Ursula von
der Leyen struggles to stay in the saddle
Is
Commission president-elect isolated, paranoid and stumbling, or just keeping a
strategically low profile?
By DAVID M.
HERSZENHORN 10/17/19, 5:00 AM CET Updated 10/17/19, 5:06 AM CET
Ursula von
der Leyen has largely stayed under the radar since being confirmed as the
incoming European Commission president | Andreas Rentz/Getty Images
Ursula von
der Leyen loves horses, but political horse-trading or show-jumping? Not so
much.
Since her
confirmation by a narrow vote in the European Parliament in July, the European
Commission’s president-elect — a former German defense minister and close ally
of Angela Merkel — has hunkered down with a small coterie of aides to prepare
her five-year term, appearing little in public and saying even less.
Her low
profile has prompted some Commission officials and others in the Brussels
Bubble to accuse von der Leyen of adopting a bunker mentality, rather than
building bridges with the organization she will soon run, as well as diplomats
and MEPs. Officials close to her transition team say such criticism is
unfounded and stems from the inevitable insecurity that grips any large
organization during a change of leadership.
With the
exception of one marathon press conference in early September to announce the
nominees for her College of Commissioners and their roles, von der Leyen has
largely stayed under the radar — even when one of her chosen portfolio titles,
a vice presidency for “protecting our European way of life,” was criticized as
a dog whistle to the far right. She even kept her counsel after French
President Emmanuel Macron last week accused her of misleading him about the
prospects of his Commission nominee, Sylvie Goulard, who was rejected by MEPs
over ethical concerns, setting off what Paris called an “institutional crisis.”
The
Parliament’s rejection of Goulard — whom Macron had envisioned as a sort of
super-commissioner overseeing the EU’s internal market and industrial policy —
as well as the Romanian and Hungarian nominees, means von der Leyen will be in
limbo beyond her scheduled start date of November 1. She now looks likely to
take office on December 2 at the earliest — and some EU diplomats argue that
she’ll begin as the weakest Commission president in a generation, compounding
an impression created by her status as the first EU chief in 25 years not to
have served as a head of government.
“How do you
know who can be trusted?" — An official close to the EU transition process
“If she was
weak before,” one diplomat said after Macron castigated her over Goulard’s
rejection, “can you imagine how weak she is now?
Von der
Leyen’s stealth approach leads some Commission insiders to depict her as
isolated, struggling to find her footing, “paranoid” about the continuing
influence of former Secretary-General Martin Selmayr — whom she forced out to
win her own confirmation in Parliament — and distrustful of her executive vice
presidents, especially Frans Timmermans, a Dutchman who campaigned for the
Commission presidency for the Party of European Socialists.
Timmermans
and his supporters make no secret of their view that he was robbed of the
presidency by Merkel, Macron and other national leaders on the European
Council. They also complain that von der Leyen undermined a carefully
constructed triumvirate proposed by the Council by unexpectedly elevating a
fellow member of the conservative European People’s Party, Latvia’s Valdis
Dombrovskis, to a third “executive vice presidency” along with Timmermans and
the Danish liberal Margrethe Vestager.
Other
critics say von der Leyen has been slow to assemble her team, relying mainly on
two trusted aides she brought with her from Berlin, Bjoern Seibert and Jens
Flosdorff, and the acting secretary-general, Ilze Juhansone, a former Latvian
ambassador to the EU who was elevated after Selmayr’s resignation.
Frans
Timmermans believes he should have the top Commission job
Von der
Leyen has yet to formally name a chief of staff, and has announced only two
hires: Eric Mamer, a veteran French official, to serve as her chief spokesman;
and Dana Spinant, who will be Mamer’s deputy. Meanwhile, Juhansone, acting at
Seibert’s behest, has effectively put a stop to any hiring for senior positions
throughout the Commission’s directorates general.
“The
combination of no secretary-general, a skeleton Commission service, a head of
the president’s cabinet with no Brussels experience and paranoid tendencies,
plus all these new commissioners and three experienced party-political first
executive vice presidents, looks like a perfect storm,” said one senior
Commission official.
But an
official close to the transition said halting the hiring process was a
no-brainer. “How do you know who is any good?” the official said. “How do you
know who can be trusted?”
‘Everybody
is nervous’
With
departing commissioners and their Cabinet chiefs intent on finding new posts
for their favored personnel, transition officials said von der Leyen’s team had
no choice but to put a halt to hiring, so that they could vet candidates and
make sure officials hired for top jobs fit with her priorities. In von der
Leyen’s vision of a “geopolitical Commission,” the portfolios of many
commissioners will overlap by design, which will require teamwork but may also
raise the risk of internal conflict.
“Everybody
is waiting, everybody is nervous,” said a senior aide to an outgoing
commissioner, confirming that many veteran officials were anxious about where
they might land in the new Commission. “Some people have been interviewed,” the
aide said. “Many have not.”
Another
Commission official said some of the criticism was just sour grapes.
