Macron could lose absolute majority in
parliament, poll finds
Alliance backing the French president might not obtain
the 289 seats needed for an absolute majority.
BY JULES
DARMANIN
June 8,
2022 12:50 pm
PARIS —
French President Emmanuel Macron could have a hard time eking out an absolute
majority in parliament in the upcoming legislative elections as support for
rival left-wing groups edges up, according to fresh polls.
Parliamentary
elections — the upcoming one is slated for June 12 and 19 — are typically
difficult to predict because they consist of 577 distinct local races. But an
Ifop poll published Tuesday has Macron’s camp worried, as it projects them
winning 250 to 290 seats, with the majority threshold at 289. Even worse, the
numbers have been trending down since late May, when Ifop had the president’s
allies landing between 275 and 310 seats.
Other
polling firms show the president’s camp faring better. POLITICO’s Poll of Polls
projects a likely range of 275 to 318 seats, but the trend here is also
pointing downward over the past weeks.
A scenario
in which the presidential camp remains the biggest group in parliament but gets
less than 289 seats could potentially gridlock the National Assembly, as it
would lack a majority with a clear agenda.
On
Wednesday morning on France Inter, Olivier Véran, the newly appointed minister
delegate for relations with parliament, begged voters to “not add an
institutional crisis by having a country which would not be governable
anymore,” even though he said he remained confident about the election.
Unlike in
2017, when Macron’s party, LREM, and its ally Mouvement Démocrate obtained 356
seats, the reelected president is facing a united front on the left. The New
Popular, Environmental and Social Union (NUPES), an ad hoc alliance of
left-wing parties led by former presidential candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon,
could get from 190 to 235 seats, Ifop projects. The estimate is above the Poll
of Polls average of seat projections which has NUPES at 158 to 196 seats.
Mélenchon
is also vying to get a majority, asking voters to “elect him prime minister,”
an outcome that appears highly unlikely.
For more
polling data from across Europe visit POLITICO Poll of Polls.
Voting in
the French parliamentary election is already underway. Eleven of the 577 seats
in the National Assembly are decided on by French citizens living abroad, who
cast their first-round vote on June 5. Macron’s candidates came out on top in
most of the overseas constituencies, which also voted en masse to reelect the
centrist in the presidential election in April.
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