Brussels Playbook: Zelenskyy’s jet diplomacy —
Talking China — Translators vs. AI
BY NICHOLAS
VINOCUR
MAY 16,
2023 7:20 AM CET
Brussels
Playbook
By NICHOLAS
VINOCUR
with ZOYA
SHEFTALOVICH
DRIVING THE
DAY: FIGHTER JET DIPLOMACY
ZELENSKYY’S
BLITZ: As G7 leaders prepare to fly to Hiroshima, Japan, later this week,
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is making headway on a key matter for
Kyiv’s military planners: the delivery of Western fighter jets to shore up the
Ukrainian Air Force ahead of a much-touted counter-offensive.
Jets
coalition: “We can’t control the sky,” Zelenskyy said during an unexpected U.K.
stopover on Monday, during which he met with Prime Minister Rishi Sunak. “We
want to create this jets coalition, and I’m very positive about it. We spoke
about it [with Sunak] and I see that in the closest time, you will hear some, I
think, very important decisions — but we will have to work a little bit more on
it.”
On the
radar: The West has so far stopped short of delivering its jets to Ukraine. But
Sunak is planning to make the case in favor of the move at a Council of Europe
summit in Iceland today, and in talks with G7 leaders this weekend, my
colleagues Cristina Gallardo and Clea Caulcutt report.
Let’s talk
about it: Yuriy Sak, an adviser to Ukraine’s defense minister, said Zelenskyy
wants the issue of jets at the top of the agenda in Hiroshima and then again at
an annual NATO summit in July — adding he’d received “assurances” from Western
leaders that they would discuss the matter in coming days.
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Ukraine wants
40-50 F-16s in total, Sak said. Note: The U.K. doesn’t have F16s — but Belgium,
Denmark, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Greece and Romania do.
While Kyiv
waits for F16s, Ukrainians can take heart in the fact Western countries are
increasingly committing to training its current and future fighter pilots. The
U.K. has promised to do so, and speaking to TF1 following his own meeting with
Zelenskyy, French President Emmanuel Macron said his country had “opened a
door” to training pilots, along with “several other European countries.”
VDL, MICHEL
ON CHINA
HAPPY
TOGETHER: In a rare show of unity, the heads of the European Commission and
Council appeared side by side at a press conference Monday as they prepared to
fly to three international summits this week, Stuart Lau writes in to report.
(As well as today’s CoE meet-up in Iceland and the G7 in Japan, there’s an
EU-South Korea summit in Seoul coming up too.)
VDL talks
tough on Beijing: “Of course, we are competing with China. This means we have
to strengthen our own economic vibrancy,” Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen
said. Doubling down on the EU’s plan to step up export control under the
framework of economic security, she added: “We will protect a narrow set of
advanced technologies, of which we know that they will determine the
next-generation military advantage.”
A nod to
the host: In von der Leyen’s words: “Japan [has for long been] a frontrunner in
this area that has therefore made economic security, a central theme of their
G7 presidency … While we all have our independent relationships with China, I’m
confident that the G7 leaders will convene on a set of values for shared
principles.”
Linking
Asia with Europe: “We’ve seen attempts of economic coercion, for example, China
towards Lithuania; we’ve seen similar practices vis-a-vis Japan and Australia,”
von der Leyen said. “We are most vulnerable to coercion in general where
dependencies built up.” She emphasized the EU’s “unwavering commitment to peace
and stability” in the Taiwan Strait.
Taking a
dig at Xi: When asked by a Chinese state media journalist what the EU thought
about Beijing sending a special envoy to Kyiv this week, von der Leyen couldn’t
help taking a dig: “I think it is very good that — finally, after 14 months —
President Xi called President Zelenskyy,” she said, causing some journalists to
chuckle.
All aboard
the sanctioned express: Meanwhile, the FT reports that Russian Prime Minister
Mikhail Mishustin will lead a delegation chock full of sanctioned oligarchs and
politicians next week to attend the Russia-China Business Forum in Shanghai on
May 23.
Million-yuan
question: Von der Leyen confirmed reports that the EU was looking into targeting
third-country companies for assisting Russia’s war, when asked about the
presence of Chinese firms in a draft for the next package of EU sanctions.
“Regarding third countries that buy directly in the EU and then [are]
potentially delivering sanctioned goods to Russia,” she said, “we could ban
these goods from going to that third country if there’s clear evidence that
this is a circumvention of sanctions.”
Michel
chimes in: “I feel that… the member states are more and more convergent,”
Council chief Charles Michel said, pointing to three aspects: standing up for
values and interests, economic security, and addressing global challenges.
