Netanyahu Survives a Vote to Dissolve Parliament but Emerges Weakened

 

Netanyahu Survives a Vote to Dissolve Parliament but Emerges Weakened

 

Some of the Israeli prime minister’s coalition partners backed an opposition motion over rules that exempt most religious students from serving in the military.

 

Isabel Kershner

By Isabel Kershner

Reporting from Jerusalem

June 11, 2025

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/11/world/middleeast/israel-knesset-vote-orthodox-draft-law.html

 

A motion by opposition parties to dissolve the Israeli Parliament failed in the early hours of Thursday morning.

 

But the vote itself presented the most serious challenge yet to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s right-wing government, exposing splits in the ruling coalition and weakening his leadership credentials.

 

Fifty-three of the 120 Parliament members voted for the dissolution bill, including two members of the governing coalition, while a majority of 61 opposed it.

 

Despite the defeat, representatives of the opposition parties said that they had nevertheless managed to drive a wedge into the coalition’s ranks.

 

By bringing the bill to a vote, the opposition parties planned to exploit a fight within the governing coalition over the contentious, decades-old policy that has largely exempted ultra-Orthodox men who are studying religion in seminaries from compulsory military service.

 

Mr. Netanyahu’s ultra-Orthodox coalition partners, the United Torah Judaism and Shas parties, have been locked in a dispute with other members of the government over proposals to enlist many ultra-Orthodox men of draft age into the armed forces. The issue has taken on more urgency, and spurred growing public anger and scrutiny, since the Hamas-led attack on Oct. 7, 2023, ignited Israel’s war in Gaza.

 

The ultra-Orthodox parties had been threatening to cross parliamentary lines and vote with the opposition. If they had done so, in a united front, they would have provided the opposition with the majority needed to dissolve Parliament.

 

Instead, only two members of United Torah Judaism broke ranks and supported the dissolution bill.

 

Shortly before the vote, Mr. Netanyahu reached an 11th-hour compromise with the ultra-Orthodox politicians over possible legislation for the enlistment, leading most of them to oppose the dissolution bill and averting a more severe government crisis, if only temporarily.

 

In any case, had the vote passed, it would not likely have caused the government to fall immediately. Under the parliamentary process, this vote is considered preliminary. Any final vote would have taken months, giving the prime minister time to shore up his increasingly fractious governing coalition or create more favorable conditions for himself before a return to the ballot box.

 

The  ultra-Orthodox leaders’ threats to quit the government or dissolve the Knesset had been mostly intended as a tactic to prevent the forced enlistment of seminary students.

 

The hurried compromise reached early Thursday was unlikely to solve the conundrum over ultra-Orthodox enlistment that has confounded successive Israeli governments. But it could buy Mr. Netanyahu time.

 

“Netanyahu is a master of stalling,” said Aviv Bushinsky, a political analyst and a former media adviser to the prime minister in one of his previous terms. No government would be able to find a formula for enlistment in the near future that would satisfy the ultra-Orthodox parties, the Israeli public and the military, he said, so the only solution is “to try to delay.”

 

The ultra-Orthodox have been largely exempt from military service since the establishment of Israel in 1948. Yet the number of full-time religious seminary students has grown from hundreds to tens of thousands in that time.

 

Israelis have long bristled over a lack of equal treatment in a country where most Jewish 18-year-olds, male and female, are conscripted for years of compulsory military service. The long war in Gaza has added to the anger and underscored the military’s need for more soldiers. A year ago, Israel’s Supreme Court ruled that the mass exemption policy must end.

 

Mr. Netanyahu’s coalition was formed in 2022 and commands a majority of 68 seats in the, or Parliament. Shas and United Torah Judaism hold 18 seats between them, giving them strong leverage. The next election would take place in October 2026 if the government were to reach full term.

 

The ultra-Orthodox parties are not keen to break up the government, which is the most right-wing and religiously conservative in Israel’s history. Their constituencies have been given a lot of financial support and other privileges, and they would  have little to gain from an early election, as it is unlikely that they would do better in any other coalition or political constellation.

 

Mr. Netanyahu’s government has become increasingly unpopular since October 2023, with opinion polls indicating that the coalition would not win an election at this time. Many Israelis are outraged at the prime minister’s refusal to take personal responsibility for the intelligence, policy and military failures leading up to the 2023 attack and for not doing enough to return the hostages who were taken that day and remain in Gaza.

 

Mr. Netanyahu, Israel’s longest serving prime minister and a political survivor, has endured many government crises during his previous terms in office.

 

But the split inside the coalition has given the opposition parties — a diverse collection of left-wing, centrist, right-leaning and Arab factions — a rare political opportunity to challenge the government.

 

The parliamentary opposition has long struggled to coalesce around a common agenda beyond a shared antipathy to Mr. Netanyahu and his ruling coalition. While its main parties support the move to enlist ultra-Orthodox religious students, they say their priority is to bring down the government and force new elections.

 

Even though this attempt failed, analysts said, it showed that Mr. Netanyahu may be losing his grip and appears unable to control parts of his coalition.

 

Johnatan Reiss and Gabby Sobelman contributed reporting.

 

Isabel Kershner, a Times correspondent in Jerusalem, has been reporting on Israeli and Palestinian affairs since 1990.