As Virus Surges, Younger People Account for
‘Disturbing’ Number of Cases
People in their 20s, 30s and 40s account for a growing
proportion of the cases in many places, raising fears that asymptomatic young
people are helping to fuel the virus’s spread.
Julie
BosmanSarah Mervosh
By Julie
Bosman and Sarah Mervosh
Published
June 25, 2020
Updated
June 26, 2020, 12:01 a.m. ET
CHICAGO —
Younger people are making up a growing percentage of new coronavirus cases in
cities and states where the virus is now surging, a trend that has alarmed
public health officials and prompted renewed pleas for masks and social
distancing.
In Arizona,
where drive-up sites are overwhelmed by people seeking coronavirus tests,
people ages 20 to 44 account for nearly half of all cases. In Florida, which
breaks records for new cases nearly every day, the median age of residents
testing positive for the virus has dropped to 35, down from 65 in March.
And in Texas,
where the governor paused the reopening process on Thursday as hospitals grow
increasingly crowded, young people now account for the majority of new cases in
several urban centers. In Cameron County, which includes Brownsville and the
tourist town of South Padre Island, people under 40 make up more than half of
newly reported cases.
“What is
clear is that the proportion of people who are younger appears to have
dramatically changed,” said Joseph McCormick, a professor of epidemiology at
UTHealth School of Public Health in Brownsville. “It’s really quite
disturbing.”
The pattern
is drawing notice from mayors, governors and public health officials, and comes
as a worrisome sign for cities and institutions as they look to the fall. The
rise in cases among younger people could complicate the plans of leaders who
are eager to open schools and universities, resume athletic events and return
to normal life and a fully functioning economy.
The
increases could reflect a simple reality: Since many states have reopened bars,
restaurants and offices, the coronavirus has been allowed to spread more widely
across communities, including to more young people. But people in their 20s and
30s are also more likely to go out socializing, experts say, raising concerns
that asymptomatic young people are helping to spread the virus to more
vulnerable Americans at a time when cases are surging dangerously in the South
and the West.
Dr. Robert
Redfield, the director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said
on Thursday that younger people have helped fuel the increase in known
coronavirus infections — and that in the past, many of those infections went
undiagnosed.
“Our best
estimate right now is that for every case that was reported, there actually
were 10 other infections,” he said.
No single
answer fully accounts for the surge of cases among young people, who are less
likely to be hospitalized or die from the coronavirus than older people.
“Is it the
governor’s reopening? Is it Memorial Day? Is it the George Floyd
demonstrations? Is it going to the beach?” said Eric Boerwinkle, dean of the
UTHealth School of Public Health in Houston. “We don’t really know, but it is
probably all of those things that are contributing.”
The United
States recorded 36,975 new cases on Wednesday, a new high point in daily cases
as the country confronted a new stage of the crisis two months after the
previous high in late April. The resurgence is most immediately threatening
states that reopened relatively early in the South and the West. Alabama,
Florida, Oklahoma, South Carolina and Texas all reported their highest
single-day totals this week, as did Montana and Utah, and cases were rising in
29 states on Thursday.
Adriana
Carter, 21, is among the newly infected.
For many
weeks this spring, she said, she took steps to limit her exposure, eating many
of her meals at her apartment in San Marcos, Texas, and wearing a mask when
going in and out of stores. At the one Black Lives Matter protest she attended,
most people were in masks.
But after a
particularly long week of juggling online summer classes and her job at an eye
clinic, Ms. Carter took a risk one Saturday night in early June and met a
friend at the Square, a popular bar district downtown. Though they were careful
to avoid the most crowded spots, they chose not to wear masks as they sipped
drinks inside and endured the hot Texas weather.
Days later,
her friend woke up feeling ill. Both tested positive for the virus.
“We were
told we could go out to bars,” she said, adding that she had been careful to
quarantine since she learned that she had been exposed. “It’s very unusual for
anyone in their 20s to stay at home all the time — not giving any excuses or
anything, but I just think we are all just trying to do the best we can.”
The new
cases among young people may appear to be a departure from the early days of
the pandemic when infections in nursing homes were spiraling out of control,
and the virus appeared at higher rates among older people in New York City.
Experts
cautioned that the seemingly new prevalence among young people may be, in part,
a reflection of more widely available testing. But the growing numbers of
people hospitalized in states like North Carolina and Texas also suggest
increased transmission of the virus.
