Did Ukraine target Putin’s residence or is Russian claim a ploy to sway Trump?

 

Explainer

Did Ukraine target Putin’s residence or is Russian claim a ploy to sway Trump?

 

Ukraine has denied the claim and accused Russia of trying to undermine diplomatic progress – so who believes what?

 

Shaun Walker in Warsaw

Tue 30 Dec 2025 12.35 GMT

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/dec/30/did-ukraine-target-putin-residence-russian-claim-trump

 

Russia alleges Ukraine tried to hit Vladimir Putin’s residence in a mass drone attack on Monday. The foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, said Russian air defences shot down 91 drones, calling the attack an act of “state terrorism”.

 

Ukraine has denied the claim and Volodymyr Zelenskyy accused Lavrov of spreading “typical Russian lies” to try to undermine diplomatic progress between Kyiv and Washington after a bilateral meeting with Donald Trump at Mar-a-Lago in Florida on Sunday.

 

The Russian claim, as so much of geopolitics in 2025, seems to have been primarily targeted at an audience of one, Trump, and he seems to have bought it. “It’s one thing to be offensive, because they’re offensive. It’s another thing to attack his house. It’s not the right time to do any of that,” Trump said on Monday.

 

The allegation comes at a delicate diplomatic moment as Trump insists a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine is “95% done”. Zelenskyy is desperately trying to keep the US president on side while Russia has persuaded Trump it is ready for negotiations but appears unwilling to give up on its maximalist war aims.

 

What evidence has Moscow provided?

Absolutely none, and on Tuesday Putin’s spokesperson, Dmitry Peskov, said there would be none forthcoming. “I don’t think there should be any evidence if such a massive drone attack is being carried out, which, thanks to the well-coordinated work of the air defence system, was shot down,” he told journalists in a phone call.

 

Often, when there is a Ukrainian drone attack, Russians living nearby post video of explosions to social media, but there is no footage of this supposed attack, and residents of nearby Valdai told Russian independent media outlets they had not heard explosions on Monday.

 

Can Moscow be trusted?

In a word, no. The Kremlin and the defence ministry often make fantastical claims about the war in Ukraine. Moscow still insists it never targets civilians in its drone and missile raids on Ukraine, despite regular evidence to the contrary. Russian authorities have a long history of fictitious stories about Ukraine, stretching back to the 2014 annexation of Crimea when Putin claimed the Russian special forces annexing the peninsula were in fact local people.

 

Does that mean the drone attack definitely did not happen?

 

It is hard to say for sure. Ukraine certainly has a history of carrying out strikes deep inside Russia, including assassinations of military figures, drone attacks on oil refineries and, most spectacularly, Operation Spiderweb, in which camouflaged drones launched from trucks destroyed numerous Russian strategic bombers deep inside Russia.

 

Certainly, Putin’s residence would be seen by Ukrainian planners as a legitimate and tempting target. Making the move just at a key point in negotiations with Trump would be an odd choice, however, and the lack of corroborating witness accounts on the ground also makes the claims sound less plausible.

 

If it is a false claim, what’s the goal?

There are a couple of possibilities. Zelenskyy has claimed the accusation is a cover story to allow Moscow to strike government buildings in Kyiv, especially as Lavrov has said “retaliatory targets” have already been selected. But as the last four years show, Moscow does not require cover stories to hit all kinds of targets in Ukraine.

 

A more likely scenario would be that Putin, well aware of the theory that Trump is often swayed by the last person he spoke with, was wary of Zelenskyy’s in-person visit to Mar-a-Lago and what might be achieved in the talks. By accusing the Ukrainians of escalation, both publicly and to Trump on the phone, Putin may have been hoping to change the calculus in the US president’s head one more time and stave off any decisions the Kremlin would consider overly friendly to Kyiv.

 

Did Trump buy it?

The early indications are Trump believed the claim and was angered by Ukraine’s supposed actions. When a reporter suggested the claim could have been fabricated, Trump appeared to be considering the possibility for the first time. “You’re saying maybe the attack didn’t take place? That’s possible too I guess. But President Putin told me this morning it did,” he said.

 

The CIA could presumably give Trump a decent analysis on whether or not it believes the claim is true, but reports suggest the president often ignores the findings of his own intelligence agencies.

 

Does anyone else believe the Russians?

In European capitals the claims have been met with huge scepticism, but elsewhere there are signs that the accusation has landed. India’s prime minister, Narendra Modi, wrote on X in English and Russian that he was “deeply concerned” by the reports. “We urge all concerned to remain focused on these efforts and to avoid any actions that could undermine them,” he added.

 

Ukraine’s foreign minister, Andrii Sybiha, wrote on X on Tuesday: “We were disappointed and concerned to see the statements by Emirati, Indian and Pakistani sides expressing their concerns regarding the attack that never happened.” He said none of the three issued a statement when a Russian missile hit a Ukrainian government building in September.