EU-US trade deal: The biggest losers and (a few) winners

 

EU-US trade deal: The biggest losers and (a few) winners

 

It’s a one-sided affair with most EU exports subject to a 15 percent U.S. tariff — but the auto, aviation and semiconductor industries have escaped the worst.

 

July 29, 2025 4:20 am CET

By POLITICO

https://www.politico.eu/article/winners-losers-eu-von-der-leyen-us-donald-trump-trade-deal-tariffs/

 

The trade deal struck by U.S. President Donald Trump and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen on Sunday at his Scottish golf resort was hugely one-sided.

 

The European Union faces the pain of 15 percent U.S. tariffs on most of its exports — and the bloc has had to make telephone-number-sized financial commitments both to import energy from the United States and to invest there.

 

However, from the powerful German auto industry to the European aviation and semiconductor sectors, there are some winners from the outline accord — which has yet to be finalized in writing.

 

POLITICO’s reporting team breaks down what we know so far:

 

What’s in the deal? As part of the agreement, Trump and von der Leyen agreed that the EU would purchase $750 billion of oil and liquefied natural gas from the U.S. — a figure that would also include other energy products such as nuclear fuel. That means $250 billion in new energy purchases each year, which the Commission chief said would also help end the EU’s remaining reliance on Russian imports.

 

Who wins, who loses? In theory, the deal is a huge win for U.S. oil and gas firms. In practice, experts say it’s unworkable. For starters, hitting that target would require the EU to triple its U.S. energy imports, based on last year’s figures, while asking American firms to divert all their energy flows worldwide toward the bloc — and then some. In comparison, Russia’s total energy sales to the EU totaled just €23 billion last year. Brussels also has limited tools to make that all happen: Imports are firmly in the hands of private firms.

 

By Victor Jack

Autos

What’s in the deal? U.S. tariffs on cars and auto parts are being reduced to the baseline 15 percent — a level that matches the deal notched earlier this month by Japanese automakers. In exchange, the EU has agreed to lower its car tariffs from 10 percent to zero, trade spokesperson Olof Gill said. The devil is in the details, however, which remain sparse. Under the U.S.-Japan deal, the Asian country will take vehicles approved to U.S. automotive standards. A senior Commission official said the EU deal includes “a commitment to work together … to see where standards are already aligned or where we need to work more closely to align them in the future.” As POLITICO scooped, the executive previously floated the idea of matching U.S. autonomous driving standards, which was mentioned in Monday’s technical briefing as a possibility.

 

Who wins, who loses? According to the German car lobby, this is a bad deal that will continue to burden the sector. It joined the American auto sector in decrying tariffs on cars and parts produced in Mexico, which remain at the higher 25 percent. The real loser is not the automakers, though, but their workers, according to Ferdinand Dudenhöffer, the director of Germany’s Center Automotive Research. He estimates that up to 70,000 jobs across European car companies and their suppliers could be lost as automakers move production to the U.S. to skirt the 15 percent tariff.

 

By Jordyn Dahl

Aviation

What’s in the deal? The EU-U.S. zero-for-zero tariffs deal on “all aircraft and component parts,” announced by von der Leyen, allows both plane makers and airlines to breathe a sigh of relief. The global supply chain that lies behind every aircraft makes this sector more vulnerable to trade barriers than others. Following the 17-year dispute between Airbus and Boeing that concluded in 2021, neither the European nor the American industries were interested in entering a new trade war involving aviation.

 

Who wins, who loses? Although Boeing may have benefited from tariffs on its competitor Airbus in the short term, analysts note that the U.S. aircraft manufacturer would suffer more under EU retaliation. Instead, some U.S. airlines operating an Airbus fleet, such as Delta Air Lines and Spirit Airlines, would have immediately felt the impact of tariffs on their European suppliers. Among the losers of the zero-for-zero tariff are leasing companies on both sides of the Atlantic, which — if tit-for-tat tariffs had been introduced — would have been the tool used by airlines to avoid the extra charges.

 

By Tommaso Lecca

Pharmaceuticals

What’s in the deal? Trump and von der Leyen flatly contradicted each other on Sunday, with the U.S. president saying the trade deal didn’t include pharmaceuticals — and the Commission chief saying it did. Commission officials clarified on Monday that the rate remains at zero for now. But Brussels is expecting a top tariff rate of 15 percent to take effect once the U.S. administration’s Section 232 investigation into the sector — under which tariffs can be imposed for reasons of national security — is complete. There are some exemptions for “certain generics,” von der Leyen said, although it’s not clear yet which.

 

Who wins, who loses? Generics companies — those that make the cheapest drugs of all — say they have the most to lose because of their small margins, even if the eventual tariff rate is significantly lower than the 200 percent Trump had threatened a few weeks ago. Industry association Medicines for Europe wants more clarity on which drugs would see zero tariffs applied, and is pushing the EU and the U.S. to “expand the tariff-free list of medicines as widely as possible.” Pharma company Merck said it welcomed the fact that a deal has at least been made, while in Ireland — which is particularly exposed because of its huge pharma sector — business association Ibec said Europe had “capitulated.”

 

By Mari Eccles

Technology

What’s in the deal? Sunday’s deal included chip equipment as one of the sectors that received a zero-for-zero tariff, meaning it’s exempt from the baseline 15 percent tariff. Von der Leyen underlined that the EU is and would remain a prominent buyer of American artificial intelligence chips. “U.S. AI chips will help power our AI gigafactories and help the U.S. to maintain their technological edge,” she said.

 

Who wins, who loses? The zero-for-zero tariff was widely seen as a win for Dutch chip printing machine maker ASML, one of Europe’s largest firms by market capitalization. The machines that ASML ships are worth hundreds of millions of euros apiece. ASML didn’t commit to growth this year in mid-July amid the tariff uncertainty, but its stock gained 4 percent on Monday. Von der Leyen’s commitment to buy U.S. AI chips is a setback, though, for proponents of a more technologically sovereign Europe — since continuing to buy them prolongs the bloc's reliance on U.S. tech.

 

By Pieter Haeck

Digital Regulation

What’s in the deal? Nothing. The Commission called the Trump administration’s bluff on its attempt to bend the EU’s rules — and for the time being it has paid off. “There is absolutely no commitment on digital regulation, nor on digital taxes,” said a senior EU official, adding that the Commission’s defense of the bloc’s regulator autonomy hadn't received enough attention.

 

Who wins, who loses? The EU’s digital rulebook — and in particular the Digital Markets Act and the Digital Services Act — has emerged unscathed. That wasn’t for a lack of pressure on the U.S. side, with Big Tech players like Meta and Apple becoming increasingly outspoken over the DMA. They are keeping up the pressure — the Computer & Communications Industry Association tech lobby group has just published a study that pegged the cost and lost revenues of the EU's digital rules at $97.6 billion annually, including roughly $1 billion in DMA compliance costs alone.

 

By Jacob Parry