In
Austria’s Kickl, the EU has its next Orbán
Vienna could
be about to get its first far-right leader since World War II. Europe’s
mainstream sees trouble brewing.
January 8,
2025 4:25 am CET
By Oliver
Noyan
Europe’s
next national leader looks likely to come from the far right.
With Herbert
Kickl in pole position to become chancellor of Austria, the European Union’s
establishment is bracing for fresh torment ― and another punch in the guts in
its stand against Russia’s Vladimir Putin.
Kickl, who
would become Austria’s first far-right leader since World War II, has made no
secret of admiring Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and is likely to
follow a similar playbook: cozying up to the Kremlin, clashing with the EU
mainstream, and pursuing hardline policies in areas like migration.
If his
Freedom Party (FPÖ) takes charge, it would mean a swathe of the EU, from
Hungary through Austria to Slovakia under outspoken Prime Minister Robert Fico
― and potentially to the Czech Republic, where former Prime Minister Andrej
Babiš is leading in polls ahead of an election in October ― would be
sympathetic toward Russia three years into Putin’s full-scale invasion of
Ukraine.
It also
brings back disturbing memories for Brussels, which in 2000 saw the FPÖ under
one of Kickl’s predecessors, Jörg Haider, become part of Austria’s governing
coalition. At the time, other governments within the EU broke off bilateral
contacts with Vienna.
Should he
become chancellor, Kickl goes one better than Haider. On Tuesday he fired the
starting gun on coalition talks with the center-right Austrian People’s Party
(ÖVP) following the breakdown of negotiations among mainstream parties.
'Third world
war'
The
similarities between Kickl and Orbán, whom he has called a “role model,” are
striking. Just like Orbán, the FPÖ is banking on Russian gas, is highly
critical of sanctions against Russia, and wants to cut aid to Ukraine.
What’s
worrying for the EU, especially in areas where agreement among all 27
governments is needed, is that the duo would likely work together to block
major initiatives. Orbán has been an irritant to Brussels for years, but while
he has ultimately often bowed to political pressure ― such as on EU enlargement
just over a year ago ― Hungary and Austria combined could be a force to be
reckoned with.
It’s not
hard to imagine that the first victim could be Ukraine.
“The
European Union is currently pursuing a course of escalation at every turn,
which could end in a third world war,” Kickl’s party program reads.
Sanctions on
Russia make the EU “partly to blame” for the “suffering and death in Ukraine
and Russia” and only fuel further conflict, according to Harald Vilimsky, the
FPÖ’s lead candidate for the EU election and a member of the European
Parliament.
Kickl’s
party echoes U.S. President-elect Donald Trump in saying the EU should embrace
a “peace policy” to force Ukraine to the negotiation table. The party has
pledged to block any aid to Ukraine though the European Peace Facility ― a pot
of cash for security.
In 2016 the
party even signed a “friendship agreement” with Putin’s United Russia party in
which the two sides agreed to exchange information and to hold regular joint
consultations.
Echoes of
the Nazi period
While Kickl
stressed after Russia’s February 2022 invasion of Ukraine that this friendship
agreement has since expired, the party still holds a favorable view of Russia.
Visits by Orbán and Fico to Moscow were described as “real peace diplomacy” by
the Austrian far right.
Kickl, who
proclaimed himself the people’s chancellor, or Volkskanzler, during the 2024
election campaign ― the term came to prominence when the Nazis seized power in
Germany in 1933 ― is also eyeing a complete revamp of Austria’s asylum system.
He has vowed
to preserve the “homogeneity” of the Austrian people by suspending the right of
asylum though an “emergency law,” and by pushing for the “consistent
remigration” of asylum seekers. This would be a clear violation of EU law.
The party’s
program advocates the placement of European migration centers in third
countries for “millions of people,” and the halting of payments to the EU if
the bloc doesn’t keep its promise to “protect” its external borders.
The FPÖ is
also aiming to unravel the European Green Deal, a set of EU policies aimed at
making the bloc carbon neutral, which it deems one of the major causes of
Europe’s lack of competitiveness. “The corset of EU regulations must be
broken,” the party program reads.
Precedent
for Germany
In Germany,
the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), polling second in the runup to
February’s election, is celebrating.
While the
AfD and FPÖ don’t sit in the same pan-European group in the European
Parliament, they are closely aligned, fueling fears in Berlin that Austria
could set a precedent for Europe’s largest economy and closest neighbor.
Kickl’s
appointment to form a government has been criticized across the political
spectrum in Germany.
“A look at
Austria shows what happens when you are no longer able to form an alliance,”
German Economy Minister Robert Habeck of the Greens told Deutschlandfunk public
radio.
On the other
hand, Alice Weidel, co-leader of the AfD, has called on the German center right
to tear down the cordon sanitaire and consider entering a coalition government,
a plea the conservatives have so far steadfastly refused.
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