Scottish election 2021: SNP hopes of majority remain on a knife edge

 

Scottish election 2021: SNP hopes of majority remain on a knife edge

Published 22 minutes

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-57014885

 

The SNP has won three key seats but its hopes of securing an overall majority in the Scottish Parliament election remain on a knife edge.

 

The party has taken both Edinburgh Central - where former MP Angus Robertson was standing for the SNP - and Ayr from the Conservatives.

 

It also won the East Lothian seat from Labour.

 

But it fell short in other targets, with counting in the remaining seats due to resume on Saturday.

 

No other constituencies have changed hands so far, with the SNP currently on 39 seats, the Liberal Democrats four, Tories two and Labour one.

 

But the opposition parties will see their number of seats increase dramatically once the regional list results are finalised on Saturday.

 

Polling expert Prof Sir John Curtice said it was now unlikely, but not impossible, that the SNP would achieve an overall majority in the new Holyrood parliament.

 

And he said there were clear signs that tactical voting by pro-UK voters in some parts of the country had been successful.

 

The Alba Party, which was founded by former first minister and SNP leader Alex Salmond, looks unlikely to win any seats.

 

The results so far included First Minister Nicola Sturgeon - the SNP leader - easily holding off a challenge from Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar in her Glasgow Southside constituency.

 

Ms Sturgeon won by 9,456 votes, only marginally lower than the 9,593 she won by in 2016.

 

Turnout has been higher than anticipated in many areas, with the SNP's share of the vote falling in many of the early constituencies to declare but increasing in others.

 

Ms Sturgeon said that the SNP "appears to be on course for a fourth consecutive election victory and to be on course to have the privilege of forming a government again".

 

She pledged to "get back to work immediately" and lead the country's Covid recovery.

 

"And then, when the time is right, to offer this country the choice of a better future," she added.

 

Referendum agenda

It comes as UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson suggested he would reject any calls for a second independence referendum, saying it would be "irresponsible and reckless" right now.

 

Asked if an SNP majority would mean there was a mandate for another vote, he told the Daily Telegraph: "I think that count is still taking place and we'll have to see what happens. I listened to the Scottish election carefully. My impression was that they [the SNP] moved away from the idea of a referendum, and I think very wisely.

 

"I don't think this is anything like the time to have more constitutional wrangling, to be talking about ripping our country apart, when actually people want to heal our economy and bounce forward together. That's what people want."

 

However deputy first minister John Swinney told BBC Breakfast that his party would legislate for a second referendum if Mr Johnson were to block one.

 

He said: "We've said we will take forward legislation to have a legal referendum - we already have put in place some of the legislative arrangements for that process. We will embark on such an agenda should there be a majority for such a proposition in the Scottish Parliament."

 

Mr Swinney said that although he was waiting to see the "electoral arithmetic" of the final results, he was "very confident" there would be a majority of candidates "elected on a programme to deliver a referendum on independence".

 

Analysis box by Nick Eardley, political correspondent

The SNP's John Swinney has been on the broadcast round this morning. He's not quite giving up on a majority - telling the BBC it's going to be "incredibly close". He's right - it could come down to one seat.

 

But it's not just about the SNP. The Scottish Greens are likely to pick up a few seats this afternoon, on the regional list, which means there will be a pro-independence majority in Holyrood. Mr Swinney is adamant that is a mandate for indyref2.

 

So what next? Boris Johnson has again told the Telegraph this morning he thinks a referendum would be a bad idea. He plans to block it. That will infuriate independence supporters - Mr Swinney said this morning that the prime minister must accept "democracy in Scotland".

 

But he confirmed the SNP intend to go ahead with legislating for a referendum at Holyrood - then daring the UK government to challenge them in court The UK government will almost certainly do that - setting up a legal showdown down the road.

 

Nicola Sturgeon has ruled out a wildcat - or illegal referendum. I don't think she would go ahead with a vote that wasn't seen as legitimate internationally. But this story is going to continue to be a big part of Scottish and UK politics in the coming years.