A Wartime
Economy
Germany Needs to Give Vaccine Production a Shot
in the Arm
It only took pharmaceuticals producer BioNTech a few
months to set up a new vaccine factory in Germany. Berlin should use the case
as an example in efforts to boost production of the medicines urgently needed
to stop the COVID-19 pandemic.
By Kristina
Gnirke, Martin U. Müller, Thomas Schulz und Gerald Traufetter
08.02.2021,
21.43 Uhr
Hope is
arising between an environmentalist center and the mausoleum of German Nobel
Prize laureate Emil von Behring. It can be found in handful of factory halls
and administrative buildings on the outskirts of the German city of Marburg.
Some of them are more than 100 years old, from the time when the factory was
used to manufacture the first medicines used to treat tetanus. Now, the German
biotech firm BioNTech is converting the site for the production of its COVID-19
vaccine. Beginning in March, the plant is expected to produce around 70 million
doses a week.
The plant
was built in the record time of just a few months. Whenever the debate crops up
these days about how and when Germany is finally going to get more vaccine
supplies, the discussion always leads to the plant in Marburg. It could become
a blueprint, a model for the future. In theory, at least. In practice, Europe
lacks production capacity to manufacture sufficient vaccine – and not just for
the next few months, but also for the second half of the year and for the years
to come. This is becoming clearer with each passing week. Marburg will do
little to change that.
For months,
the government in Berlin has stubbornly stuck to its claim that Germany has
already ordered enough vaccine. It may take a little longer to vaccinate
everyone, Chancellor Angela Merkel explained last week, but the first
vaccination should be available to everyone by the end of September. Deliveries
of 323 million doses of COVID-19 vaccines are expected for Germany by the end
of the year. Probably.
But the
past few weeks have shown that the probability is high that there will be
repeated setbacks in vaccine acquisition and administration. Supply problems
can suddenly lead to shortfalls of millions of doses. Meanwhile, mutated
variants of the coronavirus are spreading faster and faster and could even make
a third dose necessary. Or even an entirely new vaccine at some point.
Leading
economists are therefore calling for expanded production capacities, spurred by
the state. They argue that billions need to be invested in additional factories
so that Germany can at least be safe from the pandemic by the end of the year.
This would mean placing yet another burden on the already strained national
budget. On the other hand, each month of the pandemic results in costs of 420
billion euros to the global economy.
This has
led Markus Söder, a conservative politician and the powerful governor of
Bavaria, and the Robert Habeck, the co-head of the Green Party, to unanimously
call for a government intervention that would lead to additional pharmaceutical
production by decree. Even European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen,
who has come under fire for the EU’s procurement debacle, is proposing the
repurposing of existing production facilities with money from the EU budget.
But would
it really be good for the government to directly intervene? German Health
Minister Jens Spahn would prefer to have companies themselves provide the
necessary supplies.
Economists,
however, don’t think it will be possible without the government stepping in and
playing a role. They argue that the government needs to provide manufacturers
with incentives, drive and direct assistance – a carrot and stick approach.
"Building
up production capacity is extremely expensive,” says Marcel Fratzscher,
president of the German Institute for Economic Research. Companies don’t just
take those kinds of risks, especially if they are listed on the stock exchange.
If the
first half of the year can no longer be saved, Fratzscher argues, then the
state needs to act now to help make up for lost progress in vaccinations.
"In this case, it’s delusional to think that the market can fix the
situation on its own.”
But
opinions differ over how the government can best help. Clemens Fuest, the
president of the Ifo Institute, a renowned economic think tank in Munich,
suggests incentivizing pharmaceuticals with hefty bonuses. "A dose
delivered three months early could well be worth hundreds of euros to society.”
Moritz
Schularick, a professor of economics at the University of Bonn, believes we
have reached a point "where financial incentives alone are no longer
sufficient – that production must be organized as an emergency, a quasi-wartime
economy.” In other words, the government needs to force companies to act.
But how
quickly can production be ramped up in Germany? "You could get a lot done
in three months. In six months, you would almost certainly have more production
capacity,” says Gerhard Winter, a professor of pharmaceutical technology at the
University of Munich.
He believes
it makes sense to accelerate the production of mRNA vaccines in particular.
That would take less time that setting up vector vaccine factories like those
needed by AstraZeneca. Such factories require bioreactors, which take very long
to build.
The
production of mRNA vaccines is also complex, but it is easier to accelerate the
process, which happens in three steps. First, the mRNA has to be produced. This
is currently happening at the German bio-pharmaceutical companies BioNTech and
CureVac, whose mRNA vaccine is still in the testing phase. Pharmaceutical
expert Winter says that if they aren’t able to produce sufficient capacities,
they could also contract others to expand capacities. "You don’t need
gigantic buildings for this, smaller manufacturing plants can do the job as
well.”
There is
currently no shortage of mRNA – there are stockpiles of it. However, there is a
lack of a sufficient amount of two synthetic modules that are required for the
further processing of mRNA. In the second step, these synthetic modules have to
be encapsulated in nanoparticles containing fat. They are currently being
imported the United States.
In the
final step, the vaccine has to be filled aseptically. The biggest challenge
here is that highly trained staff are required to do the job. If a single
vaccine dose is exposed to germs, the entire factory might have to be shut down
for a thorough cleaning.
Small
specialists, like the Austrian family-owned company Polymun, are under particular
pressure. The company fuses mRNA with nanoparticles. About 16 employees working
in several clean rooms handle the liposome production for four different mRNA
vaccine projects. At the end of the process, sterile disposable containers with
a total of about 80 liters of mRNA packed in lipid nanoparticles leave the
factory. One delivery is enough for just under one million doses and is taken
to the Pfizer plant in Puurs, Belgium, by small truck.
"The
complexity is in having to ramp everything up simultaneously," says
Polymun CEO Dietmar Katinger. "It’s lipids that are lacking at the moment.
Tomorrow it could be something else."
At worst,
mRNA may have to be discarded because there aren’t enough lipids arriving or
there is a shortage of the bags used to ship them.
If the
active ingredient can be delivered, there is no shortage of companies that can
fill the dose vials. Novartis has said it would like to manufacture for
BioNTech. French pharmaceuticals giant Sanofi, which has suffered massive
setbacks in the development of its own vaccine, has also said it would produce
for the German company.
But offers
for help on the production of the raw materials aren't quite as plentiful.
Nevertheless, at some point this year Novartis is planning to start producing
mRNA. CureVac has joined forces with German pharmaceutical company Bayer. It
will take until the end of the year to convert a plant suitable for the job in
Wuppertal, Germany.
"The
complexity is in having to ramp everything up simultaneously."
Polymun CEO
Dietmar Katinger
This also
underscores the fundamental problem with COVID-19 vaccine production:
Pharmaceutical giants themselves can’t simply flip a switch and go from the
production of cancer drugs to vaccines, even at plants that are technically
suitable. Nonetheless, the German government currently prefers to leave it
largely up to manufacturers to ramp up capacity. At most, it has expressed a
willingness to help with syringes for administering vaccine or chemical
products.
But the
German government has been cautious about direct investments in manufacturing.
Last year, the German government invested 300 million euros in CureVac, but it
didn’t impose any concrete conditions. The federal government now owns shares
in the company, but the company hasn’t built any new factory.
Moving
forward the Economics and Health Ministries in Berlin would prefer to provide
purchase guarantees with a term of four or five years with the companies. Their
hope is that the investment in new production facilities could pay off for the
companies in that amount of time.
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