As Trump’s star wanes, another rises: could Ron
DeSantis be the new Maga bearer?
With the January 6 hearings chipping away at the
former president’s image, the Republican Florida governor is quietly working to
turn the tide in his favor
David Smith
David Smith
in Sarasota, Florida
@smithinamerica
Sun 3 Jul
2022 07.00 BST
He was the
most powerful man in the world, the possessor of the nuclear codes. Yet he
behaved like a deranged manchild who threw temper tantrums and food against the
wall.
That was
the tragicomic story told to America last Tuesday at a congressional hearing
that had even seasoned Donald Trump watchers lifting their jaws off the floor
and speculating that his political career might finally be over.
In two
seismic hours in Washington, Cassidy Hutchinson, a 25-year-old former White
House aide, told the panel investigating the January 6 attack on the US Capitol
that the former president had effectively gone haywire.
She
described how Trump knew a mob of his supporters had armed itself with rifles,
yet he asked for metal detectors to be removed. She also recounted how his
desire to lead them to the Capitol caused a physical altercation with the
Secret Service, and how in a fit of rage he threw his lunch against a White
House wall, staining it with tomato ketchup.
Trump, who
once called himself “a very stable genius”, vehemently denied the allegations
but the political damage was done. Infighting and plotting engulfed a
Republican party that had hoped the House of Representatives’ committee
hearings would pass as a non-event.
Instead
they have exceeded all expectations and could prove terminal to Trump’s
ambition of regaining the presidency in 2024 if Republican leaders, donors and
voters run out of patience and decide to move on.
“Former
White House aide Cassidy Hutchinson’s Tuesday testimony ought to ring the death
knell for former President Donald Trump’s political career,” said an editorial
in the Washington Examiner, a conservative news website. “Trump is unfit to be
anywhere near power ever again.”
The column
concluded: “Trump is a disgrace. Republicans have far better options to lead
the party in 2024. No one should think otherwise, much less support him, ever
again.”
Seemingly
aware of his growing political vulnerability, Trump is reportedly considering
announcing another run for the White House sooner than expected. He has teased
the prospect at recent rallies and, according to the New York Times, told
advisers that he might declare his candidacy on social media without warning
even his own team.
Such a move
could have the added impetus of heading off a new star rising in the Republican
firmament. Ron DeSantis, the pugnacious governor of Florida, is widely seen as
his heir apparent and biggest rival for the Republican presidential nomination
in two years’ time. At 43, DeSantis is more than three decades younger and is
free of Trump’s January 6 toxicity.
Speaking
from Tallahassee, longtime Republican strategist Rick Wilson of Florida said:
“I’ve picked up the same rumors that everybody else is hearing that Ron
DeSantis’s people are practically picking out curtains in the White House after
Tuesday.
The big question for Republicans moving forward is: do
they want to carry this baggage of Trump into 2024
Larry Jacobs
“Apparently
they feel like this was a phenomenal day for them, that it was a great
breakdown of Trump’s malfeasance and they didn’t have to bring the attack – it
was brought by one of his former loyalists. If you look at it in terms of the
2024 nomination process, it was a consequential day.”
Wilson,
author of Everything Trump Touches Dies, cautioned that the twice impeached
former president has been written off countless times before only to bounce
back. But Trump has not faced a challenger like DeSantis.
“DeSantis
has been very carefully building out a presidential campaign for 2024 to
primary Donald Trump, raising money, building relationships, going out there
and quietly whispering: ‘He’s crazy, I’m not, I’m younger, I’m smarter, I’m
thinner, I’m better looking. I can deliver more for you than the crazy old
orange guy,’” Wilson said.
DeSantis
certainly has political buzz. Ed Rollins, another Republican strategist, also
believes Trump could be done, and has launched a group called Ready for Ron to
gather details of DeSantis supporters ahead of an expected presidential bid.
An opinion
poll released last week in the state of New Hampshire, traditionally the site
of the first presidential primary, showed DeSantis in a statistical tie with
Trump among likely Republican voters.
The
University of New Hampshire poll found 39% supported DeSantis, with 37% backing
Trump – a big swing from October, when Trump had double the support DeSantis
did. Former vice-president Mike Pence, who is exploring a 2024 campaign after
breaking with Trump post the Capitol insurrection, was in a distant third at
9%.
There have
been other clues that Trump’s hold on Republican voters is not what it was. He
has seen mixed results for his most high-profile endorsements in key states
during this year’s midterm elections, in which DeSantis is seeking re-election
as Florida governor.
DeSantis
has proved himself a financial powerhouse, raising more than $120m since
winning office in 2018. Recent financial disclosures showed his political
accounts had over $110m in cash in mid-June.
Trump’s
Save America group, meanwhile, had just over $100m in cash at the end of May.
A lot of people want to put a tombstone on the grave
but Donald Trump is still above ground
Michael Steele
Republican
donor Dan Eberhart told the Reuters news agency that three-quarters of roughly
150 fellow donors with whom he regularly interacts backed Trump six months ago,
with a quarter going for DeSantis. But now the balance has shifted and about
two-thirds want DeSantis as the 2024 standard bearer.
Eberhart
was quoted as saying: “The donor class is ready for something new. And DeSantis
feels more fresh and more calibrated than Trump. He’s easier to defend, he’s
less likely to embarrass and he’s got the momentum.”
