Analysis
Israel’s
strikes on Iran show Trump is unable to restrain Netanyahu as Middle East slips
closer to chaos
Andrew Roth
in
Washington
Critics have
said the US decision to retreat from the region has led to a greater likelihood
of conflict
Fri 13 Jun
2025 04.11 BST
As Israeli
jets struck targets in Iran on Friday morning, the US moved quickly to distance
itself from Benjamin Netanyahu’s decision to target Tehran in an escalation
that threatens an all-out war in the Middle East.
The
unilateral strikes indicated a collapse of Donald Trump’s efforts to restrain
the Israeli prime minister and almost certainly scuttled Trump’s efforts to
negotiate a deal with Iran that would prevent the country from seeking a
nuclear weapon.
It also will
probably lead to an Iranian retaliation that could develop into a larger war
between Israel and Iran, a new conflict that Trump has publicly sought to
avoid.
As the dust
was still settling from the strikes in Tehran, senior US officials were reduced
to calling the Israeli strike a “unilateral” action and warned Tehran away from
retaliating against US embassies and bases in the region.
“Tonight,
Israel took unilateral action against Iran,” said secretary of state Marco
Rubio in a statement. “We are not involved in strikes against Iran and our top
priority is protecting American forces in the region.
“Israel
advised us that they believe this action was necessary for its self-defence,”
he continued. “President Trump and the administration have taken all necessary
steps to protect our forces and remain in close contact with our regional
partners. Let me be clear: Iran should not target US interests or personnel.”
Washington
officials and analysts had expected that Israel would hold off on launching
strikes at least until after the US exhausted attempts to negotiate a deal with
Iran. During a phone call on Monday, Trump had urged Netanyahu not to attack
Iran, the Wall Street Journal reported. But by Wednesday, Trump began to pull
non-essential personnel out of embassies and bases in the Middle East within
striking distance of Iran.
“There’s
clearly some confusion in the US position right now … and some differences
between the United States position and Israel’s position,” said William
Wechsler, the senior director of the Rafik Hariri Center & Middle East
programs at the Atlantic Council.
It was
unlikely that Netanyahu would have launched the strike if he was explicitly
given a red light by the Trump administration, said Wechsler. But the Trump
administration had hastily distanced itself from the strike and had also failed
to suggest it would participate in defending Israel from a likely Iranian
retaliation.
“At least
out of the box, it seems to be a rather discordant US response,” he said.
Adding to
the confusion, an Israeli broadcaster close to Netanyahu’s government said on
Thursday that the strikes were fully coordinated with Washington.
Trump’s
Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, was expected to travel to Muscat in Oman in
order to conduct a sixth round of talks with Iran on Sunday in what was seen as
a last chance for diplomacy.
And the
strikes took place just hours after Trump had publicly urged the Netanyahu
government not to attack Iran, with the US president saying that he believed an
Israeli offensive would “blow” up the negotiations.
“I’d love to
avoid a conflict,” Trump said in remarks from the White House on Thursday. “We
are fairly close to a pretty good agreement … I’d much prefer an agreement. As
long as I think there is an agreement I don’t want them going in because I
think that would blow it.”
But, in a
nod to speculation that the US was intentionally signaling an imminent attack
against Iran, he noted that a strike could also compel Iran to make a deal that
would limit its efforts to seek a nuclear weapon.
“It might
help it actually but it also could blow it,” he said.
That is now
a reality. Critics have said the US decision to retreat from the region,
stemming from Trump’s decision to abandon the Iranian nuclear deal called the
Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action under the first Trump administration has led
to a greater likelihood of conflict in the region.
The attack
was “clearly intended to scuttle the Trump administration’s negotiations with
Iran,” said Senator Chris Murphy of Connecticut, and is “further evidence of
how little respect world powers – including our own allies – have for President
Trump”.
“This is a
disaster of Trump and Netanyahu’s own making, and now the region risks
spiraling toward a new, deadly conflict,” he added.
“Iran would
not be this close to possessing a nuclear weapon if Trump and prime minister
Netanyahu had not forced America out of the nuclear agreement with Iran that
had brought Europe, Russia and China together behind the United States to
successfully contain Iran’s nuclear ambitions.”
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