Haste Ye Back! How Scotland could return to the
EU
A newly independent nation would face significant
hurdles on the road to Brussels but none looks insurmountable.
Sturgeon would have to overcome many hurdles before
she could arrive in Brussels to present a membership application |
BY HANS VON
DER BURCHARD
May 10,
2021 4:00 am
https://www.politico.eu/article/haste-ye-back-how-scotland-could-rejoin-the-european-union/
The
election victory of pro-independence parties in Scotland is an urgent issue for
one union — the U.K. — but it may also pose important questions down the line
for another: the EU.
First
Minister Nicola Sturgeon’s Scottish National Party (SNP) and the Scottish
Greens, which together claimed an absolute majority of seats in the Scottish
Parliament, both stood on a platform of an independent Scotland joining the
European Union.
Sturgeon
would have to overcome many hurdles before she could arrive in Brussels to
present a membership application. She’d have to secure another legal
independence vote — which the U.K. government has so far refused to grant — and
win it. The independence camp lost the last referendum by more than 10
percentage points in 2014 and polls suggest Scots are currently evenly split on
the issue.
But if that
moment does arrive, how would the EU treat such an application? And what
advantages and disadvantages would an independent Scotland have in seeking
membership?
A
membership bid from Edinburgh would present the EU with a unique case — a
country that had already been inside the bloc as part of an ex-member state
asking to rejoin the fold. But, in legal terms, that context wouldn’t matter:
Scotland would have to follow the same procedure of applying for membership as
any other country, as set out under Article 49 of the bloc’s treaties.
Although
there are a number of countries already waiting in line — mainly Western Balkan
nations that applied years ago — things could go much faster in the Scottish
case.
“Scotland
would be assessed like any other candidate country for the state of its democracy,
the state of its economy. And in many ways that looks quite positive,” Kirsty
Hughes, director of the Scottish Centre on European Relations think tank, told
POLITICO’s EU Confidential podcast.
“You can
compare it to the Western Balkans and say, ‘Look, a long-standing democracy …
it’s got its own parliament, it’s got its own legal system, it’s got its own
education system separate from that of the rest of the U.K.,'” Hughes said.
However, an
independent Scotland would have to set up new institutions such as a central
bank, a foreign ministry and various regulatory bodies — and the EU would have
to be convinced they met the bloc’s standards and were robust and resilient.
Some of the
most serious scrutiny an independent Scotland would face from the EU would be
on economics and public finances.
A recent
study by the U.K.-based Institute for Government think tank concluded an
independent Scotland risks starting out with a much higher deficit than would
normally be allowed under EU rules.
The SNP has
suggested Scotland would continue to use the British pound, even without the
permission of U.K. authorities. It’s at least questionable whether the EU would
be happy with a member state using the currency of a non-member, particularly
the U.K. (The EU requires new members to commit to joining the euro — even if
some have yet to adopt it after many years of membership.)
“Of course,
any instability, be it of political, economic or fiscal nature, would reduce
the appetite for enlargement on the EU side,” said Fabian Zuleeg, chief
executive of the European Policy Centre think tank in Brussels.
He added
that Brussels would also want to make sure that Scotland becomes a net
contributor to the EU budget instead of an economic or fiscal problem child.
“Here the
Scottish government has some homework to do to make sure everything goes
smoothly,” Zuleeg said. “However, in principle, there is no reason to believe
that Scotland could not act independently economically and be financially
stable.”
And on the
political front, Zuleeg said there would be plenty of goodwill from the EU.
“We are
talking here about a part of the United Kingdom that, also because of Brexit,
seeks independence and wants to belong to the EU value community,” Zuleeg said.
“And in this respect, I think the mood on the EU side is rather positive.”
He
suggested an independent Scotland might be able to conclude membership
negotiations in two to three years, similar to Finland’s accession process in
the mid-1990s.
Everybody
expects the Spanish inquisition
Despite
that general goodwill, Scotland would first have to pass a crucial hurdle:
winning the blessing of all EU countries, as approval to start membership talks
requires unanimity from current members.
Spain, in
particular, has long been wary of any treatment of Scotland that could
encourage independence movements within its own borders, such as those in
Catalonia or the Basque country.
Ignacio
Molina, a senior analyst at the Elcano Royal Institute, a Madrid-based think
tank, said it would be crucial for Spain that any Scottish secession is legal
under U.K. law, and not declared unilaterally as Catalonia’s regional
government tried to do in 2017.
Madrid
will, however, likely demand certain assurances: “What the Spanish diplomacy
has always underlined is that Scotland would need to apply as any other
candidate, with no shortcuts or privileges, such as for example an opt-out from
the euro currency or the Schengen zone,” Molina said.
Part of
this “no privileges” approach, Molina said, is that Spain wouldn’t accept the
EU giving any assurances to Scotland ahead of an independence referendum that
it has a guaranteed path to membership, as was recently demanded in an open
letter by more than 170 cultural figures from across the EU.
Divergence
difficulties
Another
more technical hurdle for a swift accession to the EU is the U.K.’s desire
post-Brexit to diverge from certain EU rules, for example on food safety and
animal welfare, partly to have more flexibility to strike trade deals with
countries such as the United States.
A potential
independence date of 2026 floated by the SNP “is only five years away, but how
much might Scotland and the rest of the U.K. have diverged in EU regulation by
then?” asked Hughes. “And how long will it take to come back?”
The issue
raises big questions about how a border between an independent Scotland —
inside the EU — and the U.K. — which would remain outside — would work. The
continuing wrangling over the border between the Republic of Ireland and
Northern Ireland shows just how vexing those questions can be.
Scotland
would also have to find a way to bridge the gap between leaving the U.K., and
thereby the EU-U.K. trade deal, and joining the EU and its single market.
One
temporary solution to avoid the imposition of crippling tariffs for Scottish
businesses could be to negotiate a transition phase with both the EU and U.K.,
during which Scotland remains a member of the post-Brexit trade deal between
London and Brussels despite having left the U.K.
However,
there would be many technical challenges and potential trade frictions if the
U.K., for example, diverges from EU standards while Scotland at the same time
tries to converge as part of its membership bid. Ultimately, Scotland might
have to rely on complicated patchwork solutions to try to preserve both its
trade with the rest of the EU as well as across a future Scottish-British
border.
David
McAllister, a German Christian Democrat with Scottish roots who chairs the
European Parliament’s foreign affairs committee, said there are “many
uncertainties” about the conditions under which Scotland could potentially
leave the United Kingdom.
“So, at the
moment, this is a purely inner-Scottish and inner-U.K. matter” that EU
officials are not keen to comment on, said McAllister, speaking a few days
ahead of the Scottish election.
“But should
they become an independent state, they could apply for membership like any
European country that is committed to share and promote the EU’s values. And we
would scrutinize all the challenging political, economic and juridical issues
like with any other candidate country.”
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