Brussels Playbook

 

Brussels Playbook

By NICHOLAS VINOCUR

with ZOYA SHEFTALOVICH

https://www.politico.eu/newsletter/brussels-playbook/is-isis-back/

 

TRACTOR TIME: Farmers are protesting again today in Brussels, aiming to gather around 10:30 a.m. on Rue de la Loi, with around 300 tractors expected. Count on disruptions from as early as 6 a.m., especially around the European Quarter.

 

DRIVING THE DAY: MOSCOW ATTACK FALLOUT 

PUTIN MISDIRECTS; EUROPE BRACES: In the wake of a terror attack that killed at least 139 people at Moscow’s Crocus concert hall, Russian President Vladimir Putin is doing his best to link the shooting — repeatedly claimed by Islamic State — to Ukraine.

 

The latest: Putin doubled down on those claims in a televised address late Monday during which he acknowledged “the crime was carried out by radical Islamists” and name-checked ISIS, but alluded to the “customer” being the “neo-Nazi Kyiv regime.”

 

Riiiight: Much of the world isn’t buying Putin’s version of events — Denis Leven dives into the autocrat’s history of twisting reality for his benefit, and reads the runes on what could come next.

 

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What beef could ISIS possibly have with Russia? In his address on Monday, Putin hinted that his regime’s cozy relationship with Hamas and hard line on Israel meant Russia would not be an ISIS target. “Are radical and even terrorist Islamic organizations really interested in striking Russia, which today stands for a fair solution to the escalating Middle East conflict?” mused Putin.

 

Here’s your answer: Putin propped up the regime of autocrat Bashar al-Assad against the Islamic State during the Syrian civil war; in September 2022, ISIS militants claimed responsibility for a deadly attack on the Russian Embassy in Kabul. ISIS also has fighters in Chechnya, where Islamic separatists have for years violently attempted to see off Russia’s iron-fisted rule. Playbook’s own Zoya Sheftalovich and Seb Starcevic have a write-up of Putin’s address.

 

Alert and alarmed: Meanwhile, Western security services are treating the renewed threat from ISIS with utmost seriousness. In France, President Emmanuel Macron’s government raised the threat alert to its highest level, citing planned attacks by the group.

 

It’s a pattern: Macron’s move follows a series of thwarted plots in several European countries. Last Friday, German authorities arrested two ISIS sympathizers suspected of planning an attack on Sweden’s parliament. Earlier this month, Belgian police netted four young ISIS admirers suspected of planning a terror attack on a concert hall. Last July, nine suspected ISIS plotters were arrested in Germany and the Netherlands, accused of planning attacks. In April 2023, Swedish police arrested five men on suspicion they were planning to carry out an ISIS-inspired attack. The list goes on and on.

 

Which begs the question: Is ISIS, the terror group whose sadistic atrocities shocked the world in the mid-2010s, back and ready to haunt Europe again?

 

Not exactly, argues Antonio Giustozzi, a London-based analyst who has authored several works about ISIS and its South-Central Asia division, Islamic State-Khorasan (which is particularly active in Afghanistan).

 

It’s more that ISIS never went away. “People are surprised because they think ISIS is finished,” said Giustozzi. “But they kept an underground presence in Iraq and Syria and of course in Afghanistan.”

 

Not-so-new kids on the block: ISIS-Khorasan, or ISIS-K, gained global notoriety in 2021 as the group behind a series of bombings linked to the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan. More virulent than the Afghan Taliban, whom they consider enemies, ISIS-K is the group cited by U.S. authorities when they tried to warn Russia about an imminent attack on Moscow earlier this month.

 

But don’t get it twisted: ISIS-K is just the designation for ISIS operating in the “Khorasan” region which, according to the group, covers Afghanistan, Iran, Turkmenistan and other Central Asian countries. As Giustozzi points out, the Moscow attack was claimed by plain old ISIS. “ISIS-K is nothing new — they were found about six months after the main ISIS.”

