The graybeards running the world’s climate talks
As talks heat up, governments tap grizzled veterans to
push their national interests.
The search
for a collective global step forward has brought the graybeards back to the
table | Illustration by Nicolás Ortega for POLITICOBY KARL MATHIESEN, ZACK
COLMAN, KALINA
OROSCHAKOFF
AND RYAN HEATH
March 18,
2021 2:02 pm
https://www.politico.eu/article/climate-talks-old-boys-club-john-kerry-us-eu-china/
Climate’s
old men’s club is back.
Around the
table next Tuesday — when China hosts the EU, the U.S. and other major
economies via video link for one of the most important climate discussions of
the year — will be a bunch of familiar, and grizzled, faces.
U.S.
climate envoy John Kerry, 77, has returned from running an NGO in exile during
the four turbulent years of the Trump administration to head international
climate policy for the world's largest economy and its second-biggest emitter.
China's Xie Zhenhua, 71, returned to the fore of climate policy for the world's
top emitter after spending two years running China’s leading climate policy lab
at Tsinghua University.
Other
revenants at the top table of climate diplomacy (although not expected to join
Tuesday's call) include India's Prakash Javadekar, 70, who is back as
environment minister of the fourth-highest greenhouse gas emitter after a spell
as education minister. Media billionaire Michael Bloomberg, 79, and 55-year-old
former Bank of England Governor Mark Carney are both now special U.N. envoys
for climate ambition and finance.
The new kid
on the block is the EU's Executive Vice President Frans Timmermans, a vernal 59
— although he too has a long track record in the upper circles of global
affairs.
The return
to center stage of so many climate veterans reflects a new energy in the fight
against climate change, and shows that the issue is of key national interest.
Bolstered
by growing scientific consensus that the 2015 Paris Agreement will not be
enough to avert disaster — and spurred by the election of Joe Biden, 78, as
U.S. president — climate diplomacy has taken on new urgency as countries gear
up to push for stricter environmental measures, or to try to weasel out of
them, ahead of November's COP26 summit in Glasgow.
Their
re-elevation means it falls to this group of mostly aged men to deliver a
radical step forward from the deal many of them personally engineered in the
French capital six years ago. Some question whether that makes them the best
people for the job, or a caste that failed to deliver enough action in the
past.
Katie Eder,
executive director of U.S. youth climate group Future Coalition, was excited to
see the return of credible climate leaders after the Trump presidency. But she
has concerns: “If we’re going to find the solutions that are going to match the
scale and urgency of the climate crisis, we need to think differently. The
people who need to be part of the conversation need to represent that. They
need to be younger and more diverse.”
The array
of familiar faces provoked a mixture of resignation, disappointment and
frustration during a recent private call held between senior women in global
leadership roles. “It’s old wine in old bottles,” said one.
A sense of
urgency
Much has
changed geopolitically, socially and with respect to scientific urgency since
the group of elder statesmen last dominated the most crucial roles in steering
the planet away from catastrophe.
“You could
make the case they are well-positioned to make that pivot,” said Paul Bodnar,
who worked on international climate efforts at the White House during the Obama
administration and in Kerry’s State Department. “Or you could make the case
that it’s easy to pick up where you left off.”
The
evidence of a looming catastrophe is much sharper than it was in Paris in 2015.
That's forced a radical shift in stance.
“Glasgow is
the last best opportunity that we have, the best hope that the world will come
together and build on Paris,” Kerry said during a visit to Brussels last week.
“Paris does not, alone, get the job done.”
But in the
French capital in 2015, Kerry and the U.S. administration were far less
ambitious than the policies he advocates today.
During the
first week of the Paris negotiations, Kerry skipped out for a quick touch down
in Kosovo where he championed a (now abandoned) plan for a U.S. company to
build a new coal plant. Today, coal is considered a dead-end by the U.S. and
Biden has ruled out overseas finance for most fossil fuels.
In Paris,
Kerry’s officials played a clever diplomatic game to break up a coalition of
developing countries under China's leadership. They backed an unexpected
addition to the language of the agreement: an ambition to keep global
temperatures from rising more than 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial
levels that would sit alongside an absolute cap of “well below” 2 degrees.
This was a
critical ask for a group of small island states; scientists were warning that
anything over 1.5 degrees meant sea level rise, coral death and permanent
exile. They were forcefully backed by the European Union.
But behind
the scenes Kerry’s lieutenants — chief climate envoy Todd Stern and his deputy Jonathan
Pershing — made it absolutely clear to the world’s vulnerable nations that
while Washington was happy to include the 1.5-degree goal, it did not consider
it realistic.
