10 headaches in Boris Johnson’s in-tray

 

10 headaches in Boris Johnson’s in-tray

 

British MPs return on Tuesday with a very busy few months ahead.

 

By ALEX WICKHAM 8/31/20, 8:28 AM CET Updated 8/31/20, 3:10 PM CET

https://www.politico.eu/article/10-headaches-in-boris-johnsons-in-tray/

 

LONDON — If you thought the first half of 2020 was busy, think again.

 

As Westminster returns from August's lull, Prime Minister Boris Johnson picks up a hugely crowded agenda, even by the standards of British politics in recent years. Faced with a possible second wave of coronavirus infections, the pandemic's severe economic fallout and to-the-wire Brexit trade talks with Brussels, the implications for the country — and by extension, Johnson's Conservative government — could hardly be more stark.

 

Here's POLITICO's bluffer's guide to how Westminster insiders think the months ahead will play out, courtesy of London Playbook's new author Alex Wickham. You can read his first Playbook here and sign up for the morning briefing email here.

 

1. Back to school

First up is Tuesday’s grand reopening of English and Welsh schools (Monday is a U.K. holiday and many children in Scotland and Northern Ireland have already returned).

 

Downing Street and Education Secretary Gavin Williamson are increasingly bullish that things will go according to plan and children will return to classrooms, despite concerns among teachers and parents.

 

Britain's Prime Minister Boris Johnson talks with head teacher Bernadette Matthews as he visits St Joseph's Catholic Primary School in east London, on August 10, 2020 to see preparedness plans implemented | Pool photo by Lucy Young/AFP via Getty Images

 

The U.K. government faced a precarious buildup in the last week of the summer holidays with (another) U-turn on face-masks last Wednesday, now mandating that secondary school children wear coverings in the corridors, though not in lessons. Ministers reckon they’ve got through this latest wobble with local authorities and trade unions broadly staying onside, and are now confident both parents and children ultimately want schools to go back.

 

“We’re there,” one insider assured Playbook.

 

2. Back to the office vs. avoiding a second wave

Assuming children make it back to school relatively smoothly, attention will quickly turn to the state of the economy.

 

Playbook was cautioned against expecting any big government campaign to urge people back to offices this week, but, as has been the case much of the way through the pandemic, Health Secretary Matt Hancock’s safety-first approach isn’t backed by everyone in his Tory Party, some of whom worry that unless people get back to work there will be dire economic consequences.

 

 

This has become the first major battleground as Tory MPs head back to Westminster. So far, Downing Street is erring on the side of caution, but the fight is just beginning.

 

3. Unemployment bombshell

The reasons for those economic concerns are twofold: First, fears that towns and cities across the country face an unmitigated disaster if office workers aren’t heading in to spend money in shops and pubs. But even more worrying, a widely expected leap in unemployment when the government's furlough scheme, which is currently paying the wages of millions of workers, comes to an end in October.

 

Chancellor Rishi Sunak has his first annual budget due in November, and there were reports in the Sunday newspapers that the three-year spending review due this year could be chopped down to one year in an attempt to tackle the looming unemployment crisis.

 

All of which means a war beginning to rage in the Tory Party on several fronts over how the chancellor should respond.

 

4. Tax rises or tax cuts

Both the Sunday Times and Sunday Telegraph front pages describing “the largest tax rises in a generation” reportedly being plotted by Treasury officials have terrified more economically liberal Tory ministers and MPs whose ideological opposition to such proposals sees them as obstacles to growth.

 

The papers reported that any suggestion of raising capital gains tax — levied on assets when they are sold — to the same level as income tax, or reducing pension tax relief would be resisted by Johnson’s aides in No. 10, who are said to want ministers to find further cuts to spending in Whitehall instead.

 

The split feeds into a coming battle for the soul of the Tory Party over the level of economic intervention the government should pursue post COVID. Some in Whitehall believe the central government will have to play much more of a role in economic life for years to come, something that is going down like a cup of cold sick among those on the right of the Conservative Party.

 

The next round of Brexit talks begins on September 7, with both sides warning that a no-deal outcome looks more likely than it did a couple of months ago.

