What the US exiting the Paris climate agreement
means
Donald Trump is taking the US out of the global pact
on 4 November – so how will this affect the rest of the world?
Emily
Holden in Washington
Mon 27 Jul
2020 08.00 BSTLast modified on Mon 27 Jul 2020 17.37 BST
The world
will be watching the US presidential election on Tuesday 3 November, but just
24 hours later is another hugely consequential news event when the US will
formally leave the Paris climate agreement.
The Trump
administration set the withdrawal in motion with a letter to the UN, and, in a
coincidence of timing, the US will exit the day after the election, joining
Iran and Turkey as the only major countries not to participate in the
agreement.
What is the
Paris climate agreement?
After
decades of negotiations, all 197 nations in the world agreed to voluntarily cut
the heat-trapping pollution that is causing the climate crisis. Only a handful
have not ratified the deal.
It is seen
by many as the minimum effort the world needs to make on cutting emissions –
but it still took a monumental diplomatic push to clinch the deal.
It came
together in Paris in 2015, under the United Nations Framework Convention on
Climate Change. The US negotiating team – including the then secretary of
state, John Kerry – scrambled to try to Republican-proof the agreement.
President
Obama, who was part of 11th-hour efforts calling round other world leaders to
join, said in his address “we met the moment”, called it a turning point, while
acknowledging more would need to be done.
The
agreement’s official goal is to keep the world from becoming 2C hotter than
before industrialization. But its ambition is to limit heating to 1.5C, a
best-case-scenario scientists see slipping out of reach.
Each
country agreed to set its own targets and report back on progress.
So is the
agreement working?
There have
been some achievements in cutting emissions but the work countries have done so
far is not enough to limit the temperature rise to 2C. The world is already
about 1C hotter than the pre-industrial period.
Despite the
Paris agreement, it is on track to become around 3C hotter. Already, humans are
suffering from what they have done to disrupt the climate. And yet more heating
will trigger more intense heatwaves, faster sea-level rise that will flood
major cities, and more extreme weather disasters that will strain government
responses.
What will
happen if Donald Trump is re-elected?
Trump held
a news conference in the White House’s Rose Garden in June 2017 when he vowed
to exit the agreement, saying it was unfair to the US, which would leave and
then start negotiations to re-enter it or a new accord “on terms that are fair
to the United States”.
“I was
elected to represent the citizens of Pittsburgh, not Paris,” he said (the mayor
of Pittsburgh responded by saying the city stood with Paris).
Trump,
though, could not immediately leave the agreement – he can do so only after the
November election, in a quirk of timing.
So on 4
November 2019, the US began the year-long process to pull out of the deal,
sending the United Nations notification that it would formally withdraw on 4
November 2020.
What will
the world look like if humankind fails, and heating soars beyond 2C?
In just a
2C hotter world, according to an analysis of 70 peer-reviewed studies by Carbon
Brief:
Seas could
rise an average of 56cm, or nearly 2ft.
30m people
in coastal areas could be flooded each year by 2055.
Thirty-seven
per cent of the population could face a severe heatwave at least every five
years.
388m people
could be exposed to water scarcity and 195m will be exposed to severe drought.
Maize crop
yields could fall 9% by 2100.
The global
per-capita GDP could fall 13% by 2100.
During the
last four years, Trump’s administration has undermined international climate
efforts by aggressively supporting fossil fuels. Domestically, Trump has
rescinded or weakened essentially all the major regulations that were meant to
encourage a shift away from oil, gas and coal, and toward cleaner sources of
energy. He has eliminated Obama-era rules requiring lower-carbon electricity
and cars. He has expanded opportunities for drilling and mining.
What will
happen if Trump wins re-election?
With
another four years as president, Trump could lock in those changes, further delaying
action at a time when scientists say it is urgently needed.
The US
promised to cut emissions 26% to 28% below 2005 levels by 2025. The reductions
were meant to be just the beginning of US efforts.
Depending
on how deeply the economy is hit by the Covid-19 pandemic, the US could see its
emissions drop between 20% and 27% below 2005 levels by 2025, according to an
analysis by the economic firm Rhodium Group. While the US could technically
achieve what it pledged, those reductions are not nearly enough to stall
significant global heating. If every country made efforts on par with the US
goals, the world would still get 3C or 4C hotter, according to independent
analysis by the Climate Action Tracker.
Even
without the US government, the power sector has shifted away from coal and
toward cheaper natural gas and renewable energy – contributing to the drop. But
reductions beyond what Rhodium projects would probably require new rules and
incentives from the government.
What would
happen if Joe Biden is elected?
Biden would
immediately move to rejoin the Paris agreement, which would take about 30 days.
The former vice-president has outlined an ambitious climate plan, but most of
it requires sign-off from Congress. His proposal will be nearly impossible to
implement if Democrats do not take control of the Senate. Significant climate
legislation will be difficult to pass even if Democrats do have a majority in
the House and the Senate and Biden is in the White House.
Biden has
said he would set in motion plans to cut US emissions to net-zero by 2050 –
which is on par with what scientists say every nation in the world needs to do
to avoid the worst of the climate crisis.
He wants
the electricity system to be carbon-free by 2035. He says he would invest $2tn
on clean energy infrastructure and other climate measures, spending as much as
possible in his first four years in office. The presumed Democratic nominee
would decarbonize buildings, invest in high-speed rail and try to make the US
the top producer of electric vehicles.
What’s at
stake for the world if the US leaves?
If Donald
Trump is re-elected and the US remains outside the Paris agreement, other
nations might be less likely to pursue aggressive climate actions. The US is
the biggest historical contributor to climate change, even though it holds just
4% of the world’s population.
China is
the biggest current emitter. It is dramatically slowing its domestic emissions
growth, although it is also funding new coal plants in developing countries.
With the US
out of the picture, China could have more geopolitical influence, including in
climate negotiations. It could also benefit greatly from clean energy
manufacturing, particularly if the US continues to fall behind.
Even if the
US national government is not active in climate efforts, green-minded US states
and localities would likely come together to continue to pledge action to the
world.
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