2020
ELECTIONS
Biden’s oil slip gives Trump campaign hope in
Pa., Texas
But Democrats in the Rust Belt state shrugged.
By HOLLY OTTERBEIN,
BEN LEFEBVRE and ZACK COLMAN
10/23/2020
07:48 PM EDT
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/23/biden-oil-pennsylvania-texas-432043
PHILADELPHIA
— Joe Biden’s plan to move to a clean energy economy isn't new to those who've
been paying attention: For months, he's promised to put the country on a path
to be carbon-neutral by 2050.
But Biden,
who's been extraordinarily cautious throughout the campaign while talking about
fossil fuels, clearly believes he botched his own strategy on Thursday night.
Within
minutes of the debate, where he said he wanted to transition away from the oil
industry, Biden walked back his remarks with reporters. On Friday, his running
mate Kamala Harris reaffirmed the ticket’s support for fracking. And two
members of Congress from oil- and gas-rich areas immediately distanced
themselves from the Democratic nominee.
So with
only 11 days to go until the election, Biden and other Democrats are doing
clean-up duty at precisely the wrong time.
“We're not
getting rid of fossil fuels,” Biden told reporters after the debate. “We're
getting rid of the subsidies for fossil fuels, but we're not getting rid of
fossil fuels for a long time.”
President
Donald Trump’s campaign has spent the day rejoicing at Biden’s remarks, crowing
on a call with media outlets on Friday it “put the nail in the coffin” for him
in Pennsylvania. But in a sign of their confidence here in the presidential
race, many Democrats in the critical battleground state, including those in
fracking country, are largely shrugging it off.
“I don’t
think it’s going to be an issue,” said Pennsylvania Democratic Lt. Gov. John
Fetterman, who hails from the western side of the state, where there's been a
fracking boom. “I think if you are fundamentally committed to or work in that
industry, you’ve already made up your mind.”
Both 2020
candidates have lavished attention to the natural gas industry in Pennsylvania,
the likely tipping-point state in the Electoral College. Trump has painted his
opponent as hostile to fossil fuels, seeing an opportunity to pick up more
votes in his strongholds in the western and northeastern parts of the state
where there are numerous gas wells. In hopes of limiting his losses in those
areas, or even flipping some, Biden has typically sought to be extra careful
while talking about fracking and energy.
Biden’s
campaign has simultaneously embraced a liberal green jobs plan that is large
enough to please progressive activists — and taken pains to express opposition
to a fracking ban, including at debates and a campaign stop in Pittsburgh
earlier this year. His team has said the country can achieve net zero-emissions
by 2050 without eliminating fossil fuels by utilizing tools such as
carbon-capture technology.
Biden,
however, has struggled at times to explain the particulars of his climate plan.
He has garbled his position on fracking, which Trump’s campaign has seized on
to make false claims. Asked at a 2019 debate whether there would be a role for
coal and fracking in a Biden administration, he said, “No, we would — we would
work it out,” before his campaign later clarified he didn’t support a ban.
“It
absolutely helps Trump, not only in Pennsylvania, but also in Texas, Ohio and
several other key states,” said Charlie Gerow, a GOP strategist in Pennsylvania
who has worked on presidential campaigns. “I think even Biden realized that he
stepped in it last night. You could see him trying to back-walk it.”
Democratic
Reps. Kendra Horn of Oklahoma and Xochitl Torres Small of New Mexico, who
represent areas dependent on fossil fuel extraction, quickly distanced
themselves from Biden’s comments.
“I disagree
with VP Biden's statement tonight,” Torres Small said in a tweet. “Energy is
part of the backbone of New Mexico’s economy. We need to work together to
promote responsible energy production and stop climate change, not demonize a
single industry.”
State Sen.
John Yudichak, a former Democrat who registered as an independent last year in
the wake of big GOP victories around his northeastern Pennsylvania district,
urged Biden to further clarify his comments when he campaigns in the state’s
Luzerne County on Saturday. Yudichak has endorsed Biden but also repeatedly
pushed him to embrace the gas industry.
“The vice
president’s comment about ending oil and gas development in the very near
future certainly hurts his chance to lock down working-class voters in
northeastern Pennsylvania and throughout Pennsylvania,” Yudichak said. “We can’t
dismiss building-trade, construction trade workers. We need to make sure that
they don’t feel forgotten.”
Democrats
in Pennsylvania expressed confidence that Biden’s prompt walk-back means the
fundamental dynamics in the race won't change. Biden is leading Trump in the
state by 5 to 6 percentage points and few voters report they are undecided.
Democrats believe Biden has already won over some fracking supporters at the
margins, as they had hoped. They also said fracking is not a top issue for the
suburban women Trump needs to win over.
“It may
have an impact in some of the more rural counties out here in southwestern
Pennsylvania where Donald Trump was already going to win. Maybe it peels some
votes off there,” said Mike Mikus, a Pittsburgh-based Democratic strategist.
“But based on all the polling I’ve seen statewide, it’s not enough to close the
gap because it's a pretty big gap.”
Still,
Mikus said Biden “was not clear last night when he answered it, which is why he
had to address it right before getting on the plane.”
It’s
unclear whether the Trump campaign can make Biden pay for his oil slip.
Throughout the year, Trump has jumped from one line of attack on Biden to
another, but nothing has really stuck.
Bobby “Mac”
McAuliffe, director of Pennsylvania’s United Steelworkers District 10, also
said many oil and gas workers in the union have already seen their prospects
hurt because of the dive in fuel demand caused by the pandemic.
“USW
members in Pennsylvania are deeply concerned about the economy and whether it
will rebound after the loss of thousands of Pennsylvania jobs that resulted
from the sustained lack of federal leadership,” he said. “Our members also
indicated that their top concern is affordable health care, which between the
still raging pandemic and the push to kill the Affordable Care Act remains
front and center in this election.”
Markets
have begun frowning on oil and gas. Major companies like BP are planning to
deepen a transition to renewable energy, the Dow Jones Industrial Average delisted
Exxon Mobil in August, and even before the pandemic-induced recession, banks
were shying away from debt-laden shale drillers that consistently failed to
deliver promised returns. The energy sector, which is largely composed of oil
and gas companies, also has been the worst-performing on the S&P 500.
If Biden
does emerge unscathed by his remarks Thursday, it may partly be due to his
centrist brand. In 2016, Trump was seen as more moderate than Hillary Clinton,
who was slammed after she said “we're going to put a lot of coal miners and
coal companies out of business.” This year, polls show Biden is viewed by
voters as more down-the-middle than Trump.
After the
debate, Robert Heenan, a Pennsylvania-based second vice president at the
International Union of Operating Engineers, said of Biden’s comments, “What the
hell was that about?”
But Heenan
said he is sticking with Biden — and doesn’t think he’ll lose rank-and-file
members over his remarks — because “I know he’s not going to hurt the worke
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