London Playbook: Suella speaks — Backseat drivers
— Votes for EU and you and you
BY ROSA
PRINCE
MAY 15,
2023 8:14 AM CET
London
Playbook
By ROSA
PRINCE
WHILE YOU
WERE SLEEPING: Turkey appears to be heading for a runoff election after neither
President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan or his rival Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu cleared the
required 50 percent hurdle for victory. Erdoğan performed stronger than
expected in early results, but with both sides accusing each other of election
malpractice, his two-decade rule remains in the balance. The runoff will be
held on May 28. Full details here from POLITICO’s Christian Oliver and Elçin
Poyrazlar, who are on the ground in Turkey.
Good Monday
morning. This is Rosa Prince — I’ll be back Tuesday as well.
DRIVING THE
DAY
THE RIGHT
VS. RISHI: The Tory right gathers for its second conference in three days, as
the fallout from this month’s disastrous local elections proves long of tail.
Downing Street’s hopes of moving on with the prime minister’s agenda while he
prepares to fly off for talks with world leaders seem futile, with Rishi
Sunak’s leadership coming under greater criticism than at any time since the
very beginning of his six months in office. Home Secretary Suella Braverman is
the star attraction at today’s National Conservative Conference, where a
succession of leading right-wingers will urge the government not to tack to the
center following its electoral drubbing.
Suella
speaks: After the weekend’s love-in for for ex-PM Boris Johnson in Bournemouth,
where the Conservative Democratic Organization held its gathering, it’s the
turn of the National Conservative Conference to get under Sunak’s skin. The
three-day festival of fun organized by the Edmund Bourke Foundation and held at
Westminster’s Emmanuel Center kicks off with a stirring address from Jacob
Rees-Mogg at 10 a.m. (of which more later) before Braverman takes to the ice at
2 p.m. The Telegraph, Times, Guardian and i all lead on the pre-briefing of her
remarks.
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Not racist
or hypocritical: The home secretary’s words are remarkable in themselves, as
she calls for Brits to be trained to be “HGV drivers, butchers or fruit
pickers” and not “forget how to do things ourselves,” and particularly in her
insistence that it’s not racist or hypocritical for her, the child of migrants,
to seek to control migration. But it is perhaps the fact Braverman almost seems
to be lobbying from within government that is the most startling aspect of her
speech. Amid rumors of a cabinet split, the home secretary is clearly
determined to pressure Rishi Sunak not to relax visa rules and to remain
staunch on migration, legal or otherwise. The i has more.
On the
policy: In the Guardian, Madeleine Sumption of the Oxford Migration Observatory
takes umbrage with Braverman’s argument, saying more than half of skilled
worker visas last year went to care staff, in posts which could be filled by
Brits if the government improved pay. The NFU added that the government’s Pick
for Britain campaign had failed to attract sufficient agricultural workers.
Braverman will insist, however: “Brexit enables us to build a high-skilled,
high wage economy that is less dependent on low-skilled foreign labor.”
Back story:
Braverman will also use her speech to set out her back story, describing her
upbringing as the child of migrants from Kenya and Mauritius, and rejecting
suggestions that it’s “bigoted” or hypocritical for someone with her
antecedents to get tough on illegal migration. By highlighting her family story
and Conservative journey, she will inevitably invite suggestions that she is
shoring up her position ahead of the next leadership election, particularly
following fellow front-runner Kemi Badenoch’s stumble over the EU Retained Law
Bill.
JRM SPEAKS:
While Braverman’s words may lead those inside No. 10 to raise an eyebrow, Jacob
Rees-Mogg’s will have them spluttering over their morning flat whites. JRM is
not happy at all about Badenoch’s move, and will use his opening keynote speech
to directly accuse Rishi Sunak of breaking a campaign promise (Sunak pledged to
review or repeal EU laws within 100 days, but ministers say more laws than
anticipated were discovered). Calling on the government to be more “ambitious,”
he will declare that most of last month’s budget could have been delivered by
Shadow Chancellor Rachel Reeves, saying the expansion of child care was
“fundamentally anti-Conservative.” The Telegraph has more.
That’s not
all: Among the other speakers, emerging stars on the right Danny Kruger and
Miriam Cates are both due up today. The Times hears Kruger, a former political
secretary to Boris Johnson, will urge Sunak to focus on maintaining the support
of working-class northerners and not “retreat to the southeast, to the
managerial class, to the affluent.”
