Is Jordan Bardella the new face of Europe?
Slick, disciplined and a hit with young voters, the
president of France's National Rally is remaking the far-right party in his
image.
By CLEA
CAULCUTT
in
Saint-Denis, France
https://www.politico.eu/article/jordan-bardella-france-far-right-european-election-2024/
MAY 31,
2024 4:00 AM CET
The French
famously despise their politicians. Upstarts enjoy brief honeymoons before
inevitably wilting under the public eye. Just a quarter of French people have
confidence in their government or the National Assembly, according to a recent
poll.
Then there’s Jordan Bardella. The president of
the far-right National Rally has weathered nearly a decade in politics,
including five as his party’s most prominent member of the European Parliament,
somehow without ever losing his luster.
As his
party’s lead candidate for next week’s European Parliament election, the
28-year-old is dominating his rivals in the polls. Nearly a third of French
voters plan to cast their ballots for the National Rally, according to POLITICO
Poll of Polls — giving a party once treated as too-toxic-to-consider double the
support of its nearest foe, French President Emmanual Macron’s Renaissance
party.
Polished,
composed to a fault, Bardella has become a TikTok sensation, deploying his
boy-next-door good looks and a carefully practiced smile to turn out the youth
vote. When the French weekly newspaper JDD compiled a list of the 50 most
popular figures in France, Bardella was the only politician to make the list.
Bardella’s
popularity, and a concurrent rise of the far right across the Continent,
represent a potential sea change in European politics, as the firewalls that
once kept out nationalist, Euroskeptic parties like the National Rally come
crashing down.
“Nothing is
preordained … [but] there is a scenario where we will face a post-traumatic
moment in Europe after the elections,” said a heavyweight from Macron’s Renew
group in the European Parliament. “There’s a real risk that Europe will be put
on pause, with limited ambitions.”
Six of the
27 European Union governments, including Italy’s, include parties that once
would have been considered far right. The Netherlands is set to join their
ranks. While a strong showing in June’s election won’t usher the National Rally
into the Elysée, the vote is widely seen as a barometer ahead of 2027 when the
party — headed most likely by its
longtime leader Marine Le Pen — is
expected to make another run at the presidency.
In past
elections, French voters have closed ranks to keep the far right out of power,
erecting a so-called cordon sanitaire (or firewall) to keep the far right out
of power.
Political
observers believe that’s no longer a sure thing. If the National Rally does
sweep into office in the next presidential election, it’ll be thanks in part to
an effort to reposition itself as a safe, palatable alternative to the
traditional parties of power — an effort personified by Bardella.
The making of a far-right leader
With his
immaculate suits and tightly cropped hair, the far-right candidate has built up
a far-right fandom who greet him with an ecstatic “Jordan!” at campaign stops
and follow his tirades, perfectly timed jokes and talk show exploits on social
media. French newspapers slap stories about him with headlines like “Bardella
superstar,” “the makeover of the far right,” “ultrabright populism” and “the
Bardella trap.”
Despite
being dinged in the media and by political opponents for a light grasp of the
issues, he has steadily widened the gap between him and Valérie Hayer, Macron’s
candidate in the race. It helps that his political canvassing has been more boy
band on tour, than grim campaigning, with endless TikTok posts and selfie poses
with fans.
“There’s a
‘Bardella’ phenomenon,” said a political adviser from the rival conservative
Les Républicains party. “People want to see Macron take a beating, and in a
confusing way, he manages to appear as a new political proposition for the
right and the far-right.”
In addition
to being a hit with the young — kick-starting his campaign in a nightclub with
drinks and a DJ — Bardella has also made
inroads with the old, a change-averse demographic his party has traditionally
struggled with. According to an IFOP poll published in April, 23 percent of
voters over 65 years old plan to vote for Bardella, up from 19 percent in 2019.
Even
Bardella’s opponents grudgingly allow him respect. “I know him well, he’s no
bogeyman,” said a heavyweight from Macron’s Renaissance party. “I’ve often got
bags under my eyes, disheveled hair, but he’s always the same, with his suit
and his neat hair.” Macron himself has crossed the cordon sanitaire to invite
Bardella to join his regular cross-party political discussions.
Le Pen has
described Bardella as a godsend in her effort to detoxify the party’s
reputation and prepare it for power. He “is not affected by the taboo that
surrounds the National Front vote,” she said, referring to the party’s former
name, which was associated with her father Jean-Marie Le Pen, a Holocaust
denier. “He’s part of a new generation.”
