France braced for ‘most consequential election in
decades’ after far-right surge
‘Audacious’ move by Macron seen as attempt to catch RN
off-guard and reclaim initiative after EU poll drubbing
Sam Jones,
Jon Henley, Jennifer Rankin, Lisa O'Carroll and agencies
Mon 10 Jun
2024 10.00 BST
https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/jun/10/france-braced-election-far-right-surge-macron
France is
braced for its “most consequential” election in decades after the country’s
president, Emmanuel Macron, stunned politicians and the public by announcing
snap legislative elections following a drubbing at the hands of the far-right
National Rally (RN) in Sunday’s European parliamentary elections.
The RN won
about 32% of the vote on Sunday, more than double the 15% or so scored by
Macron’s allies, according to exit polls. The Socialists on 14% came within a
whisker of the Macron group.
Macron’s
Renaissance party currently has 169 deputies in the national assembly and the
RN 88.
The
unexpected decision, which amounts to a roll of the dice on Macron’s political
future, could hand major political power to the far right after years on the
sidelines and neuter his presidency three years before it ends. If the
far-right party wins an outright majority, the president would in effect lose
control over most French domestic policy.
“This will
be the most consequential parliamentary election for France and for the French
in the history of the Fifth Republic,” the finance minister, Bruno Le Maire,
told RTL radio. “We must fight for France and for the French. We have three
weeks to campaign and convince the French.”
The
legislative vote will take place on 30 June – less than a month before the
start of the Paris Olympics – with a second round on 7 July. The results are
likely to depend on how committed leftwing and centre-right voters are to
keeping the far right away from power.
Analysts
have said an outright far-right majority is unlikely – partly because voters
often use European elections as a low-cost way of delivering a kick to the
incumbent government, and things may well turn out differently in a
parliamentary election.
Macron’s
gamble is being seen as an attempt to make the best of his weak position by
reclaiming the initiative and forcing the RN into election mode faster than it
would have liked.
The
president’s move appeared to have caught some far-right leaders off-guard. “We
didn’t think it would be immediately after the European elections, even if we
wanted it to be,” the deputy chair of the RN, Sébastien Chenu, said on RTL
Radio, adding: “Elections are rarely a gift and in this context, they aren’t.”
He called
for rightwing lawmakers from outside the RN to swell its ranks in its battle to
beat Macron, and said the party’s telegenic president, 28-year-old Jordan
Bardella, would be its candidate for prime minister.
Bardella’s
mentor, Marine Le Pen, who was runner-up in the last two presidential
elections, has remained party leader in parliament and is largely expected to
run again in 2027.
Le Figaro
reported that Bardella, Le Pen and Le Pen’s niece, Marion Maréchal – who headed
the list of the far-right Reconquête party in the EU elections – would hold a
“secret meeting” on Monday afternoon to “build the broadest possible group” for
the elections.
A source
close to Macron said the president was “going for the win”, adding that the
idea was to mobilise the voters who had stayed away on Sunday. “There’s
audacity in this decision, risk-taking, which has always been part of our
political DNA,” the source said.
But another
source close to Macron said: “I knew this option was on the table, but when it
becomes reality it’s something else ... I didn’t sleep last night.”
Announcing
his decision on Sunday night, Macron said he could not pretend nothing had
happened in the European elections. “I have decided to give you the choice …
therefore I will dissolve the national assembly tonight,” he said. The
president acknowledged that the decision was “serious and heavy”, but called it
“an act of confidence”.
He said he
had confidence in “the capacity of the French people to make the best choice
for themselves and for future generations”, adding: “This is an essential time
for clarification. I have heard your message, your concerns, and I will not
leave them unanswered … France needs a clear majority to act in serenity and
harmony.”
Not
everyone was convinced by the move. Yael Braun-Pivet, a senior figure within
Macron’s party who serves as the speaker of the lower house, appeared to
express some doubt on Monday morning, indicating that forming a coalition with
other parties could have been a better “path”.
“The
president believed that this path did not exist … I take note of the decision,”
she told the France 2 TV.
Raphaël
Glucksmann, who headed the Socialist party’s list, said Macron had “given in”
to Bardella. “This is a very dangerous game to play with democracy and the
institutions. I am flabbergasted.”
Another
critic, Valérie Pécresse, a senior figure in the conservative Les Républicains
party, said: “Dissolving without giving anyone time to organise and without any
campaign is playing Russian roulette with the country’s destiny.”
The mayor
of Paris, Anne Hidalgo, said the decision to send France to the polls just
weeks before the capital hosts the Olympic Games at the end of July was
“extremely troubling”.
But the
head France’s International Olympic Committee, Thomas Bach, attempted to play
down such concerns, saying the elections were “a democratic process that won’t
disrupt the games”.
He added:
“France is used to holding elections and they will do it once again. There will
be a new parliament, a new government, and everybody will support the Olympic
Games.”
Reuters and
Agence France-Presse contributed to this report
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