“Every now
and then we used to have chats and casual conversations,” said Amjad Abdulla, a
diplomat from the Maldives with more than 20 years of climate-talks experience
who led the small-island negotiating bloc in Paris.
In one of
those chats, Abdulla said, Stern and Pershing told him that stopping warming at
1.5 degrees — an existential number for Abdulla's homeland — “would be too
difficult.” (Stern said it was “entirely possible” he’d expressed that view.)
New target
On the
other side of the Paris negotiating table, China's Xie and India's Javadekar
were pushing hard for their countries to be subject to weaker rules as a
developing countries. Javadekar was “hard-line,” said one European diplomat who
negotiated with him.
The
inclusion of the 1.5-degree target helped Kerry win the Paris round. It split
the most vulnerable countries away from China’s developing country group,
ultimately landing a deal with a common set of rules for the biggest polluters
with concessions to the small and poor (Xie would later work to unpick this
during talks in 2017 and 2018).
“It was a
tactical decision to put 1.5 in,” said Nick Mabey, CEO of the E3G think tank.
In Abdulla’s view, Kerry’s diplomats assumed it was a gift with no cost. “They
never thought that they would be obliged to [meet the target],” he said.
“I wouldn't
characterize it like that,” Stern said. “We thought it was a very, very
difficult target. But … as the thing you're shooting for, it was a good idea.”
That
tactical U.S. victory has now taken on an entirely new meaning. In 2018, a
scientific report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change showed a
2-degree rise in temperature would be catastrophic, while 1.5 degrees was a
little more doable than previously thought.
The report
added another note to the chorus reassessing the targets agreed in Paris.
In the
years since, a new brand of political activism has emerged, demanding exactly
the kind of radical action Kerry’s diplomats had dismissed in 2015. With
Swedish youth activist Greta Thunberg, the Fridays for Future movement and the
U.S. Sunrise Movement, a new generation has taken to the streets to protest.
Many of them appealed to world leaders to remember they were also parents and
(in the case of many of the climate negotiators) grandparents.
On the
surface, that message appears to have sunk in. Timmermans rarely misses a
chance to invoke "a climate our children and grandchildren can live
in." On Tuesday, Kerry told an online conference that 1.5 degrees was the
only target "available to us."
The U.S.
and EU are promising to act by bringing in net-zero targets for 2050 (India is
reportedly also considering this goal), or in China's case, 2060. But there is
a huge diplomatic effort underway to raise those goals ahead of COP26 in
Glasgow.
Tuesday’s
ministerial meeting is the last major summit the U.S. and China will attend
before Washington announces its new 2030 emissions goal in April. The U.S. and
EU are pushing China hard to peak its emissions by 2025, but earlier this month
Beijing signaled it has no intention of doing so.
The mega
European Green Deal policy package will be rolled out through 2021, including
Brussels' threat to raise a carbon border tax if others don't step up. India is
being lobbied to raise its 2030 goals and set a date for emissions to be
net-zero. It is widely hoped that if these big economies move, the rest of the
G20 countries that account for around 80 percent of emissions will follow.
Back in the
saddle
That search
for a collective global step forward has brought the graybeards back to the
table to see if they can build on what they accomplished in Paris.
Last week,
Kerry and Timmermans dined together at the European Commission in Brussels.
(The pair are old friends who, as foreign ministers of the U.S. and
Netherlands, first bonded over pro cycling and the Boston Red Sox while working
on a nuclear security summit in the early 2010s.) Xie chatted online with
Timmermans this week. Diplomats in Europe see the key to negotiating climate
with India as reaching beyond Javadekar to his boss Narendra Modi, as Obama did
in 2015.
Since
taking over China’s climate diplomacy in 2007, Xie, a career politician, had
slowly turned his country from a belligerent defender of its right to develop
its economy into a prickly partner in quelling emissions. Despite some early
hiccups — “those Chinese fuckers are trying to rat-fuck us,” was Australian
Prime Minister Kevin Rudd’s assessment of Xie's approach to the disastrous 2009
Copenhagen climate talks — Xie has developed lasting bonds with many of his
fiercest adversaries — Rudd included.
Kerry and
Xie have been at it for more than 20 years. Last month Kerry called his Chinese
counterpart a “believer.”
“We know
each other and have respect for, I think, each other’s efforts thus far,” the
U.S. envoy said. The pair have “been in touch,” according to the State
Department.
Their
return brings a mixture of hope and apprehension for the climate movement.