An
acquaintance of Bardella’s described her impression of meeting him when he was
22 and already a full-fledged politician. “I don’t think I’ve ever seen him not
wearing a suit,” said the acquaintance, a former official of the Paris regional
authority. “We never became friends but he was good at making conversation, at
engaging in repartee without revealing much about himself.”
Bardella’s
polish is no accident. Pascal Humeau, a former communication specialist with
the National Rally who has since fallen out with the party, said the far-right
candidate underwent intense media training. “He was an empty shell,” Humeau
said in an interview with documentary Complément d’enquête. “In terms of the
depth [of personality], he was pretty limited.”
“His ease,
his enthusiasm, that you can feel today, we had to work on it for months and
months,” Humeau said. He added that even Bardella’s smile and greetings were
products of painstaking training.
How Marcon set the table for the far right
Born to a
working-class family of Italian origins who came to France in the 1960s,
Bardella grew up in public housing in the Gabriel Péri estate in Saint-Denis,
an impoverished banlieue north of Paris that regularly makes the headlines as a
rough-and-tumble outpost for drug trafficking and violent crime. He joined the
National Rally as a teenager, dropping out of university to go into politics.
His mother was a nursery assistant from Turin. His father, himself the son of
an Italian immigrant, owned a drinks vending machine business.
During a
visit to the local market, most people POLITICO spoke with had heard of the
local boy making national headlines, but not a single one said they would vote
for him.
When it
comes to policy, Bardella sings from the National Rally hymn sheet, slamming
drug-related crime and “rampant Islamism” in the French banlieues. He plays up
his tough background as being in sharp contrast to many of Paris’ political
elite.
Bardella
was accused in January of having secretly shared racist comments on social
media when he was a regional councilor in 2016. He has denied the allegations.
Saint-Denis
is home to largely poor, immigrant and Muslim communities: More than 80 percent
of voters in Saint-Denis voted for Macron and against Le Pen in the runoff
round of the last presidential election. And yet, not all the residents of
Saint-Denis disagree with all of Bardella’s positions.
“What he
says is true,” said Mohamed Amrous, a shoe seller in the market. “Everybody
thinks the same here. I’m a child of the French nation, and the situation is
getting worse and worse. There’s more and more delinquency, insecurity and
incivilities.” Amrous said he would never vote for the National Rally, but he
agreed with Bardella that illegal migrants who are convicted of crimes should
be deported.
France is
no stranger to rising stars taking aim at the political establishment. It
wasn’t so long ago that they elected one such throw-out-the-rulebook candidate
as president. In 2017, Macron dynamited France’s political landscape, tearing
down the country’s major political parties on his way to its highest office. By
the time Macron was sworn in, only two major forces remained: his own and Le
Pen’s, setting the table for the challenge Bardella is presenting today.
“The
centrists see the National Rally as their only opponent,” said a former
Socialist heavyweight. “It creates a bipolar political landscape, and yes it
makes the alternative possible.”
A debate
last week between Bardella and Macron’s 35-year-old French Prime Minister
Gabriel Attal only reinforced that impression, with the two heir-apparents
battling it out with their competing visions of Europe in a television
appearance watched by 3.6 million viewers.
Bardella and Le Pen’s vision for Europe
Bardella
and Le Pen have been working hard to remake the National Rally’s image; in
another effort to distinguish herself from the most extremist elements of the
far right, Le Pen pointedly broke with the far-right Alternative for Germany
last week and reached out instead to Italy’s Giorgia Meloni, a far-right leader
who has successfully executed a pivot toward the center on the European stage.
But the
change is mostly cosmetic, said Jean-Yves Camus, a specialist on the far right
with the Paris-based think tank Fondation Jean Jaurès. While the National Rally
has shed its most toxic traits, like the elder Le Pen’s antisemitism, its
agenda remains the most radical in France, especially when it comes to
international organizations.
“Their
watchword is national sovereignty, and they refuse anything that would override
the sovereignty of the people, and that means the EU and NATO,” said Camus.
“They don’t like the International Criminal Court, nor the European Court of
Human Rights. They want to unravel the EU from the inside.”
While the
European Parliament election is relatively low stakes, a Le Pen victory in the
2027 presidential election would redraw the EU’s political landscape, adding
France to the list of countries like Hungary and Slovakia that have challenged
the establishment in Brussels by eschewing liberalism.
