MITCH’S BIG DECISION

 

MITCH’S BIG DECISION — If one were to conduct a poll of congressional reporters and Capitol Hill denizens, we’d guess at least 90% would say there’s no way Senate Minority Leader MITCH MCCONNELL will ever vote to convict DONALD TRUMP.

https://www.politico.com/newsletters/playbook/2021/02/12/could-mcconnell-surprise-us-all-491739

 

But indulge us for a moment to play out the extremely unlikely scenario that he does.

 

McConnell clearly sees Trump as a danger to the Republican Party. The two haven’t spoken since December, and McConnell has accused Trump of “provoking” the Capitol siege. McConnell is also 78, and there’s chatter already underway about whether he’ll retire in 2026 rather than face reelection at age 84.

 

So, could he be viewing this impeachment vote as a legacy-defining moment?

 

Consider this about the man Democrats deride as the ultimate power-hungry, calculating pol: Among his idols are HENRY CLAY, the famous Kentucky senator known as the “Great Compromiser” for trying to keep the Union together before the Civil War. In his memoir, “The Long Game,” McConnell also fondly recalls how his one-time boss, Sen. JOHN SHERMAN COOPER, took a politically unpopular stand on civil rights.

 

“There are times you follow, and times when you lead,” Cooper told the 20-something McConnell, then a Senate staffer, when he inquired about how Cooper squared his support for the Civil Rights Act with stacks of angry letters from pro-segregation constituents. McConnell called it a lesson he’d “never forget”: that “a true leader is one who doesn’t take a poll on every issue.”

 

“There are some matters of concern where constituents are right and others where the best representative does what he or she thinks ought to be done,” he wrote.

 

Another thing to remember: McConnell regards himself as a proud institutionalist. It’s hard to tell what that means for McConnell in this moment. Does he see conviction as a worthy punishment for a president who inspired an attack on a co-equal branch of government? If so, maybe it’s not such a long shot. Or does “protecting the institution” mean acquitting Trump, because a post-presidential impeachment is unconstitutional in McConnell’s view?

 

There are complicating factors McConnell is surely taking into account as he makes his decision: A vote to convict could make winning back the Senate in 2022 more difficult. It might also trigger calls from the GOP base for McConnell to step aside as leader, forcing his own members to choose between him and their voters.

 

Still, even McConnell’s closest advisers admit they have no idea what he’ll do. Senate Republicans close with him say they’re genuinely in the dark — though they predict he will acquit. McConnell has said little, maintaining his poker face throughout the impeachment managers’ presentations, just as he did during the last impeachment. One reporter said he’s looked like a statue throughout the trial, hands folded in his lap and listening intently.

 

McConnell’s office declined to comment, but the will-he-or-won’t-he parlor game goes on. Our best guess — it’s nothing more than that — is that McConnell will vote to acquit, then issue a blistering rebuke of Trump. We’ll see.