Success will hinge on their relationships and experience but also their
willingness to break from the rusted-on positions they have maintained for
years.
Their
participation is "a nice signal of the willingness to reach
agreements," said Spain’s Deputy Prime Minister Teresa Ribera, 51, herself
a climate affairs veteran. "At the same time, it is also true that it's
going to be very important to show the capacity to look forward."
Ribera said
it was crucial that they hire staff who could bring new ideas. “Otherwise we
risk getting trapped in a club of new, old friends that becomes the same people
talking to the same people,” she said.
'A bunch of
old white men'
Clearly,
there is a representation issue — and many younger or female activists have
been happy to point it out.
Like all of
climate’s old men, Kerry is freighted with the history and contradictions of
power. He uses private jets — although the State Department qualified that was
only on “rare occasions” as a private citizen. “If you offset your carbon, it’s
the only choice for somebody like me who is traveling the world to win this
battle,” he told Icelandic media in 2019 after flying to Reykjavik to attend a
summit where he received a climate leadership award.
This makes
it hard for young people, women and really anyone who flies coach to see
themselves represented in the issue that will define much of the next century.
“The climate crisis is at the point where we need people who are directly
affected" in leadership roles, said youth activist Eder.
Most
crucially, say activists, this is the generation that could have acted sooner.
Some climate activists ask whether the choices would be so hard if their
positions were filled by younger people? Open, egalitarian societies that
elected women leaders did better managing the COVID-19 crisis. Would that work
for the climate crisis? We aren't going to find out this year.
“These
elder statesmen are at the center of global climate negotiations [because] they
reflect the structures in our society," said Shuo Peskoe-Yang, a climate activist
who has worked with environmental groups Climate Mobilization and Corporate
Accountability. "That’s why it’s a bunch of old white men, to be honest.
"We
need to change the power structure,” he added. “These guys are generally good
and we’ve been basically gaslit these last four years, so any morsel of hope is
fantastic. But to be frank, we need a lot more ambition than these people are
offering.”
Kerry’s
spokesperson said the veteran envoy believes there was a “tragic irony in the
fact that his generation has not yet solved a generational issue.” Elevating
“young and diverse voices” is “certainly on his mind,” but Kerry “also
understands the value of putting to use his decades of diplomatic relationships
at the highest levels to help address the climate crisis, while the world still
has time.”
Bloomberg
and Carney get even less sympathy from the activist community. When the former
mayor of New York is in a room, so too is the collected GDP of a few dozen of
the world’s most vulnerable countries. Yet despite a long history of climate
activism, it raised eyebrows when U.N. boss António Guterres gave a plum U.N.
job to the man who had spent millions bankrolling the U.N.'s climate body.
Many youth
activists are also deeply skeptical of capitalist, market-based institutions
and policies, claiming those ideas have contributed to the runaway emissions
threatening the planet.
Carney
kicked that hornet’s nest last month when he suggested Brookfield, the $600
billion asset management firm he works for, had a net-zero emissions portfolio.
In reality it holds shares in various high-carbon ventures (a fact faithfully
pointed out by reporters who work for his U.N. colleague Bloomberg).
National
interests
Others,
however, see such players as interlocutors — people of the private sector who
are genuinely serious about climate change and can persuade banks, companies
and regulators to do the same.
“These guys
are the sort of the kings of capital, but Carney has been leading the charge of
getting global financial institutions to wake up and smell the coffee,” said
Sam Ricketts, co-founder of environmental group Evergreen Action, formed as an
offshoot of Washington state Governor Jay Inslee’s presidential campaign.
This
contest between experience and representation masks the reality that was so
apparent in Paris: Beneath the fuzzy gauze of global cooperation, climate
change politics is a hardcore contest of national interests. Xie, Kerry,
Timmermans and Javadekar have been chosen because they are considered their
countries' most potent agents.
“Kerry and
Xie are two towering figures in global climate affairs,” said Li Shuo, a policy
expert with Greenpeace in China. “They have been champions for climate action
and multilateralism. At the same time, they both are patriots ... How should
they balance their deep commitment to climate action and their respective
national interests?”
Success
this year requires a joint movement from the largest economies — not only on
emissions, but on supporting developing countries with enough cash to cope with
climate impacts and clean up their industry. It’s the same fight these men (and
others like them) have been waging against each other for decades.
But the
distance between their old positions and demands of the moment has grown.
Responding
to the changing political, scientific and economic calculus will be "the
ultimate test of their careers," said Li. "Accelerating domestic
action while making sure their countries move toward the same direction will be
the most important legacy they leave for their countries and the rest of the
world.”
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