“There has
been some frustration in the Commission because she has rejected some good
people for her team,” this official said. “She’s sticking to the faithful
lieutenants she brought from Berlin. There are many pitfalls here in town. Some
... are questioning whether those people know how to navigate around them.”
“This means
the von der Leyen Commission will not be operationally effective until at least
next Easter" — A senior Commission official
The
official close to the transition also played down talk of the lingering
influence of Selmayr, the close confidant of outgoing Commission President
Jean-Claude Juncker with a Machiavellian reputation. He is about to resurface
as the EU representative in Austria, though the official also hinted that
Selmayr is not entirely out of mind, saying: “Probably he is still directing
some things with a remote control from Vienna.”
Officials
close to von der Leyen camp questioned the accuracy of depictions that she was
isolated, noting that she is meeting weekly with Juncker, even more frequently
with the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator, Michel Barnier, as well as with national
leaders and key ministers across Europe.
Von der
Leyen’s supporters described comparisons to Juncker’s transition as unfair,
given that she arrived as an outsider, while Juncker’s campaign staff when he
ran for the top job in 2014 was comprised largely of Commission insiders led by
Selmayr.
Juncker, a
conservative like von der Leyen, enjoyed a close friendship with his main
Socialist rival, Martin Schulz, who after the 2014 European election returned
to his post as Parliament president. That allowed the pair to form a “grand
coalition” that ensured a majority for Juncker’s policy priorities.
By
contrast, von der Leyen must grapple with a more diverse and divided Parliament
with no majority for the conservatives and Socialists, requiring her to work
with the liberal Renew Europe and the Greens. Where Schulz could quickly give
Juncker a read on the pulse of Parliament, von der Leyen’s aides complain that
they need to consult a half-dozen MEPs to get a sense of the mood in Renew
Europe alone.
Still, even
if von der Leyen faces a challenging political landscape, some Commission
insiders said that at her current pace it would likely take until next spring
before her team was fully in gear — especially given the delay in confirming
the final three commissioners and a likely December 1 start, only to be
interrupted shortly after by the Christmas holiday.
“This means
the von der Leyen Commission will not be operationally effective until at least
next Easter. And in the meantime, the Commission will be incredibly weak,” the
senior Commission official said.
Managing
Macron
Supporters
of von der Leyen argued that she has to move judiciously, while critics can
carp loudly from the sidelines. They rejected assertions that she should have
lobbied more proactively for the failed Commission nominees in Parliament,
contending that it would have jeopardized her credibility as an honest broker
among the different political groups and her effort to show respect for
Parliament’s institutional role.
Von der
Leyen’s allies said Macron had clearly miscalculated in pushing the nomination
of Goulard, and that she would not take the bait by responding to his public
lashing out. Von der Leyen met with Macron in Paris on Monday, and while she
posted a picture of them together walking on the crimson and gold steps at
Elysée Palace, she characteristically did not issue any statement. A spokesman
said it was a “good and constructive conversation” that lasted about an hour, in a “very good
atmosphere.”
But by the
end of the meeting, Macron had still not put forward a new nominee, suggesting
the Goulard mess was not yet fully resolved and leaving a crucial component of
von der Leyen’s College of Commissioners still missing.
Some EU
officials and diplomats more skeptical of the president-elect see signs that
her low-profile approach may continue after she takes office. This would be in
keeping with the way she operated in Berlin as defense minister, and prior to
that as labor minister and as family affairs minister, they said.
In Germany,
von der Leyen relied on a tight circle of closely trusted aides, and showed
little interest in interacting with journalists, reinforcing her upper-class,
aloof image, they said. Expectations that she will not change her habits in
Brussels were reinforced by news that she plans to sleep in small living
quarters next to her office on the 13th floor of the Berlaymont, the Commission
HQ — just as she did in Berlin.
However,
von der Leyen did venture out of her small suite of transition offices this
week to attend the first meeting of the European Parliament’s “Horse Group”
organized by MEPs who, like the president-elect, are equestrians. Von der Leyen
said she had considered canceling the meeting because of a surprisingly busy
agenda — but decided that outreach to members of Parliament was crucial.
“Of course
you all know that I am passionate ... on the topic of horses" — Ursula von
der Leyen, European Commission president-elect
“I wanted
to keep this meeting because I think it is important to get in touch with all
of you as I’m speaking to different groups within the Parliament,” she said.
“Of course
you all know that I am passionate ... on the topic of horses,” she told the
MEPs, adding that riding was a symbol “for prosperity,” “for a sustainable
world” for “integrity” and “unity of mankind and animals.”
Some MEPs
and Parliament officials have said similar outreach — before and during the
recent confirmation process — might have helped save Goulard’s nomination.
In any
event, there’s an undoubtedly useful lesson in horseback riding for anyone serving
as Commission president: First and foremost it’s all about staying in the
saddle.
Jacopo
Barigazzi, Maïa de la Baume and Hans von der Burchard contributed reporting.
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