The other loser in the French elections
President Emmanuel Macron had a bad night, but so did
far-right leader Marine Le Pen.
By JOHN
LICHFIELD 7/1/20, 4:05 AM CET
John
Lichfield is a former foreign editor of the Independent and was the newspaper’s
Paris correspondent for 20 years.
CALVADOS,
France — Marine Le Pen has tried to put a brave face on the results of the
belated second round of the French municipal elections last weekend.
She described
the results as a “truly great victory,” pointing to the success of her former
boyfriend, Louis Aliot, in the southern city of Perpignan — the biggest prize
to be captured by the far right since 1995.
The far
right’s success there is “not only a symbolic triumph but a real breakthrough,”
said Le Pen, one that will provide a springboard for triumph in regional
elections next year — and presumably position her for another assault on the
presidency the year after.
But while
President Emmanuel Macron is a clear loser from the election — which saw his
centrist La République En Marche party take a beating at the hands of the
Greens in several major cities — Le Pen doesn’t come out looking much better.
In mayoral
races, Le Pen’s party captured three towns and lost two.
The capture
of Perpignan was indeed a coup for Aliot and for the far right, but it was at
best a qualified, bitter-tasting victory for Le Pen.
Aliot, Le
Pen’s romantic partner until last year, chose not to run as a candidate for her
National Rally party. The party’s name and symbol did not appear on his
posters.
He ran as
the leader of a wider, hard-right alliance and kept Le Pen at arm's length from
his campaign. Instead, he appeared publicly with Robert Menard, the successful,
independent far-right mayor of nearby Béziers and a frequent critic of Le Pen.
Aliot’s
tactics were based on those of Menard, not those of his ex-partner. He stressed
local issues and anti-Parisian, southern pride and anger, rather than a
visceral rejection of Macron or fear of “political Islam.”
There’s
little for Le Pen to celebrate in National Rally’s wider performance either.
The party,
which regards itself as the principal opposition to a “stumbling” and
“unpopular” president, hoped to build on its first place in the European
election in May 2019 and the original anti-Macron Yellow Jackets revolt in the
countryside and outer suburbs.
But it also
faced financial problems, caused partly by the recall of a Russian loan, which
meant that it had to concentrate on 262 local races, compared with 369 in 2014.
The party’s
troubles took a toll. In the 2014 municipal elections, National Rally — then
called National Front — took 1,438 council seats in 463 towns. On Sunday, it
took 840 seats in 258 towns.
In mayoral
races, Le Pen’s party captured three towns and lost two. It also failed to
preserve its much-prized hold on a district town hall in Marseille.
These
results are deeply disappointing for the would-be ruler of France — a fact
recognized within the party. National Rally officials say publicly that no huge
weight should be placed on such a “chaotic” election, with a turnout of only 41
percent and a second round delayed for more than three months by the
coronavirus lockdown.
Privately,
they look jealously at the big-city successes of the Greens, a party with only
four full-time national officials. National Rally officials have been
complaining anonymously to French media about Le Pen’s poor performance during
the epidemic and her disastrous attempt this month to gatecrash the 80th
anniversary of former President Charles de Gaulle’s London appeal for French
resistance against the Nazis.
She was
booed when she turned up at the island of Sein in Brittany, from which De
Gaulle escaped to England in 1940. In any case, many traditionalists in the
party still detest De Gaulle and trace their antecedents to the pro-German
Vichy regime or cause of French settlers in Algeria allegedly “betrayed” by le
général in 1962.
Internal
party critics say that Le Pen is floundering at a time when Macron’s unpopularity
and the coronavirus crisis mean that she should be flying high. A recent poll
looking at her chances for the 2022 presidential election suggested that she
would reach the second round once again, but then lose, also once again if
somewhat less definitively, to Macron.
“The
problem is that she is surrounded by third-raters,” one party insider
complained in an interview with the BFMTV website.
It is much
too early to write Le Pen off. A challenge to her leadership of the party
before 2022 is nearly unthinkable. National Rally remains a considerable
national force at a time when French politics is splintering and
re-splintering.
Le Pen’s
National Rally and Macron’s La République en Marche share similar strengths and
weaknesses.
The Greens
are now a force in big-city politics, but past experience suggests that they
will struggle to become relevant at the national level.
All the
same, Le Pen’s poor performance — and her former boyfriend’s success — on
Sunday is a sign of the times: It shows the far right is not immune to the
splintering of French politics.
Le Pen’s
National Rally and Macron’s La République en Marche share similar strengths and
weaknesses.
Both are
national movements with strong national leaders, which have failed to grow
grass roots in local politics.
Both are
unlikely to suffer from an internal coup, but both are vulnerable to be
disrupted by challenges from outside their party.
For Le Pen,
her niece Marion Maréchal is already a potential rival. So, increasingly, is
the journalist-turned-mayor Robert Menard in Béziers.
To them
should now be added Louis Aliot in Perpignan.
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