Explainer
What’s at
stake at the Trump-Putin Ukraine peace summit?
These are
the key issues the leaders of the US and Russia will need to resolve to achieve
an end to the war in Ukraine
Dan
Sabbagh in Kyiv
Fri 15
Aug 2025 07.00 CEST
Few
believe that Friday’s Trump-Putin summit in Alaska will pave the way for a
breakthrough. Russia and Ukraine remain far apart – with the Kremlin seeking to
dominate its smaller neighbour while Kyiv wants to move decisively into the
western sphere.
Here are
some of the key issues that will need to be addressed to reach a meaningful
peace settlement.
1.
Territory
Russia
occupies around a fifth of Ukraine after more than three years of fighting but
continues to demand land. Earlier this week the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr
Zelenskyy, said Russia wanted the rest of Donetsk oblast, 9,000 square
kilometres of territory, in return for a ceasefire. Zelenskyy said Ukraine
could not agree, particularly for so little in return. Ukraine’s public would
also be unlikely to accept handing over more land to the invader.
Kyiv is
willing to accept a ceasefire on the current frontlines, which would be
followed by discussions about the future status of occupied territory. It is a
particularly sensitive issue. Russia has sought formal recognition of at least
some of the territory it has seized, most notably Crimea, but at best Ukraine
is only likely to accept a de facto occupation. An alternative is that the
status of occupied territories be parked for a future negotiation – “in 25
years time”, suggested John Foreman, a former British defence attache to
Moscow.
2.
Security guarantees
Russia
says it wants Ukraine to be neutral, though in practice this means a weak
neighbour with no ties to the west. In previous negotiations, still referenced
by the Kremlin, it has demanded that Kyiv’s military be reduced to a token
50,000. It also still calls for the country to be “denazified”, interpreted as
a call for the replacement of Zelenskyy.
Ukraine
would like to join Nato, though this has been rejected by the US, leaving it
searching for bilateral or multilateral security guarantees from its western
allies. Britain and France have promised to lead a predominantly European
“reassurance force” that will enter Ukraine in the event of a stable ceasefire,
though Russia is opposed to this.
On
Wednesday France’s president, Emmanuel Macron, said Trump had said the US was
also prepared to be part of security guarantees to prevent war breaking out
again. It is unclear what Trump is prepared to offer though, and a Japan or
South Korea style bilateral guarantee looks unlikely. Meanwhile, unless Russia
is prepared to accept that Ukraine can determine its own security arrangements,
agreed progress appears impossible.
3.
Sanctions and trade
Russia
wants economic sanctions that have been imposed on Moscow to be lifted. Trump,
however, can only speak for the US, with the UK and the EU likely to be more
hostile, unless Ukraine has signed up to an overall peace agreement. The
Kremlin also wants to go further, and today Putin’s adviser, Yuri Ushakov, said
the leaders would discuss wider cooperation, “including in the trade and
economic sphere”, as part of a proposed arrangement between the two countries.
Without tangible progress on other topics, a unilateral relaxation of sanctions
by the US would be surprising.
4. War
crimes, reparations and reconstruction
War
crimes and claims for reparations cannot be set aside as part of a peace
agreement. The international criminal court (ICC) has an arrest warrant out
against Putin over the forced transfer of about 20,000 children from Ukraine to
Russia. Zelenskyy has asked that the youngsters are returned in the first stage
of any peace discussions, but the ICC demand will not disappear. Ukraine
“remains under an obligation to investigate war crimes and crimes against
humanity against its own citizens”, says human rights lawyer Wayne Jordash.
The World
Bank estimated that the total cost of reconstruction and recovery in Ukraine –
where most of the war has been fought – amounts to €506bn (£4.35bn). After a
resolution of the UN general assembly, a register for reparation claims has
been set up by the Council of Europe to record eligible claims for
compensation. However, Russia has so far refused to help fund reconstruction,
leaving Ukraine to find alternative ways to fund its postwar rebuilding. An
option is to seize Russian assets held abroad, amounting to around $280bn
(£207bn), but achieving international consensus around seizure has been
difficult.
5. Other
issues
There are
many other practical concerns. Ukraine is calling for the release of all
prisoners of war alongside an initial ceasefire. Russia holds more than 8,000
Ukrainian PoWs and Ukraine a smaller amount, making one-for-one swaps tricky.
But there have been dozens of exchanges since the start of the war, and this
may be one of the simpler issues to agree upon.
Early in
the war, Russia seized the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, the largest in
Europe. Soon after it was shut down, but the site remains in Russian-held
territory and there are signs that Russia wants to restart it and connect it to
the country’s energy grid, a forced transfer that Ukraine will not recognise,
but may be powerless to prevent.
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