Which could also be read as a reversal for the EU’s partner-competitor-systemic
rival policy on China.
NOW READ
THIS: The last Council of Europe summit was held in Warsaw in 2005, when
leaders committed to “building one Europe without dividing lines.” At that
summit, Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov represented Russia — which was excluded
from the Council of Europe last year over its full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
In an opinion piece for POLITICO, Amnesty International’s Nils Muiznieks and
Rita Patricio write that unless the CoE learns from its failure to deal with
Russia’s long-standing contempt for its statutory obligations, any commitments
will ring hollow.
RUSSIA
SANCTIONS
DON’T HOLD
YOUR BREATH FOR SANCTIONS DEAL THIS WEEK: The discussions on the 11th sanctions
package against Russia will continue during today’s meeting of EU envoys, but
four diplomats said there’s no light at the end of the tunnel just yet.
Several
countries, including heavyweight Germany, are not yet convinced about the
details of the EU’s radical proposal to tackle circumvention through slapping
sanctions on third countries, for example in Central Asia. Berlin would rather
only list companies instead of entire countries, but not everyone believes this
is the most efficient solution, report Barbara Moens and Jakob Hanke Vela.
Shipping
forecast: The prospects for a major new crackdown on the so-called shadow fleet
of vessels carrying Russian crude around the world are looking increasingly
downcast as a storm brews over how plans to bar suspected vessels from European
ports would work, my colleague Gabriel Gavin writes in to report.
The
problem: “How are you going to implement it?” one diplomat from a major
maritime member country asked. “Identifying which vessels are involved is also
very difficult. There are instances where ships can switch off [their tracking
devices]; so you can’t automatically say if they do that, they’re transporting
Russian crude.”
What’s
next? EU diplomats stressed a deal is unlikely before this week’s G7 summit or
even before the Foreign Affairs Council next week, and a new draft text is said
to be in the works.
TIME FOR AN
AWKWARD CONVERSATION WITH INDIA? European Commission officials are meeting with
senior Indian ministers today for their first-ever Trade and Technology
Council, with EU High Representative Josep Borrell set to meet Foreign Minister
Subrahmanyam Jaishankar. Ahead of that, Borrell warned in an FT interview: “If
diesel or gasoline is entering Europe … coming from India and being produced
with Russian oil, that is certainly a circumvention of sanctions and member
states have to take measures.” Borrell said he would raise the issue with
Jaishankar.
WHO QUITS
MOSCOW: It took a year, but European countries have succeeded in their push for
the World Health Organization to relocate a key office away from Moscow.
Ashleigh Furlong has more.
EUROPEAN
COMMISSION
GABRIEL’S
CABINET ‘DISMANTLED’: The EU executive is down one commissioner after Mariya
Gabriel, in charge of the research portfolio, stepped down on Monday to try to
form a government in her country Bulgaria.
Hold that
job ad: With her portfolio now to be overseen by Vice President Margrethe
Vestager, Gabriel’s cabinet in Brussels has been effectively dismantled, my
colleague Pieter Haeck writes in to report. Some staffers will return to
previous posts in other departments, but for those on temporary contracts, this
could be the end of the road.
EU chatter:
Though she is barely out the door, the guessing game on Gabriel’s potential
replacement has already begun. Attention is turning to another prominent
Bulgarian from former Prime Minister Boyko Borissov’s GERB party — Eva Maydell.
“Eva has always been a strong leader on digital topics,” Czech lawmaker Dita
Charanzová wrote to Playbook. “While I will be sorry to see Commissioner
Gabriel go, I think Eva has all the qualities to fill her shoes in Brussels.”
Bottom
line: It may be a few beats before anyone fills those shoes. In order to name a
replacement, Bulgaria needs a government. Gabriel will be trying to form one —
and picking her own successor in Brussels is unlikely to be a top priority in
coming weeks.
Back in
Bulgaria, Gabriel stood behind Borissov on Monday as he dismissed allegations
made against him by his former friend, the country’s prosecutor general, Ivan
Geshev, Antoaneta Roussi writes in to report.
Earlier on
Monday, in a scene that would not be out of place in a gangster film, Geshev
held a press conference at which he tore up a resignation letter which he
claimed had been forced upon him, alongside a threat to publish video material
if he failed to comply. “There was a reference that I was alone on a cliff and
up there the wind was strong,” Geshev said, adding: “I’m not afraid.”