 

But on tax rises, you get the feeling those No. 10 aides won’t have minded those Sunday newspaper stories riling up the Tory backbenches on their first week back. As Labour spin doctor Damian McBride notes in this useful Twitter thread: "The most predictable outcome of these stories was for Tory MPs returning from recess to urge Boris to over-rule Rishi and win this battle. So if that’s what the source wanted, it’s a job well done."

 

5. New Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office

The merger of the Foreign Office and the Department for International Development is due this week — and Wednesday will be the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office’s first day.

 

(Spare a thought for the government official who warned colleagues to no avail that the new title would inevitably be abbreviated to Focado, rhyming with online supermarket Ocado.)

 

All eyes next on the outgoing Secretary of State for International Development Anne-Marie Trevelyan and a potential wider ministerial shake-up. Trevelyan should get a farewell at Tuesday’s Cabinet meeting, but she has also been linked longer-term with Ben Wallace’s job as defense secretary. Wallace's relationship with No. 10 continues to prove troublesome, according to government ministers and officials familiar with the situation, ahead of the integrated review of security, defense, development and foreign policy, which is due later this year.

 

The expectation among rising-star ministers looking for promotions is that there won’t be a proper Cabinet reshuffle until the New Year. Joyously that means months of peacocking ahead.

 

6. New faces

We should soon be getting news of who will replace Mark Sedwill, who stood down as the most senior official in the British government in June following months of reports that he had clashed with Johnson's Downing Street team.

 

The current department of health top official Chris Wormald has been the papers’ favorite for the gig, but the latest POLITICO hears from civil service insiders is that this is far from a done deal.

 

Meanwhile, the PM’s Director of Communications Lee Cain has to choose the new face of the government this month, with the plan to introduce White House-style televised press conferences to Downing Street expected to be implemented in October.

 

7. Deal or no deal?

The next round of Brexit talks begins on September 7, with both sides warning that a no-deal outcome looks more likely than it did a couple of months ago.

 

Tim Shipman's Sunday Times long-read from a couple of weeks back still reflects thinking within chief U.K. Brexit negotiator David Frost's team that unless the EU and its chief negotiator Michel Barnier shift on state aid rules, Britain will be better off leaving the transition period without a deal.

 

Some Brexiteer MPs expect No. 10 to formally walk away from talks sooner rather than later.

 

All of which raises fundamental questions over whether Downing Street is bluffing, whether the coronavirus has hardened or softened ministers’ resolve on no deal, how a crash-out would go down on the Tory benches, and what it would mean for the union of the United Kingdom.

 

8. Lockdown 2?

Come the winter, if the U.K. is struck by a severe second wave of the virus, then ministers will face another big fight over any new nationwide restrictions in England or more extensive local lockdowns.

 

Hancock rolled the pitch for such measures in the Times last week. But we're told there is a concerted effort by some ministers who are more wary of sweeping lockdown measures to stress the role of the public’s personal responsibility in handling the next stage of the pandemic.

 

“People know now that they have to wash their hands and socially distance and stay at home if they have a cough. There comes a point where personal responsibility is more important than anything we can do,” warned one government official.

 

Those in Whitehall praying for a less devastating second wave are quietly suggesting that the unusually mild flu season last winter was a key factor in the high COVID death toll first time round.

 

9. Backbench bellyaching

All these divisions feed into a general mood of disquiet on the Tory backbenches, after months of grumblings over the initial lockdown, the general handling of the pandemic, and more recently frustration at the series of recent U-turns.

 

This has the possibility of blowing up into a real theme over the next few months, but for the moment ministers hope it will calm down. “Things have been much more difficult because MPs have been away from parliament. Once they’re back this week, there will be much more of those informal chats between backbenchers and Cabinet ministers and ministers and the prime minister. The mood should improve instantly,” a government insider said.

 

10. Legislative logjam

They certainly need it to, because the government needs all the help it can get rushing through the legislation that must clear parliament before the end of the year.

 

The major Brexit bills that have to be passed by December 31 are: Agriculture (started in the Commons, due to start report stage in Lords in September), Fisheries (started in the Lords, second reading in Commons on September 1), Immigration (started in the Commons, now at committee stage in Lords), Trade (started in Commons, now at second reading in Lords), U.K. Internal Markets (due to be introduced in Commons in September) and of course legislation to put any deal with the EU into law, if indeed there is one.

 

Aaand breathe.