And the
January 6 hearings are far from over. The six sessions so far have pointed the
finger firmly at Trump as the unhinged architect of a failed coup who pushed
conspiracy theories about voter fraud he knew to be false and was willing to
let his supporters hang his own vice-president.
A survey
from the Associated Press-Norc Center for Public Affairs Research found that
48% of American adults said Trump should be charged with a crime for his role. The
crisply presented hearings would have been enough to bury any other politician
for good.
Political
scientist Bill Galston, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution thinktank
in Washington, said: “If the testimony stands as delivered, many Republicans
will begin to ask themselves whether it wouldn’t be preferable to find a
candidate with Mr Trump’s views but not his vices.
“And, of
course, there is such a candidate waiting in the wings. Tuesday’s hearing was a
‘Ron DeSantis for president’ rally because it underscored the risks of sticking
with Mr Trump for a third consecutive presidential election.”
Galston, a
former senior policy adviser to President Bill Clinton, described DeSantis as
“the distilled essence of what the post-Reagan Republican party has become. In
addition, it’s clear to the Republican base that, like Trump, he’s a fighter.
Like Trump, he is not at all deterred by liberal criticism.”
If the testimony stands as delivered, many Republicans
will begin to ask themselves whether it wouldn’t be preferable to find a
candidate with Mr Trump’s views but not his vices
Bill Galston
Some
believe the cumulative effect of the January 6 hearings could be enough to
persuade many in the “Make America Great Again” base that, even while they
remain devoted fans of Trump, he is no longer the pragmatic choice to oust
Democrat Joe Biden from the Oval Office.
“The big
question for Republicans moving forward is: do they want to carry this baggage
of Trump into 2024?” said Larry Jacobs, the director of the Center for the
Study of Politics and Governance at the University of Minnesota.
“When you’re
battling to win over independent voters and when you’re going to be handed a
platform that could very well present a referendum on the insider party, the
Democrats, it doesn’t make sense even for a lot of Republican Trump supporters.
Trump and his influence and his future prospects are fading fast.”
But the
populist-nationalism that the ex-president branded “America first” does look
set to survive him, Jacobs added.
“In the
primaries, there’s going to be a battle of who can carry Trumpism without Trump
and that’s going to be ethnic nationalism, attacks on the liberal cultural tilt
of this moment,” Jacobs said. “You go to a Trump rally, a lot of those lines
are going to be evident.”
For
Democrats, it may be a case of being careful about what you wish for. DeSantis
was a relatively obscure congressman when Trump endorsed him for Florida
governor in 2018 and has proven a worthy disciple, sparring with everyone from
journalists to Disney to what he calls the “woke left”.
After the
coronavirus pandemic took hold in 2020, he relaxed restrictions on businesses
and schools in defiance of federal guidelines and overruled local officials who
sought to preserve mask mandates.
DeSantis
has also enacted numerous conservative bills with the help of Florida’s
Republican-controlled legislature, including an election “police force”
dedicated to investigating alleged voter fraud, new voting limits and banning
teachers from discussing gender identity with young children – which critics
decry as the “don’t say gay” law.
He also
effectively commandeered the redistricting process from Florida’s state
legislature, vetoing their congressional map and substituting his own proposal
that eliminated two majority-Black districts while delivering four additional
seats to Republicans.
Some fear
that, as president, DeSantis would represent Trump 2.0 – a refined, purified
version without the incompetence, more efficient and ruthless and able to get
things done.
Wilson, the
longtime Republican consultant and Trump critic from Florida, commented: “Ron
DeSantis in Florida has accumulated enormous power. He has taken power away
from the legislature. He is attempting to take power away from independent
colleges and universities and to literally replace governance at every
institution in Florida from top to bottom with the governor’s office.
“I grew up
in a time where Republicans thought a hyper powerful executive was not a great
thing but Ron DeSantis has a very different opinion of executive power and he,
as president, would engage in its use at a scale that would be dangerous for
the country at a lot of levels.”
The first
nominating contests for the 2024 election are more than 18 months away, and the
long term impact of the January 6 hearings remains uncertain. Lou Marin,
executive vice-president of the Florida Republican Assembly, does not think
they will change minds. “People who are paying attention realize that it’s a
kangaroo court,” he said. “They need to move on and start doing their job
instead of wasting taxpayer dollars.”
DeSantis
will also be wary of peaking too early and keenly aware that Trump, who
famously boasted that he could shoot someone and not lose any voters, remains
his party’s most popular figure. A Harvard Caps-Harris Poll this week found 56%
of Republican voters said they would back the former president – well ahead of
DeSantis on 16%.
Ron DeSantis in Florida has accumulated enormous power
Former
Republican National Committee chairman Michael Steele said: “A lot of people
want to put a tombstone on the grave but Donald Trump is still above ground.
He’s still walking the earth and has a lot of political clout with a lot more
people inside the party than folks may want to admit.
“Those
bridges are in front of us. We haven’t come to them yet to see exactly what
these extra revelations will now present in terms of further chiseling away
Donald Trump’s hold on the party.”
Some
Democrats argue that DeSantis would be preferable because, unlike Trump, he
would not threaten the foundations of America’s constitutional democracy.
But Steele
warned: “Who’s the better thief, the one who breaks the window to get into your
house or the one who’s craftily picked the lock? DeSantis knows how not
to trip the alarm system.”
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