domingo, 26 de março de 2017
Maratona eleitoral alemã arranca com vitória da CDU no Sarre / 3 takeaways from election in Germany’s Saarland
O primeiro teste eleitoral ao “efeito Schulz” não terá tido um resultado favorável aos sociais-democratas.
PÚBLICO 26 de Março de 2017, 17:16
Angela Merkel fez campanha por Annegret Kramp-Karrenbaue no Sarre.Foto
Angela Merkel fez campanha por Annegret Kramp-Karrenbaue no Sarre. LUSA/RONALD WITTEK
Os democratas-cristãos da chanceler Angela Merkel serão os vencedores das eleições deste domingo no estado federado alemão do Sarre. De acordo com uma projecção da televisão pública ARD, a CDU terá alcançado 41% dos votos, contra 29,5% dos sociais-democratas do SPD e 13% do Die Linke.
O partido populista de direita Alternativa para a Alemanha (AfD, na sigla germânica), terá conquistado 6% dos votos. Os Verdes alemães terão conseguido 4,5% dos votos, enquanto os liberais do FDP obtiveram 3%.
Habitualmente, as eleições num dos mais pequenos estados alemães não despertariam grande atenção além-fronteiras. No entanto, a campanha no Sarre conquistou interesse por um súbito avanço do SPD nas sondagens nacionais, após a escolha do antigo presidente do Parlamento Europeu, Martin Schulz, para candidato a chanceler nas eleições gerais de Setembro. A nível nacional, Schulz está agora praticamente empatado com Merkel.
As eleições no Sarre eram vistas como um teste ao chamado "efeito Schulz".
No Sarre, as sondagens de Janeiro davam um avanço de dez pontos à CDU da chefe do governo estadual, Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer. Na semana da ida a votos, a vantagem tinha caído para um ponto percentual. Agora, e de acordo com as primeiras projecções, o muito "efeito Schulz" não terá tido influência na eleição estadual, a primeira de três (Schleswig-Holstein a 7 de Maio, Renânia do Norte-Vestefália a 14 do mesmo mês) antes das legislativas federais de 24 de Setembro, em que Merkel volta a procurar a reeleição. Kramp-Karrenbauer deverá ser reconduzida na liderança do executivo do Sarre.
3 takeaways from election in Germany’s Saarland
Merkel’s CDU outperforms while SPD’s ‘Schulz effect’ disappoints.
By JANOSCH DELCKER 3/26/17, 10:43 PM CET Updated 3/27/17, 4:34 AM CET
BERLIN — Chancellor Angela Merkel’s conservatives scored a windfall victory Sunday in the first of three regional elections ahead of Germany’s national election in the fall, giving the party a much-needed boost and buying the chancellor some time.
Merkel’s Christian Democrats (CDU) won 40.7 percent of the votes in Saarland, around 11 percentage points ahead of the Social Democrats (SPD) at 29.6 percent, followed by far-left Die Linke at 12.9 percent and the populist right-wing Alternative for Germany at 6.2 percent.
The result proved that “the CDU can mobilize voters,” CDU State Premier Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer told public broadcaster ARD, adding: “This also sends out an important signal for the CDU on the national level.”
Saarland was the first election since the SPD named former European Parliament President Martin Schulz as their candidate to challenge Merkel this fall. The SPD has surged in national opinion polls and Sunday’s state vote was a first test of the so-called “Schulz effect.”
Here are three takeaways:
1. Muted ‘Schulz effect’
At first blush, Sunday’s result might look disastrous for the SPD: While the CDU and SPD were running neck-and-neck in polls before the election, the Social Democrats ended up with considerably fewer votes than anticipated, around 11 percent points behind the CDU.
At the same time, however, the party did indeed win over some new voters — it just wasn’t enough.
“At the end of January, we were still at 24 percent, and tonight we will likely reach the result of the last regional election,” Schulz said on Sunday evening, speaking to the party faithful in Berlin. In 2012, the SPD reached 30.6 percent of the votes.
The message from SPD during the next couple of days will likely be that Saarland was mainly about state politics but that, nonetheless, the vote should serve as a warning that much more campaigning needs to be done for the SPD to win in September.
Is Merkel back in pole position to retain her chancellorship in September?
“It’s a long-distance run, not a sprint,” Schulz said.
2. A vote for a ‘grand coalition’ — against Die Linke
The only coalition possible in Saarland after Sunday’s vote seems to be another ‘grand coalition’ between the CDU and SPD. The conservatives have been in power in the state for 18 years. Kramp-Karrenbauer took over from a CDU predecessor in 2011 and since 2012 she has headed a ‘grand coalition’ with the SPD.
Ahead of Sunday’s vote, the SPD had sent out signals that it was willing to consider a coalition with Die Linke instead, which would allow them to push Kramp-Karrenbauer out of office even if she managed to win the most votes in the state. Few, however, had expected the popular Kramp-Karrenbauer to bring home such a strong result, which makes a so-called “red-red” coalition in the state virtually impossible.
“During the last couple of days, it became clear that the SPD would be willing to go down the path of a red-red coalition. This mobilized voters,” Kramp-Karrenbauer told ARD. “Today was a vote for a grand coalition.”
And yet, there’s one important thing to keep in mind…
3. It’s only Saarland
Although the vote attracted wide interest far beyond the state’s borders, the election in rural Saarland isn’t the most important regional election this year — that is yet to come.
With an electorate of only around 800,000, Saarland is too small to offer a clear picture of voting intentions of the roughly 61.5 million Germans who are eligible to vote in the fall.
The next state election is in Schleswig-Holstein on May 7, with about 2.3 million people eligible to vote — but all eyes are on the vote in North-Rhine Westphalia on May 14, which will be the most important state election to watch this year, with 13 million voters.