British public wants Dominic Cummings to resign,
poll says
71 percent of Brits think Boris Johnson’s top aide
broke lockdown rules.
By CHARLIE
COOPER 5/26/20, 2:53 PM CET Updated 5/26/20, 3:00 PM CET
LONDON — A
majority of the British public still believes Boris Johnson's top aide should
resign, despite his explanation of alleged breaches of the U.K.'s coronavirus
lockdown, new polling shows.
According
to YouGov, which conducted its survey after Dominic Cummings gave a press
conference in Downing Street on Monday, 71 percent of Brits think the adviser
broke lockdown rules and 59 percent think he should resign. Both figures have
increased slightly since the same questions were asked on Saturday.
Even
Conservative voters are split, with 46 percent saying he should resign and the
same proportion taking the opposite view. Among those who voted for Brexit in
the 2016 referendum (in which Cummings masterminded Vote Leave's campaign), 52
percent think Cummings should now resign.
Cummings
has said he acted legally and reasonably and does not regret his decision to
drive his family more than 400 kilometers from London to Durham despite suspecting
that they may have been exposed to the coronavirus. Prime Minister Boris
Johnson has backed his adviser, despite calls from opposition parties and at
least 20 Conservative MPs for his resignation.
The data is
likely to be closely studied by Johnson's team, who have polled every aspect of
public opinion during the pandemic, with aides receiving near-daily updates on
the public mood. While Cummings insisted Monday he had not considered
resigning, that could change if polling continues to suggest the story is
impacting the public's view of the government more broadly.
The poll of
1,160 adults was conducted over the course of Monday and Tuesday, with all data
gathered after the press conference was held.
Authors:
Charlie Cooper
Why Boris Johnson can’t let Cummings go
The British PM’s special adviser inspires greater
loyalty among many key officials than Johnson does.
By CHARLIE
COOPER AND EMILIO CASALICCHIO 5/26/20, 9:45 PM CET Updated 5/27/20, 12:19 AM
CET
LONDON —
Never mind whether Boris Johnson should get rid of Dominic Cummings, the real
question is whether he can.
To the U.K.
prime minister, his top aide — whose lockdown journey from London to Durham has
dominated headlines for days — is more than just an effective political
adviser. He is the lynchpin of the Downing Street operation; someone who —
according to several people who have worked with the two men in and out of
government — gives Johnson policy direction and operational grip, while
commanding more loyalty among a number of key officials and ministers than the
prime minister does himself.
The two
men’s working relationship was forged in the victorious Vote Leave campaign of
2016, which Cummings orchestrated, with Johnson as his frontman. Many of the
top team in Johnson’s government — both officials and ministers — are ex-Vote
Leave, veterans of endless media firestorms whose modus operandi has always
been to “tough it out.”
But with
the British public firmly of the view that Cummings breached the coronavirus
lockdown that millions had been dutifully abiding by, and a growing number of
Tory MPs calling for his resignation, can they hold out?
And if
Cummings won’t go of his own volition, will (or can) Johnson remove him? Don’t
count on it, said one person who worked with both men at Vote Leave. “The whole
operation is Dom. The whole of No. 10 is staffed by Dom protégés. Ministers,
secretaries of state and special advisers are only in place if he says so … If
he doesn't want to go, it would be meltdown for Boris to try to make him.”
Vote Leave
government
In the view
of one seasoned commentator, the editor of the Reaction website Iain Martin,
Johnson is “psychologically dependent” on Cummings, although the pair’s
connection seems perplexing at first glance, their personalities strikingly
different.
But, those
who know them both say, they are complementary. “As a big picture person, Boris
needs a details man. And as a frontman, he needs an ops guy,” said another
senior figure from the Vote Leave campaign, speaking on condition of anonymity
in order to freely discuss former colleagues. “Dom fills this skill set better
than anyone else in Westminster, making him nearly (but not completely)
irreplaceable.”
Johnson,
the former Vote Leave figure said, would be loath to part company with Cummings
even in ordinary times. In the midst of the worst public health crisis for a
century, a collapsing economy and the imminent end of the post-Brexit
transition period, he’ll hold him ever more tightly.