SCOOPLET:
Fresh from confirming the worst kept secret in town — that he’s prepared to
ditch his peerage if he is successful in scoring a seat and becoming an MP —
former Brexit negotiator David Frost will speak at the third and final day of
the conference on Wednesday. And Playbook has had a sneak peek at what is
effectively a rallying cry to Sunak’s government not to give up on the policies
of the Liz Truss era, including seeking out radical means to boost growth.
Frost will
say: “We must not fall into the trap of advocating policies which won’t
actually solve the country’s problems just because they’re said to be the only
ones politically possible … I can’t agree that the only way forward is through
the state, public spending, and industrial policy. It slows growth and
prosperity, it reduces incomes, so it weakens cohesion, increases social
conflict, and makes finding resources to solve all our other problems even more
difficult. It’s a blind alley and for Conservatives a distraction from the
harder task of getting tax, spend, and regulation down.”
NB: Guido
reckons Frost could fight Andrew Bridgen in North West Leicestershire.
LET THEM
EAT PIE: Sunak isn’t letting all this bellyaching about his leadership get to
him. Oh no. Instead he’s inviting all his party’s MP, including his rudest
critics, to a reception in the garden of 10 Downing Street tonight, to
celebrate the coronation of King Charles. Under not so balmy skies, they will be
served giant pork pies from his local butcher in his Yorkshire constituency. At
least it’s not forecast to rain.
Not
bovvered: Asked about the general sense of unrest in the party following the
local election results, including Priti Patel’s lament for Boris Johnson at the
CDO conference, a Downing Street official pointed to Grant Shapps’ bullish
appearance on the Sunday broadcast round, in which he insisted the government
was still “buzzing with ideas.”
Poll alert:
A Savanta poll commissioned by the Liberal Democrats in the wake of the Tories’
local election drubbing found 22 percent of voters thought Sunak would step
down before the next general election.
Heading
off: On Tuesday, Sunak heads off to Iceland for a meeting of the Council of
Europe, before going on to Tokyo for the G7. No one remind him about the old
adage that PMs are at their most vulnerable when they’re abroad.
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BACK SEAT
DRIVERS
TRUSS
TRAVELS: As the Sunday Times’ Tim Shipman pointed out in an entertaining
article, both Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer are plagued by a plethora of
youngish, energetic predecessors who are proving irritatingly (for the current
leaders) willing and able to drag the political spotlight back on to
themselves. Today, Liz Truss pops up at the Copenhagen Democracy Summit, where
she will be interviewed by POLITICO Europe’s own Editor in Chief Jamil
Anderlini. You can watch the livestream from 1.50 p.m. U.K. time here.
What she’ll
say: Truss is expected to expand on her idea of creating an “economic NATO” of
like-minded, freedom-loving nations, which could agree to join forces in how
they trade and invest, and what technology they export.
Talking
Taiwan: The session is titled “countering China’s coercion” and Jamil will
certainly question Truss about her plans to visit Taiwan Tuesday, where she is
expected to call for greater military cooperation to deter China from starting
a war in the South Pacific.
ICYMI:
Interviewed by the New Statesman’s Harry Lambert, former Foreign Office chief
Simon McDonald took aim at Truss, Johnson, the last Labour government and,
well, pretty much every politician since Douglas Hurd. Funnily enough he’s
getting quite a bit of heat in the Twittosphere.
MORE IN
EX-PM DRAMA: Boris Johnson planned to give Michael Gove a knighthood in his
resignation honors list but withdrew it in October after blaming him for
orchestrating Sunak’s effective coronation by persuading Kemi Badenoch to pull
out of the race. Matt Dathan has the tale.
We’re
honored: Dathan also reports that Guto Harri, whose podcast about the last days
of Rome that were the denouement of the Johnson years, has had his own
knighthood downgraded to a CBE as punishment, which is the Westminster
equivalent of being sent to your room with no iPad.
Agents of
chaos: With the CDO making clear his fans have yet to relinquish their dreams
of a comeback, it’s hard to know whether Johnson’s ambitions or Truss’ quest to
unleash war with China pose the greatest existential threat to Sunak.
LABOUR LAND
VOTES FOR
ALL? Keir Starmer takes part in a “Call Keir” LBC phone-in with Nick Ferrari
from 9 a.m.; expect him to be grilled about the suggestion, first trailed in
the Sunday Telegraph and confirmed by Shadow Business Secretary Jonathan
Reynolds, that the party is considering giving both EU nationals living in the
U.K. and 16 and 17-year-olds the right to vote in general elections. The Mail
and Express both give the idea a good old kicking on their front pages, echoing
Tory Party Chairman Greg Hands’ claim this would amount to “rig[ging]” the
election.
