Erdoğan is in the lead in Turkey’s elections – and democracy is likely to be the loser

 

Erdoğan is in the lead in Turkey’s elections – and democracy is likely to be the loser

Constanze Letsch

The opposition had to face down a hostile media and the president’s entrenched power. This disappointment could further skew the second round

 

Mon 15 May 2023 13.15 BST

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/may/15/recep-tayyip-erdogan-turkey-elections-democracy-kemal-kilicdaroglu

 

It was a tense and confusing night after election polls closed in Turkey yesterday. The official result is still unclear, but a runoff between the president, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, and his main challenger, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, looks increasingly likely. Neither seem to have reached the necessary 50% threshold to win the election outright, but Erdoğan is clearly in the lead. In a press conference in the early morning hours, Kılıçdaroğlu said he that he was confident that he would win the runoff. However, enthusiasm, both onstage and among his supporters, was muted. These were not the faces of winners.

 

While many thought that the opposition’s campaign, centred around political reform, unity and an end to the toxic polarisation in the country, was a breath of fresh air; others have criticised Kılıçdaroğlu’s approach for targeting mostly those who already agreed with his views, for his blue-sky attitude and focus on positive soundbites on social media.

 

In their 21 years in power, Erdoğan and the AKP have amassed incredible powers and resources, bending the mainstream media, the judiciary and state institutions to their will and their message. The opposition was always fighting an uphill battle.

 

Its election campaign was run amid a ruthless and increasing crackdown on civil society and freedom of speech in Turkey. Human rights groups have been criminalised and sidelined over the past years. Journalists have been jailed for their reporting. NGOs were shut down. Civil society leaders have been put on trial on bogus terrorism charges. Government-appointed trustees replaced democratically elected local politicians in the predominantly Kurdish south-east. Women’s rights were put on the auction block for the sake of wooing ultraconservative parties and voters. Hate speech and violence against the LGBTQ+ community have soared.

 

It would be cynical to argue that Kılıçdaroğlu’s election promise to return Turkey to democracy and the rule of law, with a seat at the table for everyone who wants to make their voice heard, was simply not attractive enough and too soft. It certainly is what millions of people in Turkey desperately wanted, and still want.

 

This hope was reflected in the energy and courage of civil society in the runup to yesterday’s polls. The elections mobilised tens of thousands of volunteers who campaigned for Kılıçdaroğlu and other opposition parties, who rallied to get out the vote, who monitored voting, protected ballot boxes and reported inconsistencies. Civil society groups organised transportation for the people displaced from the regions affected by the devastating February earthquakes back to cities where they were still registered to vote. People there opened their homes to accommodate them. Video editors helped desperate youngsters whose parents requested filmed proof of them casting their vote in favour of Erdoğan. Voter turnout stood at a very high 88.8%, according to Turkey’s supreme election council (YSK).

 

Despite this, the results so far point to a loss for Kılıçdaroğlu and his alliance. It is very difficult to say exactly why the votes went this way – we will likely understand more in days to come, not just on why Kılıçdaroğlu performed worse than expected but why Erdoğan was able to perform so well above expectations. But what is clear is that Erdoğan now has the advantage for the probable runoff elections on 28 May. His rightwing, ultraconservative alliance has secured a majority in parliament, and voters may shy away from electing a president that will not have the necessary legislative backing. Disappointment and disillusionment on the opposition side may eat into the second Kılıçdaroğlu vote.

 

But those that risk losing even more than they already have are civil society groups, human rights defenders, the Kurds, women and the LGBTQ+ community. It stands to reason that the crackdown on human and cultural rights will intensify if Erdoğan remains president at the helm of an alliance that has already forced Turkey’s exit from the Istanbul convention, the international contract that aims to protect women against gender-based violence and discrimination, with the argument that such a contract “violated Turkey’s family values”. Kingmaker Sinan Oğan – the far-right presidential candidate who has garnered a little more than 5% of the vote – ran on a ticket of anti-Kurdish and anti-immigration sentiment that will heavily shape the coming two weeks and the discourse of both presidential candidates.

 

Thousands of people who have tweeted criticism of Erdoğan and his government in the runup to the elections may find themselves the target of criminal prosecution on charges of having “insulted the president”. More journalists may end up behind bars. Kurdish politicians and human rights defenders jailed on bogus terrorism and conspiracy charges will remain in prison. The already very small space left to civil society will shrink even further.

 

These elections have been framed as a dispute over the future of Turkey, a contest between democracy and autocracy. For those defending rights and justice for everyone in the country, this battle may just have entered its last round.

 

Constanze Letsch is a former Turkey correspondent for the Guardian and has recently finished a PhD on urban renewal in Istanbul