 

So what’s going on? Defeated on the battlefield in Syria and Iraq, seeing their bank accounts shut down in Turkey, ISIS is desperate to carry out attacks to prove it remains relevant and, crucially, get donations flowing again. “The number one aim of these attacks is fundraising,” said Giustozzi.

 

Except that this time, the would-be militants first in line to carry out the attacks aren’t Syrians, Iraqis or radicalized minorities from the West, but — in many of the recent plots — Central Asian Muslims who often face persecution in their home countries and are essentially stateless.

 

‘Nowhere to go’: “They are young migrants,” said Giustozzi. “Most of them were recruited from Russia to fight in Syria. They have been brutalized in war. Now they have nowhere to go. They are in camps where they are treated like shit. They don’t have a country or family. This process produces people who are essentially nihilists. They are willing to fight in a war that can’t be won.”

 

Seeking relevance: In the push for visibility and funds, ISIS is looking for targets. “They have been trying in Europe for the last year and a half. This could be Germany or the Netherlands but also France, where tensions between the government and the Muslim community are high,” Giustozzi warned.

 

Bottom line: ISIS is a far cry from its heyday, reduced to living underground and deprived of fundraising opportunities. But the terror organization hasn’t said its last word.

 

EU DIPLOMACY 

RESHUFFLE GIVES EXIT RAMP FOR MICHEL’S CHIEF OF STAFF AND OTHERS: The European Commission is this week set to sign off on its yearly rotation of top diplomats, with 43 new ambassadors and 11 deputy envoys to be named. This reshuffle was more complicated than others, officials told my colleagues Barbara Moens, Jacopo Barigazzi and Jakob Hanke Vela, as a number of top EU diplomats wanted to secure new jobs to avoid being linked to a politician who might be on the political scrapheap in a few months.

 

Examples please: Frédéric Bernard, Council President Charles Michel’s chief of staff, is poised to become the EU’s new ambassador to Canada, according to three senior EU officials. Simon Mordue, Michel’s top foreign policy adviser, is set to join the EEAS as deputy secretary-general, as Playbook previously reported. Martin Selmayr — the former chief civil servant of the Commission, is set to be the EU envoy to the Vatican, the Order of Malta and the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations.

 

Getting the balance right: The 2024 rotation was a difficult exercise, the senior EU officials said. They dismissed rumors that European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen — who has long had a difficult working relationship with Michel — was blocking future jobs for his current top aides.

 

The bigger challenge, the officials said, was finding the right balance between genders, geography and institutions. The top of the EEAS is already male-heavy, making Mordue’s nomination sensitive. Some 36 percent of the bloc’s ambassadors are currently female. The goal is for at least 40 percent of jobs at all levels of the diplomatic service at the end of EU High Representative Josep Borrell’s mandate to be filled by women. Read more by Barbara, Jacopo and Jakob here.

 

 

MACRON IN BRAZIL 

LOOKING FOR LOVE FROM LULA: Emmanuel Macron arrives today in the Amazonian metropolis of Belém, where he’ll meet Brazil’s President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, my colleague Giorgio Leali writes in to report from on the ground.

 

New page: Macron doesn’t have much in common with Lula, a metalworker who rose through the trade union movement and lost a finger in a machinery accident. The two also have very different positions on key files like the wars in Ukraine and Gaza.

 

First time, long time: But the Frenchman will be keen to make his trip work. It’s Macron’s first state visit to a South American country and the opportunity to relaunch bilateral relations after the far-right Jair Bolsonaro presidency, which the Elysée described as “a four-year eclipse.”

 

Forget Mercosur, let’s do business: Macron’s office made clear that the EU trade deal with Brazil and other South American countries (strongly opposed by France) isn’t on the trip’s agenda. But a Mercosur diplomat predicted the deal would be the “elephant in the room” and would inevitably come up in talks between the two leaders, even if they “agreed to disagree.”

 

Deliverables: Macron wants to instead focus on bilateral investment and further increase the French economic footprint in Brazil. He will also use the trip to show Lula that France can be an influential ally on international economic negotiations such as fairer international taxation, which is a top priority on Brazil’s G20 agenda, and the reform of international financial institutions.

