The E.U. Votes: What We’re Watching For
The main things to know as voters in 27 countries head
to the ballot box to shape the next five years of European Union policies.
Matina
Stevis-GridneffSarah Hurtes
By Matina
Stevis-Gridneff and Sarah Hurtes
Reporting
from Brussels
June 9,
2024, 12:01 a.m. ET
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/09/world/europe/the-eu-votes-what-were-watching-for.html
More than
300 million voters in the 27 countries that make up the European Union are
heading to the polls to elect the new European Parliament’s 720 members. But in
casting their ballots they’ll do more than that.
The new
balance of power in the Parliament will shape the next five years of important
European policies at home and abroad, including on climate, migration, Ukraine
and the Middle East.
The
Parliament approves or rejects E.U. legislation, including the bloc’s $1
trillion-plus budget and the bloc’s top leadership. It also says yea or nay, by
simple majority in a secret ballot, to the appointment of the president of the
E.U. executive branch, the powerful European Commission.
In the 2019
election, Ursula von der Leyen, a conservative, came dangerously close to being
rejected as the European Commission president, securing the Parliament’s
approval by just nine votes. This time, Ms. von Leyen, likely to be designated
as president for a second five-year term, could face worse odds. As with many
incumbents, she is criticized for her handling of the last five years’ crises.
Polls
predict gains for hard-right parties in the Parliament and a shrinking center.
This could force her to cut a deal with radical right-wing parties to get
appointed, and in the process risk losing centrist support.
A handful
of countries began voting on Thursday, but the vast majority vote on Sunday.
Polls close at different times around the bloc, but projected results should be
in after 6:30 p.m. local time (12:30 E.D.T.).
Here are
the key trends that have been projected.
The center may not hold
Political
parties run in their respective countries, but once they enter the European
Parliament, they form super parties, banding together in like-minded groups.
The largest
of these has traditionally been the mainstream conservative European People’s
Party, which dates to the 1950s. The
group includes major center-right parties like the Christian Democratic Union
of Germany and the Republicans of France. Ms. von der Leyen is a member. The
European People’s Party is projected to maintain its top position in the vote,
performing only slightly worse than in 2019.
The two
other centrist groups are expected to lose seats. The Socialists &
Democrats, the biggest left-leaning centrist group, is projected to lose some
10 percent of its seats.
The other,
Renew Europe, a smaller liberal group, has been dominated by the French
president Emmanuel Macron’s centrists since 2019. But divisions on issues like
the environment and business have weakened its influence. It is expected to
lose 20 percent of its seats.
Fragmented far right
Polling
foreshadows big gains for far-right parties that run on a spectrum of
anti-migrant, nationalist agendas. But it’s a crowded, splintering space led by
competing personalities.
The
European Conservatives and Reformists are projected to secure fourth place in
the new Parliament with a possible 30 percent more seats than in 2019 — a feat.
They are led by Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni of Italy, whose insider/outsider
status in the E.U. establishment may make her the kingmaker after the results
come in. If the center weakens, as predicted in the polls, Ms. von der Leyen
will have little choice but to turn to Ms. Meloni for support.
This will
irk other centrists, who suspect Ms. Meloni of being a radical right-winger in
mainstream conservative clothes and criticize her for anti-migrant statements
and domestic policies like laws limiting gay rights.
Predicted
to finish fifth, but much stronger than in 2019, is the Identity and Democracy
group, led by the far-right nationalist Marine Le Pen. This group is more
deeply anti-establishment and populist, and it has hard-line anti-migrant
views. This group has been in some turmoil in recent weeks, expelling its
German member, Alternative for Germany.
An
important distinction between the two groups is their perspective on relations
with the United States. Ms. Le Pen is seen as pro-Russia, whereas Ms. Meloni
has been unwavering in her support of Ukraine. It’s a big thing to set aside,
but, if they did, they could be the second-largest group in the European
Parliament.
Green grind
The Greens
did very well in the 2019 elections, finding a special place for their
ambitious agenda in the Parliament. But they are predicted to lose a third of
their seats this time around, stemming from a combination of factors. Many
voters see the key elements of the climate change agenda reflected in the
mainstream and don’t see why they should vote for the Greens. Others,
particularly rural voters, feel the green agenda has gone too far.
Finally,
The Left, the Parliament’s most left-wing party, is expected to hold more or
less steady.
A caveat
Polls
everywhere have often been way off in recent electoral cycles for a variety of
reasons. A particular complicating factor is that the European Union elections
happen in 27 countries, and the robustness of the polling comes down to very
local factors. Experts note that polls often overestimate the far right and
underestimate the fervor of pro-E.U. and pro-Green voters who are highly
motivated and disciplined.
If the
Dutch elections for the European Parliament, which took place on Thursday,
ahead of many other countries, are anything to go by, some of those warnings
are fair. In the Netherlands, where a far-right party dominated national
elections recently and was gunning for first, the Greens and Socialists came in
on top instead, reporting a very strong 80 percent turnout in their supporters’
ranks.
Matina
Stevis-Gridneff is the Brussels bureau chief for The Times, leading coverage of
the European Union. More about Matina Stevis-Gridneff
Sarah
Hurtes is a Times reporter working on international investigations from
Brussels. More about Sarah Hurtes
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