This Cummings spat could be a dangerous political
trap for Johnson
Katy Balls
Tory MPs fear the prime minister stands to lose far
more than his opponent in a public row over leaks
Mon 26 Apr
2021 17.47 BST
Boris
Johnson once cited his favourite movie scene as the multiple retribution
killings at the end of The Godfather. But it’s a line from the film’s sequel
that best explains the events that have led to the row between the prime
minister and his former adviser Dominic Cummings that is currently engulfing
Downing Street: “Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgment.”
On Thursday,
Downing Street briefed several newspapers that Johnson believed his one-time
right-hand man had been behind a number of damaging government leaks. These
leaks were wide-ranging – from the recent publication of messages between
Johnson and James Dyson over ventilators, to the leaked news of England’s
second lockdown, when Johnson was forced to bring forward plans for a circuit
breaker.
Since
Cummings quit, following a row that included Johnson’s fiancee, Carrie Symonds,
the relationship between the prime minister and his former aide has gone from
bad to worse. Aides have been advised against keeping in contact with members
of the Vote Leave team, and Johnson has seemed keen to remove all reminders of
Cummings from Downing Street.
Johnson’s
belief that damaging stories in the papers – from the Downing Street
refurbishment, to Dilyn the dog’s antics and his messages to the Saudi crown
prince Mohammed bin Salman – were down to Cummings have compounded these
tensions. Aides argue that Cummings is “bitter” that the government hasn’t
fallen down in his absence.
What the
briefings last week did, however, was to make a private annoyance public.
Cummings was quick to hit back with a blog post in which he denied being the
source of the leaks and made new allegations, claiming the prime minister
considered breaking the law with his plans for a lavish Downing Street flat
refurbishment, and that he called off a leak inquiry because he was concerned
it could mean he had to fire one of his fiancee’s close friends.
Given the
Tories are currently riding high in the polls, one could be forgiven for
thinking this is a court drama that will simply fizzle out. But understanding
the row is important, because it could have big implications for the
government.
Why did the
prime minister decide to go on the attack? There are two schools of thought
about the wisdom of this approach. The charitable case, as put forward by
Johnson’s most loyal supporters, is that he was simply responding to a campaign
of abuse from Cummings and this was the best way to limit the damage.
The reasons
for this are twofold. One, Cummings is not a popular public figure. The row
over his trip from London to Durham during England’s first lockdown made him
one of the most unpopular figures in the country. Even to this day, “red wall”
MPs say that wordclouds of constituent emails show “Barnard Castle” in the
largest font. It follows that as Johnson is more popular than Cummings, blaming
the former aide could limit the damage to his public reputation.
The second
reason is 26 May – the date that Cummings is due to give evidence to MPs about
the government’s Covid response. There are nerves in No 10 ahead of this
appearance, particularly about what Cummings could say and what evidence he
could later provide. “I wouldn’t be surprised if he made a load of outlandish
claims, forced the government to deny them and then published all the
evidence,” says one former colleague of Cummings.
If the
prime minister were successful in discrediting Cummings as a figure ahead of
this appearance, some think it could limit the damage. This is why the leak of
England’s second lockdown is particularly significant. Cummings denies it was
him. Were the prime minister able to prove otherwise, it could make his former
aide appear an unreliable witness.
Yet few
people have made these arguments. Even if discrediting Cummings was Johnson’s
aim, it seems odd that he would have triggered this row before a bumper set of
local elections, rather than waiting until after polling day.
Speak to
government aides and MPs who support the prime minister and they are more
likely to say this is all a horrible misjudgment. “A lot of people were saying
this is a massive mistake, but the prime minister just cracked,” says one
government figure. “It was death by a thousand cuts. He’s not a happy figure.”
The fear is
that Johnson has fallen into a trap – a public spat he cannot win. It’s not
that Johnson won’t damage Cummings, but rather that Johnson simply has far more
to lose. One is a public figure keen for re-election in a few years’ time, the
other is a private individual.
For now,
however, Johnson has the support of his parliamentary party. Many Tory MPs were
desperate to see the back of Cummings – he had little time for them when in
post. While the current headlines are far from ideal, the more important thing
is that MPs do not believe this row will affect the local elections. The Tories
are still enjoying a comfortable lead in the polls. Although Labour has been
going on the attack on Tory sleaze since the Greensill saga, MPs say it appears
to have had little impact on the doorstep so far. Several Conservative MPs
claim they have not received a single email from constituents over Greensill
and lobbying.
But this
could change. MPs returning to parliament this week after a weekend out on the
doorstep say constituents have started to voice the issue of the flat
refurbishment, along with Tory infighting. If these become contentious issues
among voters, Tory nerves will grow.
Johnson
didn’t win the support of his party because he has close individual ties within
it. In fact, he doesn’t have much in the way of a loyal camp of MPs. What keeps
him in place is the fact that he is viewed as a winner. If the Cummings row
changes this, the prime minister will have a real reason to worry.
Katy Balls
is the Spectator’s deputy political editor
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