simion would
“weaken Europe’s unity, undermine support for Ukraine, and benefit only
Vladimir Putin,” he added.
In Poland,
13 contenders are vying to be the country’s next head of state in the first
round of presidential elections, with the centrist mayor of Warsaw, Rafał
Trzaskowski, a senior member of prime minister Donald Tusk’s Civic Coalition,
the frontrunner.
Polls
predict that Trzaskowski and Karol Nawrocki, a historian who is formally
independent but has been endorsed by the former national-conservative Law and
Justice (PiS) government, will advance to the second round, which is due on 1
June.
A win for
the centrist would boost Tusk’s ability to push through his reformist agenda,
which has been hampered by Polish presidents’ power to veto legislation passed
by parliament. The outgoing president, Andrzej Duda, is a PiS ally.
Portugal,
meanwhile, heads to the polls for its third snap general election in three
years after the centre-right prime minister, Luís Montenegro, triggered and
lost a confidence vote in parliament over questions about his family’s business
activities.
Montenegro’s
Democratic Alliance (AD) platform is forecast to finish first but fall short of
a majority, and could struggle to form a government, especially if the
Socialist party (PS), likely to finish second, keeps its pledge to oppose his
legislative agenda.
Montenegro
has vowed not to work with the far-right Chega, whose leader, former TV
football pundit André Ventura, was hospitalised on Friday after twice
collapsing at rallies, but could be replaced as party leader with someone more
Chega-compatible.
Simion’s win
triggered the collapse of Romania’s government of centre-left Social Democrats
(PSD) and centre-right Liberals (PNL), and whoever wins will nominate the next
prime minister and influence the formation of a new ruling coalition.
The vote is
a rerun of last November’s ballot, won by a far-right, Moscow-friendly
firebrand, Călin Georgescu, who was barred from standing again after the vote
was cancelled amid allegations of campaign finance violations and Russian
meddling.
Simion has
promised to nominate Georgescu, who is under formal investigation on counts
including misreporting campaign spending, illegal use of digital technology and
promoting fascist groups, as prime minister if he becomes president.
Romanian
presidents have a semi-executive role with considerable powers over foreign
policy, national security, defence spending and judicial appointments. They can
also dissolve parliament if MPs reject two prime ministerial nominations.
Analysts
have said that since neither PSD or PNL would want a snap election with
Simion’s AUR – the second biggest party in parliament – in the ascendant, a
minority AUR-led government, backed perhaps by PSD, is a clear possibility if
Simion wins.
Simion
opposes further aid to Ukraine and has sharply criticised the EU’s leadership.
While he insists he wants Romania to stay in the EU and Nato, he could ally
with Hungary’s Viktor Orbán and Slovakia’s Robert Fico as another disruptive
force.
“Simion’s
election would mark a sea change in Romanian politics, creating significant
risks to domestic stability, Bucharest-Brussels relations, and EU unity over
Ukraine,” said Mujtaba Rahman of the political risk consultancy Eurasia Group.
The prospect
of a Simion win has spooked markets and investors, causing the Romanian leu to
plunge and major foreign business chambers in Romania have warned of a “rapid
deterioration” in the business climate. Romania has the EU’s highest budget
deficit.
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