Scores on
the doors: As Twitter pointed out to an outraged Lee Anderson, Irish citizens
can already vote in U.K. general elections, as can some Commonwealth citizens.
Moreover, EU citizens can vote in local elections. In Scotland and Wales, 16
and 17-year-olds can vote in devolved assembly elections. It’s all here, from
the House of Commons library. Brits living in EU nations may not, however, vote
in any elections there as a result of Brexit, the top EU court ruled last year.
Preaching
to the converted: Starmer has given an interview to today’s Mirror in which he
tells pol ed John Stevens of his ambition to cut taxes for the lowest paid, and
says he is considering bringing back maintenance grants for less well-off
students. He also calls for an immediate general election, saying of the
Conservatives: “The longer they’re in office, the worse damage they will do.”
WHAT LABOUR
WANTS TO TALK ABOUT: The pro-Starmer Labour Together think tank has crunched
the numbers with the help of YouGov and reckons around a quarter of voters who
ticked the Liberal Democrat box at the local elections would switch to Labour
when the general is called, handing the party an outright majority. The Times
has a write-up.
KEEPING UP
THE MO: Meanwhile the Guardian’s Aletha Adu hears that left-wing MPs including
former Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell are urging Starmer to repair links with
his predecessor Jeremy Corbyn’s praetorian guard Momentum, in order to take
advantage of its campaign potential and avoid a hung parliament at the next
election.
FREE
LUNCHES GALORE: Lobbyists for the tech and entertainment industries are ramping
up efforts to woo the shadow cabinet ahead of the next election, my colleague
Esther Webber reports. Keir Starmer has received football tickets worth more
than £12,000 since May last year. Eight members of staff received gifts
including tickets to see Harry Styles, the BRITs and Doncaster races from
Google UK, YouTube, Arena Racing, the Premier League and music industry
lobbying outfits.
That’s not
all: Shadow Culture Secretary Lucy Powell, Starmer’s lead on these policy
areas, accepted gifts from Google UK, the Jockey Club, and Camelot, the
operator of the National Lottery. Jonathan Reynolds bagged football match
tickets donated by the Football Association. A Labour spokesperson said:
“Everything has been declared in [the] correct way and this has absolutely no
impact on our policies.”
Come on you
Spurs: Perhaps most unedifying of all for avid Arsenal fan Starmer, some of the
football tickets were donated by Tottenham Hotspur.
NOW READ
THIS: Since shooting to political prominence as Britain’s chief finance
minister in February 2020, Rishi Sunak has been labeled Britain’s first
tech-bro politician. But my POLITICO colleague Annabelle Dickson reports that
the PM is more financier than entrepreneur, according to those who have worked
with him: “He worked for a hedge fund rather than founding a startup, and
that’s all you need to know,” said one former minister, who worked directly
with Sunak. “He’s always just looking at cost benefits.”
BROKEN
BRITAIN
BY THE
SEASIDE: The Royal College of Nursing annual congress continues in Brighton,
with leader Pat Cullen coming under heat after changing her tune over the
government’s 5 percent pay offer. Members will be balloted again over strike
action on May 23, with the union retabling its double digit pay demand. Sky has
the story.
TEACHERS
BALLOT: The National Education Union and National Association of Head Teachers
are due to hold strike ballots after rejecting government pay offers, with
further industrial action likely in the autumn term.
ON THE
RAILWAYS: A ban on overtime by drivers from the Aslef train union from today
until Saturday could see last-minute cancellations.
Also on
strike: Members of the PCS union based in HMRC offices in East Kilbride and
Newcastle are on strike until June 2.
TODAY IN
WESTMINSTER
FOR THE
VICTIMS: The Victims and Prisoners Bill has its second reading later today, and
Shadow Victims Minister Anna McMorrin and former Victims Commissioner Vera
Baird have a joint piece in the Mirror calling for the proposed law to be
beefed up. The party wants rape survivors to be provided with a legal advocate,
for victims of anti-social behavior to be covered by the Victims Code, and the
proposed “Hillsborough Law” for victims of major tragedies to be expanded.
Reed the
room: Shadow Justice Secretary Steve Reed has an in-depth interview with
Francis Elliot in the i, in which he says he was fully behind those pedophile
ads, calls for more understanding of the neurological causes of offending, and
discusses his long-standing friendship with the party’s campaign chief Morgan
McSweeney.
