Joe Biden needs more than virtue to win. He will
have to pick an exciting vice-president
Simon
Tisdall
Trump’s blunders have left the Democratic candidate in
with a chance, if he chooses an inspiring running mate.
Published
onSun 14 Jun 2020 08.05 BST
On the
slender shoulders of 77-year-old Joe Biden has fallen a heavy burden:
responsibility for defeating Donald Trump and resetting America’s course.
Whether the issue is racial injustice, the climate crisis, inequality, Middle
East peace or democracy’s future, Biden alone stands between the US and four
more years of divisive turmoil at home and dangerous confrontation abroad.
Will he
win? He certainly wants to. After 36 years in the Senate and eight playing
second fiddle to Barack Obama, Biden is the nearly man of US politics. It’s his
last shot at the top spot. Yet his conventional centrist outlook, empathetic
style and courteous, old-school mien recall a different age. Is he the man to
lead the necessary, radical re-ordering of a post-Covid world in the teeth of
Trump’s bottomless malignity?
Lockdown in
a basement suited Biden. While Trump publicly flailed and failed, he kept his
powder dry. Now his campaign is stepping out into the light. A pandemic
recovery plan, police reform in the wake of George Floyd’s killing, and curbs
on Facebook abuses are among recent initiatives. Like a man in a bar turning to
confront a taunting bully, Biden – at last – is rolling up his sleeves.
Of all the
decisions facing him between now and November, perhaps the most consequential
is imminent – his pick for vice-president, which he has promised by August.
Biden indicated last year that, should he win, he would only serve one term.
Running again as an octogenarian was more or less ruled out, assuming he could
count on a trusted successor. That makes his choice of vice president, or veep,
vastly more important than usual. His pick can expect a ready-made launchpad
for their own 2024 presidential bid – and a reasonable chance of success.
Who will it
be? Biden badly needs vigour and youthful energy, if only to rebut the “Sleepy
Joe” label pinned on him by Trump. He needs to reconcile his moderate policy
positions with the party’s left wing. He needs to widen his appeal. That’s why
he has already pledged to pick a woman. And that’s why, following the Black
Lives Matter protests, that woman may well be black.
Emboldened
by the spotlight on inequality, black female hopefuls are knocking on Biden's
door
Two white
women led the pack until recently. But Senator Amy Klobuchar’s time as a career
prosecutor in Minnesota, the state where Floyd was killed, may have dashed her
chances. Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, another defeated rival, is
the darling of the liberal left. Yet polls suggest she puts off almost as many
voters as she attracts.
Emboldened
meanwhile by the spotlight on inequality, several black female hopefuls are
knocking on Biden’s door. Some, like the California senator, Kamala Harris, are
familiar figures from the primaries. Others, such as Keisha Lance Bottoms,
mayor of Atlanta, won notice during the Floyd protests.
Other names
mentioned include Val Demings, a congresswoman from Florida, Stacey Abrams,
known for her ultimately unsuccessful 2018 Georgia governorship campaign, and
Susan Rice, Obama’s former national security adviser. Pundits say Michelle
Obama would be the most compelling choice of all – but she doesn’t want the
job.
All the
likely picks are younger than Biden. All would help get out the black vote in
potentially decisive numbers, avoiding Hillary Clinton’s fate in 2016 when
black turnout fell. Selecting either Harris or Demings would add geographical
reach. Either Abrams or Bottoms could help Biden in Georgia and the South.
Biden may
hope his choice of a female running mate will mitigate concerns about his past,
allegedly inappropriate, behaviour towards women. Yet this worry seems
overblown. Biden holds a massive 59%-35% poll lead over Trump among all women
voters. The choice of a woman of colour would presumably also further strengthen
his current 70%-23% advantage among non-whites.
More than
anything, picking a black woman, with the possibility of her becoming the first
female president, would be a historic move. It would inject excitement and
moral authority into Biden’s campaign, especially among younger voters. It
would be hailed as a major, practical advance for racial equality and a rebuff
to the white supremacist Trump rump.
It would be
a signal that America really is changing. And it would offer posthumous
vindication to George Floyd and the many, many others who have suffered as he
did.
Biden is in
an unusually strong position right now, leading nationally by about 10 points.
That’s a bigger margin than Hillary Clinton achieved at any point in her
campaign. To the consternation of Republicans, he is even gaining among
non-college-educated whites, a key segment of the fabled Trump “base” – though
the president still leads among white males.
Trump’s
inept handling of the pandemic has hurt him badly. His aggressive over-reaction
to the Floyd protests, and attempts to link the Democrats to Antifa
(anti-fascist) “terrorism”, backfired. His electoral ace – a strong economy –
has been trumped by the virus amid signs of a second wave. Ironically, his
efforts to polarise voters have succeeded. There are fewer undecideds and
independents than ever.
Right now,
a clear majority wants him gone.
And yet,
and yet ... Biden beware. America has been here before. Clinton, too, led by a
mile at this stage four years ago. On election eve, she remained ahead, but
still lost the electoral college. While that could happen again, an even worse
nightmare would be a repeat of the tied 2000 election, with Trump screaming
fraud and disputing tallies, and a biased Supreme Court deciding the result.
Is this a
real possibility? With Trump at the wheel, madly careening about like Toad of
Toad Hall, fearing jail if he’s caught, you bet it is.
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