Who will
be the next European commissioners?
What we know
so far about Ursula von der Leyen’s next top team.
Before
taking a break to spend time with her family, European Commission President
Ursula von der Leyen will ask the EU’s national governments to send in the
names of the next EU commissioners. |
JULY 24,
2024 8:30 PM CET
BY BARBARA
MOENS
BRUSSELS —
You’ve got mail!
Before
taking a break to spend time with her family, European Commission President
Ursula von der Leyen will ask the EU’s national governments to send in the
names of who they want to be in the next team of commissioners.
Each country
gets one commissioner. Von der Leyen counts as Germany's choice and Kaja
Kallas, backed by EU leaders to be the next foreign policy chief, will be
Estonia's representative (the foreign policy chief is appointed by the European
Council but is a vice-president of the Commission). Von der Leyen is asking
each country to nominate a man and a woman, except when the incumbent
commissioner is staying on.
Before you
close your laptop to head out to the beach, POLITICO gets you up to speed with
where things stand.
Who is
staying?
Several
governments opted to avoid a nasty domestic fight by sending back their current
person in the Berlaymont, the Commission’s HQ. After all, their experience and
personal relationship with von der Leyen could help clinch a better portfolio.
Maroš Šefčovič (Slovakia) and Valdis Dombrovskis (Latvia) for example, known as
two steady hands, will add another five years at the European Commission to
their resumes. The same probably goes for Dubravka Šuica (Croatia), although
she has not yet been officially named by her government. The Dutch
commissioner, Wopke Hoekstra, entered the European Commission in October as a
replacement for climate czar Frans Timmermans and is coming back for another
five years, even though his party is not in the Dutch government. It’s still
unclear whether the French and Greek leaders will decide to send back their
current commissioners, Thierry Breton and Margaritis Schinas.
Which new
names should we already learn to pronounce?
A growing
number of countries have started putting forward names, even before von der
Leyen sent her official request. Spain hopes to clinch a large energy and
climate portfolio for Ecological Transition Minister Teresa Ribera, especially
as she is likely to be the most senior socialist in the next Commission. Sweden
is sending its EU Minister Jessika Roswall, Finland is sending MEP Henna
Virkkunen, Slovenia sent the former President of the Court of Audit Tomaž
Vesel, Ireland put forward Finance Minister Michael McGrath, and the Czech
Republic nominated Industry and Trade Minister Jozef Síkela.
Great, but
that still leaves over a dozen countries unaccounted for...
A lot of the
puzzle is still unclear, despite the rumor mill working overtime in Brussels.
More and more countries will be putting forward their names in the coming
weeks.
So far, no
one has publicly put forward two candidates, as requested. But European leaders
are well aware that von der Leyen is eying another gender-balanced Commission.
In some cases, there will be behind the scenes haggling about names and
portfolios before anything official comes out, to avoid publicly damaging a
candidate who might be rejected.
Ursula von
der Leyen counts as Germany's choice and Kaja Kallas. |
In other
cases, national politicians are fighting each other over the nomination. In
Lithuania, the prime minister and the president are openly fighting over the
candidate. In Poland, the fight is happening behind closed doors. Other
countries, such as Bulgaria and Belgium, are in the midst of forming new
governments, which makes it difficult to decide on a name.
What are the
big prizes to fight over?
It's no
secret that France envisages an economic super-portfolio that will help steer
the bloc's industrial agenda in the face of competition from the U.S. and China
— potentially with oversight of areas where Brussels has hard power: trade and
competition. But Italy is also fishing around for this role. One crucial
question is whether von der Leyen decides to keep far-right leader Giorgia
Meloni sweet with a prime job for an Italian from her camp, or leave her with
the more symbolic new Mediterranean portfolio.
Enlargement
will be a top-level portfolio because negotiations over expanding the EU to
include Ukraine will be one of the Commission's most politically sensitive
jobs.
Agriculture
commissioner is also one to watch given the EU's outsize role in the farm and
food sector. It's also a post that exposes how hard it is to build a
politically balanced Commission. Luxembourg's Christophe Hansen from the
center-right European People's Party has emerged as an early hot tip in this
area, as the Socialist camp seems to have given up hopes for Luxembourg's
current commissioner and the socialist lead candidate during the campaign,
Nicolas Schmit, to do another term, potentially scotching Hansen's hopes.
Didn't I
hear about some exciting new jobs on offer?
You sure
did. Von der Leyen will be looking for a commissioner dedicated to the
Mediterranean, which sounds lovely but is probably a hardcore job looking at
immigration and the parlous security situation in the Middle East and North
Africa. Cyprus has made early expressions of interest in that one.
There's also
the prospect of a defense commissioner, which generated some early excitement
until candidates realized how little power the EU has in that domain.
Speculation for a while focused on Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski,
until he counted himself out. Poland is sometimes also mentioned as a likely
runner for the enlargement job given Warsaw's support for Kyiv, but the role
could open up prickly problems in domestic politics, with Polish farmers less
than enthusiastic about integrating Ukraine's huge agri sector into the EU.
So who gets
what portfolio?
That’s up to
von der Leyen. She has to take into account gender balance, political party
balance and geographical balance. Leaders will (and already have, in return for
their support for von der Leyen in the European Council) haggle over
portfolios, hoping to secure a powerful post. It will be a challenge to find
enough women, so countries putting forward a female candidate have an advantage
over those sending a man. Von der Leyen has also made very clear to leaders
that she wants experienced and capable commissioners, ideally with some
previous executive experience in their home countries.
What happens
next?
The European
capitals have until the end of August to send in their candidates. Von der
Leyen will start interviewing the (new) candidates as of mid-August, after
which she will start putting all the puzzle pieces together. Von der Leyen was
the first to set up a gender-balanced European Commission in 2019 and wants to
repeat that this time around, which is why she is asking leaders to send a
candidate from each gender.
In parallel,
the homework for the next commissioners is being prepared. The political
guidelines that von der Leyen unveiled before her confirmation vote in the
Parliament — essentially, her plan for the next five years — will form the
basis of the mission letters that will be sent to the new commissioners,
setting out what will be expected of them.
Speculation
for a while focused on Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski, until he
counted himself out. |
Once von der
Leyen’s work is done, it’s up to the European Parliament to grill the new
commissioners in hearings that are set to take place at the end of September
and in October. The Parliament can reject candidates, and likes to flex its
muscle by giving a few the thumbs down. If that happens, the country in
question will need to nominate a new candidate. In 2019, the first French,
Romanian and Hungarian commissioner picks were binned.
The hope of
EU officials is to have the new European Commission in place by November 1.
Max Griera,
Eddy Wax, Nektaria Stamouli and Jacopo Barigazzi contributed reporting.
Sem comentários:
Enviar um comentário