OCCUPATIONAL
HAZARD: As the Retained EU Law Bill returns to the Lords today, the Institution
of Occupational Safety and Health has a survey of 330 professionals, showing
that a majority believe the watered-down bill will still cost business and
government financially, and lead to cutbacks in inward investment and
opportunities. Vanessa Harwood-Whitcher, chief executive of the IOSH, said:
“Even in its new form, the REUL Bill still risks negatively impacting both the
U.K.’s reputation as a global leader for health and safety and its economy at
what is already an incredibly uncertain time.”
Even
smaller bonfire: Meanwhile, the TUC’s Paul Nowak is urging peers to prevent
what he describes as a “ministerial power grab” by voting for amendments to
safeguard worker rights and limit the government’s power to rewrite the law
with minimal scrutiny. He said: “Tinkering with the status of EU law could
unravel decades of case law — making it harder for workers to enforce their
rights and for women to make equal pay claims. And ministers are handing
themselves huge powers to circumvent normal parliamentary procedures and
rewrite legislation.”
SAFE AS
HOUSES: Twisting the knife in the post-local elections Conservative fissure
over housing, London Mayor Sadiq Khan delivers a speech at 11 a.m. in East
London in which he’ll claim to have hit his own ambitious home-building
targets. Declaring “London is building again,” Khan will say work began on
25,000 affordable homes in the capital last year, three times the rate achieved
by Boris Johnson when he was mayor. He will also call on the government to give
him the power to freeze rents, saying: “London’s housing crisis is clearly a
brake on growth and a barrier to Londoners fulfilling their potential. And
fixing it is key to safeguarding the soul of our city.”
Get
building: Leveling Up Secretary Michael Gove has written to the Peak District
National Park Authority and nine councils threatening to strip them of planning
responsibilities if they continue to fall short of targets for making decisions
on planning applications, the Telegraph reports.
Diary note:
London Minister Paul Scully is expected to announce this week that he’ll throw
his hat into the ring to be the Conservative candidate to take on Khan for the
mayoralty next year. He tells Playbook Thursday is likely to be the day.
MORAL
IMPERATIVE: Writing in the Times, former Health Secretary Sajid Javid says the
government must make a concerted effort to tackle dementia, and suggests
hospitals could be given incentives to employ GPs to ensure more joined-up
care. Criticizing the government for dropping his proposed Dementia 10-year
plan, alongside similar schemes for cancer and mental health, in favor of a
broader approach to treatment, he writes: “Like others, I worry that this new
strategy will mean critical disease-specific action could not happen. By
failing to prepare for each disease there is now a risk we fail to properly
deliver.”
WHAT’S THE
DIAGNOSIS? Health Secretary Steve Barclay is announcing £2.3 billion in funding
for six new diagnostic centers. Scunthorpe, Pitsea, Walton and Solihull are
among the areas chosen for the new sites.
NOT THE
BESTIVALS: Analysis shared with the Independent shows the number of U.K.
performers playing festivals in Britain is nearly a third down on the immediate
years before Brexit. Elton John’s husband David Furnish told the paper: “The
new generation of artists coming through unfortunately are now finding
themselves, for touring Europe, with a lot of red tape, a lot of complications
and a lot of additional costs.”
EVENTS DEAR
BOY: Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill takes part in a live Q&A on
monetary policy, 5 p.m., register here.
HOUSE OF
COMMONS: Sits from 2.30 p.m. with defense questions followed by the second
reading of the Victims and Prisoners Bill. Labour MP Rupa Huq has the adjournment
debate on health inequalities in northwest London.
WESTMINSTER
HALL: A debate at 4.30 p.m. on two e-petitions to appoint an allergy czar and
force restaurants to put all allergen information on their main menu. Owen
Carey, who had a dairy allergy, died after being served buttermilk chicken for
his 18th birthday.
Committee
corridor: Treasury Permanent Secretary James Bowler and Cabinet Office perm sec
Alex Chisholm are at the Public Accounts Committee on tackling fraud and
corruption (3.30 p.m.) … Tony Redmond, who wrote a 2020 review of local
government financial transparency, is among those discussing the topic at the
Levelling-Up, Housing and Communities Committee (4 p.m.) … and Scottish affairs
hears from the chief executives of the Edinburgh Fringe and Military Tattoo on
promoting Scotland internationally (3 p.m.).
HOUSE OF
LORDS: Sits from 2.30 p.m. with oral questions, including from Tory peer Liz
Sugg on preparations for June’s Ukraine Recovery Conference in London …
followed by the first of two days’ report stage on the Retained EU Law Bill.
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