In
Brussels, the National Rally has systematically opposed most of the big policy
deals of the last ten years, including the EU’s Covid recovery fund, the
European Green Deal and military assistance for Ukraine. Le Pen’s 2022
presidential platform included calls for France to exit NATO’s integrated
military command. And while she has condemned the war in Ukraine, her party has
abstained on key votes in France and in the European Parliament for support for
Kyiv. A 2023 French parliamentary report
accused the National Rally of serving as a mouthpiece for the Kremlin.
Speaking to
POLITICO in March, Bardella delivered a surprise saying that though the
National Rally still wanted to leave NATO’s integrated command, it would only
do so after the war in Ukraine was over. “You don’t change treaties in
wartime,” Bardella said.
What could go wrong for Bardella
For the
upcoming vote, the National Rally has successfully spun the election as a
midterm referendum on Macron, rather than on the geopolitical threats facing
Europe. European elections have become a “pressure valve moment,” said
OpinionWay pollster Bruno Jeanbart. “It is an election difficult for a ruling
party, where people generally express their anger or disappointment,” he said.
Facing
assured defeat, Macron’s allies are already working to downplay its potential
impact. Bardella is popular they say but he’s a passing fad. “He’s the
catch-all vote, scooping up anger because we’ve been in power for almost ten
years,” said a member of parliament for Macron’s Renaissance party.
Bardella’s
weaknesses were on display in his debate with Attal. Though he has been a
member of the European Parliament since 2019, he has rarely engaged with the
chamber’s activities, tabling just 21 amendments during his mandate and mostly
skipping debates. While he didn’t perform as poorly against Attal as Le Pen did
against Macron in an embarrassing presidential debate in 2017, Bardella came
across as stiff and ill at ease, uncomfortable when he had to grapple with
substance or depart from his scripted responses.
“He’s
attracting a maximum of voters by not taking a clear stance on anything,” said
François-Xavier Bellamy, the lead candidate for the conservative Les
Républicains. “But at some point, he’ll have to stop being vague.”
Even
Bardella’s former allies describe him as shallow, more slick than substance. “I
quickly saw his convictions were very malleable,” said Florian Philippot, Le
Pen’s former right-hand man who left the party after the party’s defeat in the
2017 presidential election.
So far,
voters don’t seem to care. A poll taken shortly after the debate with Attal
showed support for Bardella not only undiminished but at a record high of 34
percent.
Bardella’s
biggest vulnerability might be growing speculation that he’s on a collision
course with Le Pen, in a party known for its quasi-Homeric leadership battles
(to which Philippot can attest).
A recent
poll also showed voters appeared to be swinging behind Bardella: 52 percent of
National Rally voters would vote for Bardella, compared to 43 percent for Le
Pen, according to an OpinionWay poll published this month.
While the
two have been taking pains to present themselves as a team ticket, it’s an
equilibrium that few believe is likely to last.
“There has
never been a No. 2 at the National Rally,” said a former National Rally
councilor. “Either you become No. 1 or you get killed off.” Jean-Marie Le Pen,
for example, dispatched two rivals before being sidelined by his daughter.
Undoubtedly
ambitious, Bardella is certainly familiar with the party’s history. “It’s in
his best interest to wait … but deep inside, I think he’s preparing himself,”
said the same councilor.
Given his
wider appeal and pro-business attitudes, there are some in the party that he
could be the one to take the party over the line in 2027, especially if Le Pen
is ruled ineligible for office following a pending trial for embezzlement.
But there
are more who believe he’s more likely to be on the losing end of any battle
with the woman who made his political fortunes and who continues to grip the
party with an iron fist.
“If he
blows a fuse, there are five people who’ll [follow him],” said a Le Pen ally.
“Even his campaign director wouldn’t follow him, he would never accept anyone
who has betrayed Le Pen.”
In other
words, in a clash with the party’s real heavyweight, Bardella could risk seeing
his star come crashing down to Earth.
Sarah
Paillou and Victor Goury-Laffont contributed reporting.
Photos by
Guillaume Horcajuelo/EFE via EPA; Bertrand Guay, Loic Venance, Geoffroy Van Der
Hasselt and Hans Lucas/AFP via Getty Images. Additional source images via
Freepik. Lettering via Textstudio. Additional illustration by Arnau Busquets
Guàrdia/POLITICO.
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