The pandemic could reshape the world order. Trump's
chaotic strategy is accelerating US losses
Analysis by
Nic Robertson, CNN
London
(CNN)Europe outright rejected US President Donald Trump's vision of the world
this week. Tensions between these historic democratic allies that have been
simmering since Trump came to office three years ago have now come to a boil
during the coronavirus pandemic.
Covid-19 has shocked the world by the speed of its
spread, but it is also accelerating another global change in the balance of
power -- and not in America's favor.
The extent
of the divide became clear on Tuesday during a vote at the World Health
Organization annual assembly in Geneva, Switzerland, backing Europe's
conciliatory approach to China relating to an investigation into the outbreak.
Power had visibly ebbed away from the United States as its demand for a tougher
approach was dismissed, a move that should sound alarm bells in Washington.
Five months
into 2020 and it already feels like a new era: now there is only BC and AC --
before and after coronavirus. Suddenly the dynamics of almost every single
geopolitical dispute are being exacerbated by the pandemic, sharpened by the
complexity and urgency of the situation.
Chief among
these is the perennial, three-way battle for dominance between the US, Europe
and China. Despite Trump's early hailing of Xi Jinping's handling of the
pandemic, he has since blamed the Chinese President for covering up the early
stages of China's outbreak. Beijing has consistently denied such accusations,
and criticized the US approach to the pandemic.
Trump has
also sought to blame the WHO for siding with China, and cut almost $500 million
in funding to the United Nations body. He doubled down Monday telling the
agency he will permanently pull US funding if it does not "commit to major
substantive improvements in the next 30 days."
Despite
deep concerns about China's handling of the pandemic, European leaders backed
the WHO resolution calling for "a stepwise process of impartial
independent and comprehensive evaluation, including using existing mechanisms,
as appropriate to review experience gained and lessons learned" from the
global response to Covid-19
Unease in
Europe
Europe's
decision to reject Trump's confrontation with China and the WHO will affect
both parties vying to win this year's US election. Regardless of who wins that
race, Trump and his handling of Covid-19 are weakening America's global
leverage.
It also
shows how much the rest of the democratic world has riding on the US election
this year. Europe is best served by a world leader and trading partner that
shares its democratic values. The WHO vote was a salutary reminder of where
power goes when that's not the case.
As far as
most of Europe is concerned, Trump's chaotic and vindictive response to
Covid-19 has crystallized their deepest concerns that his administration is
going where no right-minded democracy can follow. Three years of "make do
and mend" in the buckling transatlantic relationship is being pushed
towards a permanent fissure, one that maybe won't sever the relationship but
allows others like China to take advantage.
Trump's
comments about the value of ingesting bleach to combat coronavirus, that he
later claimed were sarcastic, could perhaps at another time have been brushed
off as yet another Trumpian moment. These include his bullying of German
Chancellor Angela Merkel in 2018 at NATO, or his tiff with Canada's PM Justin
Trudeau at the G7 in the same year in Quebec. But now they just sound bizarre
from this side of the Atlantic.
What cannot
be overlooked when assessing the White House, however, is his administration's
unambiguous ouster of critics, including four inspector generals this past
month. It is not a play most democratic European leaders would countenance, or
could get away with.
At this
distance from the US, Trump's handling of Covid-19 suggests a deteriorating
grasp of the responsibilities of leadership, and certainly does not show an
ally who can be counted on at a time of an emergency.
In their
speeches in Geneva on Monday the EU's big two, German Chancellor Merkel and
French President Emmanuel Macron, along with the meeting's host, Swiss
President Simonetta Sommaruga, took aim at Trump's Covid-19 actions to cut funding
for the world body.
The Swiss
said we "can't expect a lot" from the WHO if "their funding is
hit or miss," while Merkel echoed the support for the WHO's unity of
purpose saying that "combating Covid-19" cannot be done alone. Macron
appeared to warn off Trump and Xi from withholding possible future vaccines:
"human health cannot be appropriated, brought or sold," he said.
Notably
Macron has been fighting a rearguard action with French pharma giant Sanofi
after its CEO indicated the US might get access to any of his company's
potential vaccines before France, comments that Sanofi later said were
"misinterpreted."