At a
theater near you: This comes about two weeks after Geshev escaped an alleged
assassination attempt that opposition politicians claim was likely staged,
given a lack of evidence it occured. Geshev and Borissov — once allies — are
now at odds, with Geshev promising to unveil a scandal about the ex-PM. Get
your popcorn out.
TURKEY’S
KINGMAKER
NATIONALIST
HOLDS CARDS IN TURKEY RUNOFF: Turkey’s long-ruling president, Recep Tayyip
Erdoğan, heads to a runoff vote on May 28 against rival Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, who
came up short in the first round ballot over the weekend despite pre-election
polls showing him in the lead.
But all
isn’t said and done. As my colleagues Elçin Poyrazlar and Christian Oliver
report from Istanbul, there is still hope in Kılıçdaroğlu’s camp that he could
gain enough votes between rounds from supporters of Sinan Oğan, a nationalist
who polled around 5 percent in the first round, to put him over the top on May
28.
Glimmer:
That would suppose almost the entirety of Oğan’s backers switch to Kılıçdaroğlu
— a long shot.
NOW READ
THIS: Erdoğan’s government ordered Twitter to block the accounts of roughly a
dozen opposition figures — prompting an outcry against owner Elon Musk for
complying with the order. Read chief tech correspondent Mark Scott on how the
Turkish leader’s AKP party has tightened its grip on social media — including
by copying Europe’s rules against hate speech and misinformation and wielding
them against opponents.
IN OTHER
NEWS
WILL AI
KILL THE EU’S TRANSLATORS? Automation is creeping into the Brussels bubble —
and translators are among its first victims, report my colleagues Gregorio
Sorgi and Federica Di Sario in this deep dive on how AI changed the jobs of the
EU’s over 2,000 translators.
Shrinkage:
High-tech machines that can run through Eurocratic jargon at record speed have
replaced hundreds of linguists in the EU bubble. The Commission’s dedicated
unit shrunk by 20 percent over the last decade.
But not all
is gloomy: Translators insist the human element remains essential. “Machine
translation helps translators but cannot replace them. There is always a need
for human expert validation,” said Spyridon Pilos, an ex-Commission official
who oversaw the introduction of translation engines in 2013.
JOUROVÁ
WARNS AGAINST CZECH NEWSPAPER TAX: European Commission Vice President Věra
Jourová has spoken out against a Czech government proposal that would increase
VAT on newspapers to 21 percent from 10 percent. That spike “could be
devastating for regional and local newspapers,” many of which are already
“struggling to survive,” Jourová, who hails from the Czech Republic herself,
told Playbook’s Ketrin Jochecová.
Background:
The Czech government introduced an austerity package last week aiming to tackle
a budget deficit. Under the proposals, magazines would be subject to a 12
percent tax rate, and books would be exempted completely. The proposal “looks
like an attempt to kill newspaper publishing,” said the Czech Publishers’
Association Chairwoman Libuše Šmuclerová.
Bad news
for stag dos: If the proposal is adopted, food and housing will benefit from
lower VAT, but alcohol, tobacco, gambling — and newspapers and bicycles — will
face a significant increase in tax. Plus, draught beer will be slapped with a
big tax hike — which could hit the country’s reputation as the land of cheap
beer.
INTRA-EU
CALLS: Internal Market Commissioner Thierry Breton is “committed to make sure
that intra-EU communications are affordable for all European citizens,”
according to a letter he sent to MEPs, which Ketrin has seen. Lawmakers have
urged him to extend the cap on the cost of calls and texts between EU
countries, which is set to expire on May 14, 2024.
Disclaimer:
We’re not talking about roaming — which is used when you are calling from
abroad. “I am happy that Commissioner Breton understands that it would be a
mistake to let the limits on Intra-EU calls and SMSs expire,” said Parliament
Vice President Dita Charanzová.
Public
impact: A new Eurobarometer survey published Monday shows that 31 percent of
Europeans have made more or longer mobile calls to another EU country since the
introduction of the price cap in May 2019. According to the data, Maltese
residents benefited most from the price cap (81 percent), followed by Irish (45
percent), Croatians (43 percent) and Poles (40 percent).
NEW JOB FOR
ITALY’S DI MAIO: The Council has appointed Luigi Di Maio, former Italian
foreign minister, as the EU special representative for the Gulf region, taking
up his duties June 1. Announcement here.
ASSAD BACK
IN THE ROOM: The United Arab Emirates invited Syrian President Bashar al-Assad
to attend this year’s United Nations climate summit, Zia Weise reports.
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