Panic-buying in UK will return ahead of Brexit
transition end, experts say
British food industry expects EU exit to be a bigger
blow to supply chains than the coronavirus.
By EMILIO
CASALICCHIO 4/1/20, 12:51 PM CET Updated 4/5/20, 6:54 AM CET
LONDON —
Britons got a taste of what a food shortage might look like during the
coronavirus pandemic, and it does not bode well for Brexit.
The
coronavirus crisis has seen worried Brits panic buy toilet paper and food as
the virus sweeps across the globe. For most, it is the first time in living
memory that food availability has been reduced, caused by the just-in-time
supply chains being unable to cope with the sudden increase in demand, despite
no shortage of supply.
Research
from consumer analysis firm Kantar found supermarket sales for March topped
those usually seen during Christmas, with an average household buying five
days’ worth of extra groceries. Social media was awash with images of bare
shelves.
Experts
have warned that the U.K. public, drawing on such coronavirus experiences,
could eschew their previous complacency around Brexit and rush to the shops to
stockpile again as the transition period draws to a close.
When a
no-deal Brexit loomed last year, with warnings that disruption at the U.K.
border with the EU could lead to food shortages, only a small number of people
listened. Twice, Britain came within days of a no-deal departure, but an army
of shoppers did not descend on stores.
“In a
no-deal Brexit situation, with tariffs and regulatory checks, some supplies
could stop overnight” — Dominic Goudie, head of international trade at the Food
and Drink Federation
Things will
be different this time, experts say, and not just because there will be
guaranteed disruptions at the EU-U.K. border, deal or no deal. Consumer
psychologist Dr. Cathrine Jansson-Boyd said Brits will “definitely” begin
panic-buying again, assuming they have not run out of their coronavirus
stockpiles. “They will think, ‘I’ve been through this recently, I’m worried
about it, let’s start thinking about what happens if this becomes reality,’”
she said.
Erik
Millstone, a University of Sussex professor with expertise in food safety,
agreed. “It is clear that when people anticipate shortages they rush to the
shops to try to stock up, and exhortations [by the government against this] on
their own have been proven insufficient.”
A Cabinet
Office spokesperson said: “We are confident in the resilience of our supply
chains. There is no need for citizens to stockpile now or in the future.”
Not quite
in time
The
coronavirus outbreak highlighted the problems with the so-called just-in-time
supply chains. In the current system, stores hold little in the way of stock
beyond what is on the shelves and in transit. Supplies are delivered regularly
in small quantities, meaning costs can be kept low and problems with products
can be rectified easily. That is why the pandemic led to in-store shortages.
Such a
"lean supply chain" for groceries doesn’t have any flexibility to
deal with situations of panic-buying, said Dr. Sam Roscoe, a senior lecturer in
operations management at the University of Sussex Business School.
“A
just-in-time philosophy is all about standardization, repetition and having
known demand. But with Brexit and the coronavirus, that demand is just not
known and [the industry] can’t forecast for it,” he added.
Dominic
Goudie, the head of international trade at the Food and Drink Federation,
insisted the supply chain is “actually pretty robust,” but warned that “the
Brexit impact on the supply chain would be worse than the coronavirus.”
“In a
no-deal Brexit situation, with tariffs and regulatory checks, some supplies
could stop overnight,” he said. The government has confirmed that the new
trading regime with the EU will involve new customs forms and checks, raising
the prospect of big delays, during which fresh food could rot at the border.
Another
concern is that delivery drivers who do not have the correct paperwork after
the end of the transition period could end up stuck. “[With the coronavirus,]
some drivers are worried that if they drive into another country they could be
at risk of infection or the borders could close and they could be stuck there,”
Goudie said. “In a Brexit situation ... drivers could get stuck if they do not
have the right paperwork or approvals. Some drivers might decide entering the
U.K is more trouble than it’s worth.”
Recipe for
disaster
There is
little in the way of workarounds to the problem. Ahead of the earlier Brexit
dates in 2019, some stores did build a stockpile of goods, but Goudie said it's
not a perfect solution. “There is only so much you can store, especially in
safe and hygienic conditions,” he explained. “And if the end of the coronavirus
crisis feeds straight into the peak Christmas period ... it’s a recipe for
disaster.”
Millstone,
from Sussex University, said the coronavirus crisis should “influence the
policy preferences of the government in its negotiations about the future
relationship with the EU.”
He
dismissed suggestions that the U.K. could import fresh produce from elsewhere
to account for any loss from EU supply chains. “Many other places have health
limitations and could be at even greater risk of disruption,” he said. “It is
therefore a bad idea to discard or weaken links with continental supplies.”
He added
that the U.K. would be unable to feed its population through domestic
production alone without at least a year of planning, and that diets would have
to change drastically and would not be sufficient for health purposes.
Shadow
Environment Secretary Luke Pollard issued a thinly veiled warning to the
government. He said after the experience of the coronavirus, the public will
“want politicians to make food supply even more robust — not more precarious.”
He added: “Certainty will have a greater political currency for people because
of their lived experience during the virus.”
CORRECTION:
An earlier version of this article misspelled Dr. Cathrine Jansson-Boyd's name.
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