“In quieter
times, it is conceivable that a more collegiate figure [than Cummings] might
work,” they said. “[Now] the PM needs clarity and grit, so I don’t expect Dom
to go anytime soon.”
Besides the
operational impact of losing Cummings himself — he is the chief architect of
the government’s policy agenda and the person who ensures, via relentless polling
and focus groups, that No. 10 remains focused on what Johnson calls “the
people’s priorities” — there is the risk of who might go with him.
Vote Leave
veterans occupy several top jobs in No. 10 and the Cabinet: from communications
director Lee Cain and Brexit adviser Oliver Lewis to Foreign Secretary Dominic
Raab, Cabinet Office Minister Michael Gove and Home Secretary Priti Patel.
Johnson may have been the frontman, but until very recently, some of the key
figures who now answer to him aspired to the crown in their own right. Some of
them owe more loyalty to Cummings than Johnson.
Gove, in
particular, has a far deeper-rooted relationship with Cummings — his former
special adviser — than Johnson does. Even the young and popular chancellor,
Rishi Sunak, the first Vote Leave figure said, was “very much a Gove protégé”
in the EU referendum days.
Parting
company with Cummings might seem like a simple choice for Johnson, given the
level of public anger about his alleged breach of rules he helped create, but
unless he chooses to go, the prime minister risks upsetting the balance of
power within the influential governing set of which he is the figurehead but
not the spiritual leader.
Cummings
himself, reluctant to come into government at all when Johnson sought him out
last year and initially intending to stay in post only until Brexit was
achieved, now seems determined to stick around, in his own words, to help the
country through the crisis it faces. He is, colleagues say, loyal to his boss —
and for Johnson the loyalty of such a figure matters a great deal.
“For any
leader, the circle of people who they can completely trust is one that tends to
narrow,” said a third former Vote Leave figure, the campaign chair Gisela
Stuart. “And for Boris it started with a narrow core to begin with.”
Toughing it
out
If Cummings
does go, it therefore seems likely it will happen in consultation with Johnson,
not under orders.
Cummings is
famed for his ability to read and respond to public opinion, and if there is
anything likely to make him think he must fall on his sword, it is emerging
evidence of a free-fall in government support.
According
to research firm Savanta, Johnson’s personal rating has fallen from +19 to -1
in just four days, while the government’s is down to -2, the London Evening
Standard reported. Meanwhile, a YouGov poll on Tuesday found 59 percent of
Brits think he should quit.
So far
Cummings and Johnson show no sign of giving in to what they used to dub
"the will of the people."
"Dominic
Cummings’ key strength during the referendum and election campaigns was
understanding what it is the public does and doesn’t care about, and then
focusing on the important things,” said Chris Curtis, political research
manager at YouGov. “However, one of the reasons why the past few days have
played particularly badly for the government is because on this occasion they
have misjudged that calculation. They thought the story would move on but it
hasn’t."
“The prime minister — having decided to keep him — has
got to keep him," — Former Cabinet minister
Johnson may
be conscious that, with criticism of the government's coronavirus response
already rife, giving in and losing his top adviser risks emboldening opposition
parties and media critics — and leaving himself even more exposed.
“The prime
minister — having decided to keep him — has got to keep him," said one
former Cabinet minister. "To lose him now would be a very great loss of
prime ministerial authority. You either dig in or you don’t. The capital is
spent now. If he got rid of him he would lose even more capital and he would be
weakened. If he got rid of him now the blood would be in the water and the
sharks would smell it.”
Johnson has faced “trial by media” before, the
ex-minister added, and has “stuck it out.”
“He doesn't
like the idea of people quitting if they haven't done anything wrong. I expect
he will sympathize with Dom over that and stand by him.”
However,
public disapproval makes this episode different to some of the criticisms
Cummings and his set have faced in the past, such as over their misleading use
of figures during the Brexit referendum or apparent disdain for constitutional
norms in battles with parliament over Brexit.
For
Johnson, unless attitudes change, it increasingly looks like a problem with no
good solutions: lose Cummings and with him the engine of his government or keep
him and lose the public.
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