Coronavirus tracked: Global CO2 emissions ‘fell
to lowest level in 14 years’ during lockdowns
First definitive study of carbon output in 2020
reveals the biggest carbon crash since records began
Anthony
Cuthbertson @ADCuthbertson
Global
carbon dioxide emissions fell by as much as 17 per cent as a result of
lockdowns imposed around the world in response to the coronavirus crisis,
according to a new study.
Research
published in the journal Nature Climate Change revealed that daily CO2
emissions on 7 April temporarily dropped to levels last seen in 2006.
It is the
first definitive study of global carbon output this year and analysed daily CO2
emissions across 69 countries, 50 US states, 30 Chinese provinces, six economic
sectors, and three levels of confinement, using data from daily electricity use
and mobility tracking services.
It found
that global emissions could fall by up to 7 per cent this year, depending on
ongoing restrictions and social distancing measures during the coronavirus
pandemic.
The sharp
drop represents the biggest fall in carbon emissions since records began.
In 2019,
the world emitted around 100 million tonnes of carbon dioxide per day by
burning fossil fuels and cement production, the research said.
In early
April 2020, emissions fell to 83 million tonnes per day. Some countries’
emissions dropped by as much as 26 per cent on average during the peak of the
confinement.
If
pre-pandemic conditions return by mid-June, then 2020 emissions could decline
by a more modest 4 per cent compared to 2019, though this would still be the
largest single annual decrease in absolute emissions since the end of World War
II.
A UN report
last year said emissions needed to drop by 2.7 per cent a year keep warming
well below 2 degrees Celsius, and 7.6 per cent a year to keep below 1.5C.
“Population
confinement has led to drastic changes in energy use and CO2 emissions,” said
lead author Corinne Le Quéré at the University of East Anglia.
“These
extreme decreases are likely to be temporary, however, as they do not reflect
structural changes in the economic, transport, or energy systems,” she added.
China saw
the largest drop in emissions in April, followed by the United States, Europe
and India.
In the
countries with the strictest lockdown restrictions, emissions from aviation
plunged 75 per cent in early April, while emissions from land transport fell by
50 per cent and from power generation by 15 per cent.
Emissions
from industry declined by around 35 per cent, with a lack of data causing some
uncertainty. Emissions from residential buildings, however, increased by 5 per
cent, the study said.
“The
emissions reductions occurring because of Covid-19 will clearly be
unprecedented. What is less certain is how the economy will rebound in late
2020 and 2021,” said Glen Peters at the CICERO Center for International Climate
Research in Norway, which took part in the study.
“As
different countries and sectors recover, it is unclear if activity levels will
return to normal levels or if we may see permanent shifts in behaviour,” he
added.
The
environmental impact of coronavirus containment measures has also led to a huge
reduction in air pollution in the form of nitrogen dioxide (NO2) emissions,
which are released by cars, aeroplanes and other combustion engines.
Flourish
logoA Flourish data visualisation
Satellite
images captured by the European Space Agency showed a dramatic decrease in NO2
emissions in 2020 compared to 2019.
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