Even now,
people younger than 50 are being hospitalized at a far lower rate than people
older than that, according to C.D.C. data.
While the
effect of the coronavirus on younger people “may not be highly associated with
hospitalization and death,” Dr. Redfield said, “they do act as a transmission
connector for individuals that could in fact be at a higher risk.”
In Florida,
which has emerged as a particularly concerning hot spot, reopened bars have
been a source of contagion among young people. The state shut down the Knight’s
Pub, a popular bar near the University of Central Florida in Orlando, after 28
patrons and 13 employees were infected.
In
Miami-Dade County, the number of known coronavirus cases among 18- to
34-year-olds increased fivefold in a month, to more than 1,000, Mayor Carlos
Gimenez said this week.
“They’re thinking they’re invincible,” he said, adding
that many of the infected have no symptoms.
They are at
higher risk, though, if they are overweight or have diabetes or other medical
conditions, he said. About a third of the coronavirus patients at the public
Jackson Health System were from that age group, and about half had a high body
mass index, Mr. Gimenez said.
Gov. Ron
DeSantis described “a real explosion in new cases” among younger people. “Part
of that is just natural,” he said. “You kind of go and you want to be doing
things. You want to be out and about. The folks who are older and would be more
vulnerable are being a bit more careful.”
In fact,
some experts believe that a decision by older people to stay home and exercise
caution to avoid the virus may, in part, help explain why young people appear
to be an increasing portion of new cases.
In Dallas
County, people between the ages of 18 and 40 have made up 52 percent of newly
reported cases since the beginning of June, a jump from the 38 percent that
young people represented in March, according to county data.
At the same
time, older people have begun to represent a smaller portion of the total
number of people who test positive for the virus. In June, people over 65 have
made up 8 percent of new confirmed cases in Dallas County, down from 16 percent
in March.
The
situation is particularly unsettling in Hays County, home to Texas State
University in San Marcos. Coronavirus cases have surged since the beginning of
June, to 2,100 this week, from 371 at the start of the month. People in their
20s now make up more than half of all known cases, officials said.
In Arizona,
rising infections have set many people on edge, including some residents in
their 20s and 30s.
In Arcadia,
Ariz., Ian Bartczak, who is 31, said he did not feel comfortable dining out at
restaurants and was dismayed to see crowds of young people squeezing onto
patios and bars on a commercial strip near his home.
“It goes
back to, what is a want and what is a need?” said Mr. Bartczak, who works for
an education technology company. “Did you have to go to a big swimming party or
El Hefe nightclub with your friends?”
His point
of view has created awkwardness with some friends, he said. He has turned down
invitations to go out for sushi, and been puzzled by friends who chose to visit
casinos.
“It’s
affected some of my relationships because I won’t see them or get kind of
angry,” he said. “How are you not willing to help the old lady behind you who
could have a poor immune system? Or help lower our cases so we can increase our
economy?”
In Phoenix,
Michael Donoghue, an investment analyst who is 33, said he felt comfortable
going out — carefully — since he is single, healthy, lives alone and takes care
to avoid close contact with people who might be at risk, like his 91-year-old
grandmother.
Only once
since restrictions were lifted in that state has he felt uncomfortable while
out, he said. A bar he visited with friends in Scottsdale was crowded.
“It just
felt like, should we be doing this right now?” he said.
The
resurgence of the virus has echoes of its earliest days in the United States,
as places like California and Washington State, which saw some of the country’s
first outbreaks, were seeing new upticks.
In King
County, Wash., which includes Seattle, people in their 20s and 30s make up
about 45 percent of new coronavirus cases — a number that was 25 percent in
March, according to Dr. Judith A. Malmgren, an epidemiologist in Seattle.
She
believes the real percentage is even larger than what is being measured because
younger people are less likely to be symptomatic. That said, she warned that
the risk of infecting other people was serious.
“Just
because you’re in an age group that is less likely to die from coronavirus,”
she said, “does not mean that you live alone.”
Julie
Bosman reported from Chicago, and Sarah Mervosh from Pittsburgh. Patricia
Mazzei contributed reporting from Miami, and Mitch Smith from Chicago.
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Julie
Bosman is a national correspondent who covers the Midwest. Born and raised in
Wisconsin and based in Chicago, she has written about politics, education, law
enforcement and literature. @juliebosman • Facebook
Sarah
Mervosh is a national reporter based in New York, covering a wide variety of
news and feature stories across the country. @smervosh
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