Brexit
'super Saturday': your guide to the big day
Time for a deal? MPs to sit on Saturday for
first time since Falklands conflict to vote on Brexit agreement. Composite: The
Guardian design team
With MPs
meeting on a Saturday for the first time since the Falklands conflict, how will
the day unfold and what does it all mean?
by Peter
Walker
Fri 18 Oct
2019 13.32 BSTFirst published on Fri 18 Oct 2019 13.15 BST
After over
three years of parliamentary events touted as momentous, we will get one that
definitely lives up to the billing – the first Saturday sitting of the Commons
since the Falklands conflict, in which there will be a potentially knife-edge
vote on a plan that could shape the UK’s future for a generation.
What is the
schedule for Saturday?
The Commons
convenes at 9.30am with a statement from Boris Johnson on the Brexit deal he
has negotiated with the EU, followed by questions.
The motion
on the deal follows afterwards, to be opened by another minister. It is only
when this debate begins that we will know which amendments have been selected
for a vote by the Speaker, John Bercow.
The number of
amendments will affect the length of the process, so the key vote could come
any time from mid-afternoon to early evening. If the government loses the vote,
the prime minister could then seek a vote on leaving without a deal, which is
the only other way to avoid the so-called Benn Act – the backbench-created law
that would compel Johnson to seek a Brexit extension if his deal is not passed
or no deal is not approved.
Will there
be amendments?
Some have
already been tabled, for example one to extend the Brexit deadline. Another
amendment has been tabled to secure a second referendum, but this would be
attached to the no-deal motion, so seems unlikely to go to a vote.
Will there
definitely be an all-or-nothing vote?
The big
decision could actually be delayed again. A potentially key amendment tabled by
Oliver Letwin, Hilary Benn and others would withhold full approval for the
Brexit deal until all the associated legislation was passed.
This would
seem likely to require another extension, and would delay the real moment of
truth for MPs. One reason for this amendment would be to prevent the
possibility of hardline Brexit Conservatives approving the deal – thus removing
the conditions of the Benn Act – but then voting down the subsequent withdrawal
agreement bill, which implements the legally binding treaty, and so forcing no
deal anyway.
Labour is
understood to be likely to back this amendment, and former Tory MPs including
Amber Rudd and David Gauke have said they would vote for it.
Will MPs
know the full implications of the deal?
Not really.
The deal was cobbled together and agreed with the EU in a huge rush, and MPs
will have only a few hours of debate in the Commons before making a hugely
important decision. Downing Street has said MPs will not see official economic
impact assessments of the plan in advance, despite some requesting this.
What
happens if the plan passes?
If it
passes unamended, this would still be the first stage of the process, and even
with Downing Street promising that MPs would work around the clock as needed,
there is no guarantee everything will be done by 31 October. No 10 would hope
to present the bill to the Commons as early as Monday. If the deal motion is
amended, for example by the Letwin-Benn plan, a delay to departure is more
likely.
Do we get
no deal if the plan is rejected?
Most likely
not, even though Johnson seems set to frame the vote in these terms, and the
European commission president, Jean-Claude Juncker, briefly startled
remain-minded MPs by telling reporters he did not think another Brexit
extension would be granted. EU sources have said that if Johnson’s deal is
rejected, meaning the Benn Act would come into force, they would not reject a
UK request for another extension.
Which MPs
are key to whether it passes?
DUP deputy
leader, Nigel Dodds, and leader, Arlene Foster, have said they won’t back the
deal.
The DUP
deputy leader, Nigel Dodds, and leader, Arlene Foster, have said they won’t
back the deal. Photograph: Rebecca Black/PA
With the
DUP definitely against the deal, and a number of the former Tory MPs who lost
the whip last month seemingly onboard, two groups will be vital. First are the
so-called “Spartans”, the most hardline of Tory Brexiters. Some of these have
already said they would back the bill, and others could follow – but with the
DUP opposed, this is still a finely balanced decision.
The other
group set to be endlessly pestered by Johnson’s team are Labour MPs from
leave-voting areas who support a deal, such as Caroline Flint, Stephen Kinnock
and others. They face intense Labour pressure to vote against it, but could
still potentially be persuaded the vote the other way. These MPs might be more
likely to back the deal if it was amended via the Letwin-Benn plan.
So will it
pass – and if so, is it all over?
On the
first point – no one knows. The final tally could come within a couple of
votes. It is worth remembering that Theresa May’s defeats on her Brexit deal
ended up being heavier than expected. However, some momentum seem to be with
Johnson. As to the second question: no, not at all. Even if the deal is passed,
this is but the first step in a long parliamentary process, which would in turn
shape an evolving and still very controversial departure process over many
years. Prepare for much, much more of this.
MPs to
watch
Steve
Baker: the Tory hard Brexiters’ club, the European Research Group, meets first
thing on Saturday. Whichever way Baker, its chair, chooses to vote, will be a
key indicator for the choice of the other Spartans.
Steve Baker
The ERG
chair, Steve Baker, is likely to be a key indicator for the Spartans’ voting
intentions. Photograph: Jonathan Brady/PA
Philip
Hammond: on the other side of the Tory divide, the former chancellor is
prominent among the sizeable group of rebel MPs who lost the whip last month,
who could go either way.
Caroline
Flint: co-leader of the “MPs for a deal” grouping, Flint is a leading member of
the Labour contingent who believe the UK should leave sooner rather than later.
If she backs Johnson’s deal she could take others with her.
Norman
Lamb: while the rest of the Liberal Democrats are firmly against the deal, Lamb
– who will step down at the next election – has long been much more
Brexit-minded than his colleagues. He is believed to still be deciding, and
while it will only be one vote, this could be crucial.
Norman Lamb
Norman Lamb
is said to be still deciding how to vote. Photograph: Matt Cardy/Getty Images
Pundits to
follow
Catherine
Haddon: fellow at the Institute for Government and self-described
“constitutional agony aunt”.
Anand
Menon: politics academic-turned head of the UK in a Changing Europe thinktank.
Steve
Peers: Essex University EU law professor and outlet for well-informed,
remain-minded analysis.
Ruth Fox:
as head of the Hansard Society, the independent authority on parliamentary
matters, she is a good bet for procedural conundrums.
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