Carrot-and-stick
approach
International
trust, never mind cooperation, is in short supply at the moment, and in the
eyes of many Europeans, Trump is coming up short on both.
His
inconsistent announcements, irascible nature and ill-advised comments, the
latest claiming he was taking an unproven and possibly dangerous malaria
medication as a Covid-19 prophylactic appear to leave European leaders little
choice. They may not trust Xi, but they certainly don't want Trump to dictate a
strategy on the pandemic they believe will infuriate the Chinese Premier.
China is
working on three of the world's eight most hopeful vaccines as well as
supplying personal protective equipment to many nations. Although Xi has
promised not to limit access, he increasingly believes Trump's China strategy
is to deny their hi-tech products access to world markets, an existential
threat. The potential conflict of interests is obvious.
European
leaders believe it's better to coax Xi into cooperation than to confront him.
Their act
of independence is of course a slap in the face for Trump and his Secretary of
State Mike Pompeo's efforts to divide the world into two binary camps, and
follows in the wake of the bruising conflict over the provision of 5G
technology. In that battle, the US sought to bully Western nations into
shunning the Chinese state-backed telecoms option, with threats to withhold
intelligence briefings from those that disobeyed the order.
Yet with
the US presidential election just over five months away, Europe's decision (and
that of more than 120 other nations) at this week's WHO assembly is also a
stark warning for America's Democrats: lose in November and see Washington's
future influence in the world slip further over the horizon. Four more years of
Trump, on his current path, would seem unlikely to reset his post Covid-19
image.
But if
Trump wins the argument, and Xi is dealt with by confrontation, then America
loses twice.
First, it
loses because Xi escapes investigation, won't admit any wrongdoing, and is
unlikely to pay for his mistakes as Trump wants. Secondly Trump loses on the
power stakes: Xi in essence, has dragged much of the world into his corner.
That's the Covid-19 effect shift in the power balance.
The UK, for
instance, was initially hawkish about China's alleged Covid-19 opacity: just
last month, Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab, deputizing for the hospitalized PM
Boris Johnson, was robust about China being held to account, telling a press
briefing: "We cannot have business as usual after this crisis."
Fast
forward a month and his Cabinet colleague, Health Secretary Matt Hancock
appeared less bullish, telling the WHO assembly on Monday there was no need to
investigate China specifically: "We support the need for a review of the
global response at the appropriate point."
In the
circumstances, it might seem brave then to tempt Trump's ire just as the UK is
already in choppy waters with the US in its post-Brexit trade talks and its
decision to allow Huawei limited access to its 5G mobile phone network.
Trump's
handling of Covid-19 is accelerating, not ameliorating, existing differences,
but even so Europe has every reason to fear China's creeping expansionism.
Canary in
the coal mine
A case in
point is Australia, which on Tuesday learned the high price of its support for
Trump's policy. The country's hawkish right-wing government was in lockstep
with the US President in demanding China face an independent WHO investigation
over its failure to warn the world of the Covid-19 threat, but was delivered a
heavy blow for its truculence. China slapped massive tariffs on imports of
Australian barley.
Australia's
proximity to Xi's anti-democratic tendencies and heavy dependence on trade with
China now makes the country an unenviable democratic canary in the proverbial
coal mine.
President Xi's
cynically timed intervention at the WHO Assembly Monday offering $2 billion to
aid the WHO, as well as support for African nations, sends an unequivocal
message: as the US President turns inwards, lashing out at critics, China takes
up the slack.
Trump's
handling of the pandemic on the international stage hands Xi an opportunity he
might not have dared wish for. The leader the Chinese President believes is
doing most to hold his country back is falling out with his allies, so this is
his moment to cement every gain before the situation is reversed.
Xi's
so-called "wolf diplomats" are doubling down on their leader's
message, criticizing all those who complain about China, by claiming it did
nothing wrong, and was open and forthcoming about Covid-19.
The US's
slow disengagement from the world under former president Barack Obama is
accelerating under his successor. And unless Democrats regain the White House
in November they'll find some of the levers of power no longer connect with
their allies the way they used to.
An earlier
version of this story misstated the location and number of countries at the
2018 G7 summit. This has been corrected.
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