Matteo Salvini’s coronavirus slump
Far-right leader’s populist playbook has fallen flat
during the pandemic.
By HANNAH
ROBERTS 6/2/20, 4:03 AM CET
ROME — A
year ago, Matteo Salvini seemed invincible.
Fans queued
round the corner for selfies with the then-interior minister. His far-right
League was by far the country’s most popular political force.
But with
Italians looking for a more solemn leadership style during the coronavirus
crisis, Salvini’s populist playbook has fallen flat, exposing his
vulnerabilities.
Unable to
focus the national debate on immigration and denied political rallies and other
opportunities to press the flesh, Salvini has slumped in the polls.
His
attempts at political stunts — occupying parliament in protest against
lockdowns, tweeting disinformation about the virus coming from a Chinese lab —
have failed to gain traction among voters.
Though the
League remains Italy’s strongest party, POLITICO’s Poll of Polls puts its
support at 27 percent, down 4 percentage points from the end of February and 10
points from its peak last summer. Its lead over the center-left Democratic
Party has narrowed from 15 points to 6.
Across
Europe, populist parties have done well in countries where they are in power,
such as Poland and Hungary, but parties in opposition such as the League and
Spain’s far-right Vox have generally struggled, said Lorenzo Pregliasco, a
pollster at YouTrend.
“The public
rallies around the flag, and the health crisis is the only topic on the
agenda,” he said. “There is no space for the immigration debate.”
A recent
image change — Salvini has given up his trademark open-neck white shirt in
favor of tech-nerd glasses and a suit and tie — has done little to boost his
standing.
Out of office
Salvini’s
messaging during the coronavirus crisis has at times been confused. He
fluctuated on lockdown in late February, calling for reopening in Lombardy’s
most-affected zones, then a few days later demanding full lockdown.
Since the
virus hit Italy, the lockdown has damaged the former interior minister’s
ability to connect with the public, Jacopo Morrone, a senior League MP, told
POLITICO. “The strength of Salvini and the League is out in the field, showing
our faces. We are always in the piazzas, we are close to the people.”
Pregliasco
the pollster agrees: “People who have studied the Salvini machine, the selfie
lines and rallies, say meeting people is part of his ability to come across as
an empathetic leader. Not having this has crippled his communications
strategy.”
Salvini’s
popularity rose last summer through repeated stand-offs with NGO migrant rescue
vessels. But his star began to wane in August when he brought down the
government in an attempt to force elections, which he hoped would make him
prime minister. The miscalculation allowed his rivals to form a new government
without him.
He is now
suffering from being in opposition, said Maurizio Gasparri, a prominent senator
in Silvio Berlusconi’s Forza Italia party, part of the League’s right-wing
alliance.
“As
minister for the interior, he was on the frontline against the landing of the
refugee boats, which was appreciated by many Italians,” said Gasparri. “Now
that he is no longer the figurehead of the fight against the boats he is being
penalized.”
Then in
January, the League failed to win a key regional election in the left-wing
stronghold of Emilia Romagna, on which Salvini had staked his reputation.
His slip in
the polls has given room to his rivals on the right, with Giorgia Meloni, the
leader of the even more far-right Brothers of Italy, seeing a rise in support
from 6.7 percent to 14 percent in the last year.
Within the
League, Luca Zaia, the governor of Veneto and a more moderate figure, has seen
his approval ratings soar.
Zaia
insists he has no aspirations to the national leadership, and for now most in
the League are happy to stick with Salvini, who as leader has taken the party
from 3 percent to 30 percent, said Pregliasco.
“He brought
the League to government and success in many regions. Many owe something to
Salvini.”
EU advantage
While Prime
Minister Giuseppe Conte’s government has until now benefitted from a
rally-around-the-flag effect, the looming economic crisis could give opposition
leaders like Salvini opportunities to strike.
A €55
billion economic stimulus package was delayed for more than a month as the
ruling coalition wrangled over temporary work permits for undocumented migrant
farm workers and carers. And thanks to Italy’s notorious bureaucracy, many
furloughed workers and businesses have received little or no state financial
assistance.
Perhaps the
most promising theme for boosting political consensus has been the lack of EU
solidarity, after neighboring countries initially closed borders with Italy and
blocked produce from being transported.
Polls show
a wide proportion of the public, two-thirds, have little or no trust in the EU,
with only the Democratic Party’s electorate more pro-Europe than anti, said
Pregliasco. “Framing the debate about Europe could prove fertile ground.”
So far,
however, Salvini has failed to find purchase in the EU debate. His attempt to
work the angle was somewhat incoherent, insisting that Italy reject €37 billion
in condition-free health care aid from the European Stability Mechanism.
The basis
for rejecting the aid was that it could open the door to harsh fiscal oversight
and devastating austerity, as happened in Greece in 2015. “But it was a very
technical argument, and didn’t resonate with the broader electorate,” said
Pregliasco.
Officials
within the League hope a revival of the migration debate could play a role in
the party’s resurgence.
An EU
proposal for a €750 billion recovery fund to help crisis-hit countries has the
potential to change the game, softening attitudes toward the EU and further
undermining the Salvini message (although the fund is far from a done deal).
Officials
within the League hope a revival of the migration debate could play a role in
the party’s resurgence. The amnesty for about 200,000 migrant workers could be
a gift to Salvini and the right. He could also benefit from a recent increase
in migrant boat landings as the summer gets underway.
Then there
are Salvini’s personal travails, which have the potential to pay off
politically.
This month,
the senate will vote on whether Salvini will stand trial for kidnapping over a
decision he made last summer as interior minister, when he refused to let
migrants aboard the German ship Open Arms alight in Italy.
It comes as
some of Italy's leading prosecutors have come under fire for leaked WhatsApp
messages in the case, in which they seemed to be plotting to attack Salvini.
Opposition senators may therefore feel it is bad timing for a trial.
The League
doesn’t want to engage in “the politics of the victim,” said Morrone. But if it
were to go ahead, a trial could give Salvini a chance to portray himself as
defending the country from invading hoards and possibly bring back some voters
lost to the Brothers of Italy.
The leaked
transcripts of WhatsApp messages will be seen by many Italians as potential
judicial overreach, said Morrone. “Italians imagine themselves in the place of
Salvini and worry that they too could be judged for their political beliefs.”
With the
government perpetually on the verge of collapse, Salvini will be hoping the
coming months bring another reversal of fortune.
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