The Guardian view on a second Trump presidency:
things could only get worse
Editorial
Over the holidays, this column will explore next
year’s urgent issues. Today we look at the danger posed by the former
president’s bid for reelection
Thu 28 Dec
2023 13.00 EST
The great
spectre haunting 2024 is the threat of Donald Trump triumphing in November’s
election. A second stint in the Oval Office would have grim repercussions for
the US and the world. He dominates the Republican race for the presidential
candidacy, while recent polls showed him beating Joe Biden in five of the six
key battleground states, and besting the president on issues including the
economy and national security. The Biden administration has overseen a striking
economic recovery in tough global conditions, but voters don’t feel the
improvement. The president’s handling of the war in Gaza is alienating core
supporters. He inspires little enthusiasm.
Democrats
point out that there’s a long way to go and that November’s off-year election
results point to a brighter picture. Mr Trump faces a dizzying array of legal
cases, though the most significant may not move to a trial before the election.
While they boost the belief of diehard admirers that he is being persecuted,
some supporters say he should not stand if convicted. It’s not impossible that
he might run from a prison cell.
Mr Trump is
already teeing voters up to declare a Biden victory fraudulent again. Election
officials have been bombarded with death threats. Convictions for the January 6
storming of the Capitol were welcome and necessary, but his supporters remain
armed and dangerous.
What would
Mr Trump’s return to the White House mean for America and the world? Nothing
good. For all the volatility of his presidency, he delivered on key pledges for
his followers: his supreme court appointments led to the overturning of Roe v
Wade. Authoritarians don’t improve with power: quite the opposite. Mr Trump’s
first term began with “alternative facts” about his inauguration and ended with
the big lie that the 2020 election was stolen from him. His recent statements
make 2016’s inflammatory rhetoric look almost mealy-mouthed. He declared that
he would be a dictator, though only on “day one”, because “I want a wall and I
want to drill, drill, drill”. His language is not merely racist but echoes the
invective of Nazi Germany: immigrants are “poisoning the blood of our country”,
while “communists, Marxists, fascists and the radical-left thugs” are “vermin”.
Sycophantic state
What is
truly alarming this time is not merely that he has declared his intentions loud
and clear, it is that his backers have drawn up action plans to implement his
talking points, and that he faces fewer political, institutional or legal
constraints. “You cannot count on those institutions to restrain him,” said
former Republican congresswoman Liz Cheney, who fears that her country is
“sleepwalking into dictatorship”. Ms Cheney is a rare exception to the rule
that Republican politicians have ultimately fallen into line even when they
briefly balked at his extremes. A re-elected President Trump would benefit from
a more compliant Congress (though there’s speculation that Democrats might win
back the House while the GOP takes the Senate). And having set out his stall,
he could claim a mandate from the people.
He would
not appoint those who might thwart his will this time. “The lesson he learned
was to hire sycophants,” his former chief of staff John Kelly observed. He
boasts that he would “dismantle the deep state”, clearing out career employees
and replacing them with appointees he could fire at will. Intimidation –
siccing his base on those who impede him – would always be an option. He has
suggested that Gen Mark Milley, the outgoing chairman of the joint chiefs of
staff, deserved to be put to death.
Legal
challenges to his policies would face a harder path – the supreme court now has
a conservative supermajority, with three Trump appointees, and he similarly
stacked lower levels of the judiciary. He is preparing plans to turn the power
of the state against opponents and critics, and boasting of “retribution” for
those who hindered his attempt to steal the last election. He has warned that
he would urge his attorney general to indict any political rival even without
known grounds, saying: “I don’t know. Indict him on income tax evasion.” His
associates have reportedly begun drafting plans to deploy the military against
civil demonstrations – as he wanted to do against Black Lives Matter protests
in 2020. One would hope that military leaders would oppose this. But it would
be complacent to assume that.
Politics of hate
On the
international front, the battle against global heating would be struck a
catastrophic blow. A second Trump presidency would clearly be good for Vladimir
Putin and bad for Ukraine and Nato, which the US could well leave. Mr Trump’s
transactional approach to foreign policy puts himself first, and has only the
most narrow and short-term conception of US interests. Allies such as South
Korea are already contemplating their own nuclear deterrents. He would seek to
hammer China on trade again, and Republicans would encourage him to go further
on other fronts, but his admiration for autocrats might allow him to come to
terms with Xi Jinping on some issues – notably, Taiwan’s future. Overall, his
ignorance, arrogance and erratic nature could be as damaging as his pursuit of
specific goals.
The far
right around the world would be emboldened by his victory. Mr Trump is in large
part a symptom of our times, but he has encouraged and enabled others in his
mould at home and abroad. The social fabric has been damaged by a style of
politics in which hatred is the organising principle. Anti-Asian hate crime
surged following his racist rhetoric about the “Chinese virus” and “kung flu”.
A defeat for Mr Trump would not in itself be sufficient to defeat Trumpism. But
it is necessary.
The
Democrats cannot campaign only on the threat that Mr Trump poses. They must
speak to broader concerns too. But focusing on the likely consequences of his
re-election is critical to ensuring that voters understand the choice they are
making – including by not voting, or by backing a candidate other than Mr
Biden. Think of the way that the voter backlash against the destruction of
abortion rights was essential for Democrats in the 2022 midterms and has been
evident in ballot measures more recently, with voters opting to preserve or
expand access.
Of course,
Mr Trump might not be able to fully implement his nightmarish boasts in office.
But he would do more than enough. Drive off a cliff and you might live to tell
the tale. But you can’t count on survival – and you can be certain of damage.
The US, and the world, cannot afford a second term for Mr Trump.
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