 

Bem vindo a Belém: The two presidents will today travel by boat from Belém to a local community in the Amazon Rainforest, a setting that’s meant to showcase their shared preservation ambitions.

 

But Belém also has another story to tell: It epitomizes Brazil’s ambition to become a green superpower, and not only an export powerhouse. The tropical metropolis owes its fortune to the rubber boom in the 19th century, when rubber barons built an opera house inspired by Milan’s La Scala. But it then suffered from the ups and downs of global trade.

 

Ready for COP? Belém now wants to transform itself into a green capital and is set to host the COP30 climate conference next year. English-speakers are hard to find here, but hospitality workers say they’re taking classes to prepare for next year. Read more from Giorgio.

 

NOW READ THIS: Bolsonaro spent two nights in Hungary’s embassy in Brasília in February, presumably to hide from authorities who are investigating his alleged coup attempt, Giorgio also reports.

 

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UKRAINE 

WHAT KYIV REALLY WANTS: Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba isn’t mincing words when it comes to what his country needs most to fend off Russia’s relentless attacks: “Give us the damn Patriots,” he said, speaking to my colleague Jamie Dettmer. “If we had enough air defense systems, namely Patriots, we would be able to protect not only the lives of our people, but also our economy from destruction,” he added.

 

FREE TRADE DEADLOCK: Meanwhile, back in Brussels, the Belgian EU presidency is working on a declaration to assuage the concerns of countries that are on the brink of opposing the proposed extension of trade benefits for Ukraine for another year, an EU diplomat and a national official told my colleague Camille Gijs.

 

Switching sides: The top envoys had been expected on Monday morning to rubber stamp a compromise struck by the EU institutions last week to extend duty-free access for Ukrainian produce by another 12 months, but the vote was postponed to Wednesday due to last-minute opposition from several countries, led by France and Poland. Ireland and Austria are considering either abstaining or voting against the extension. Italy is planning to vote in favor, though it is still on the fence as it wants stricter limits for other products.

 

EUROPE’S BROADENING CONSENSUS ON UKRAINE: Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda is inside the room when fellow EU leaders meet. And he told Jacopo and Barbara that he’s sensing a growing agreement among them on the view that Russia must be defeated in Ukraine. “I think the understanding is broadening that we have to defeat Russia, because otherwise there will be a continuation of this tragic story,” he said.

 

No more calls to Volodya: “At least I don’t see leaders who want to call Putin to talk about the issues in Ukraine. We do not have any leader who still trusts Putin.” Full interview here.

 

IN OTHER NEWS

TODAY’S MUST READ — CAN ANYONE CONTROL AI? For the past year, a political fight has been raging around the world, mostly in the shadows, over how to control the world’s most dangerous technology. A transatlantic team of POLITICO’s top tech reporters consider whether the U.S., EU or U.K. will manage to devise a plan Western democracies can agree on — or if they’ll leave room for China to step in to set the global rulebook. Worth your time.

 

ROAD TO EU ELECTION: European Commissioner for Justice Didier Reynders is officially running to lead the Council of Europe, the Strasbourg-based human rights organization. Reynders will have to take a leave of absence from his Commission job during the selection process.

 

ICYMI — BULGARIA LATEST: Former EU Commissioner Mariya Gabriel on Monday withdrew her nomination to be the next Bulgarian prime minister. Details here.

 

ANTI-JEWISH HATE CRIME AT COLLEGE OF EUROPE: The door of a Jewish student at the College of Europe in Bruges was tagged with swastikas and other graffiti likening Judaism or Israel to Nazism on Saturday night, Eddy Wax reports. Rector Federica Mogherini wrote an email to all students, seen by Playbook, announcing an investigation. “Promoting hate is not and will never be tolerated within our walls,” Mogherini said.

 

NOW HEAR THIS: POLITICO’s Defense Editor Jan Cienski joined Power Play podcast host Anne McElvoy on a documentary called “The Reinvention of Poland,” for BBC Radio 4 and BBC Sounds. You can tune in later today here.